I posted this as neutral because it can go either way from here. I shorted the future 2 days ago but did not buy TMV in my 401k.
For those who are short, this is a take profit area if support holds. I will put a tight stop loss here. A long position can be taken here depending on the price action. If it breaks support and the uptrend line, short at an...
TBT had a long term breakout last November. Looks like it is working on a re-test. A close about $43 might be a game changer (to confirm the death of bond bull market). It is still too early to make the call.
One of the most obvious trades out there. Pullback to mean would be KILLER value. Will be watching this closely and using Marty Armstrong's Socrates levels for confirmation.
There is certainly a chance we continue down further to that next support trend line before pulling back. In that instance we may see a H&S formation occur with the right shoulder at fib.
Hindsight traded 101 but a perfect example of a bull recoil trade ... that I completely missed !
Held range July til Sep. Gapped up and rallied into 33
(that move eroded long term bearish trend line)
Retraced to 50% at 31 and then took off
Bonds usually bounce after huge sell offs
before continuing to sell off. 2013 multi week sell off had
mid week bounces to roughly 50% of previous week's range.
good spot to buy some longer dated calls (dec?) at 126'235
for a bounce next week to around high 127s or low 128s+.
RSI lowest in years, closed 4 days outside lower BB, very oversold.
TBT had a great run for the past several months and is now at resistance. Note the dominating trend is still down.
We need to see a breakout, a higher low, and a higher high to confirm the trend change.
Please forgive for the poor title choice. TLT coming into contact with a multiple points of resistance: the 50d ma as well as the 138 line. Momentum a key driver of the rally in lower bond yields appears to be fading. Although I still think yields head much lower in the US, now is not the time to hold a big long position.