TLT formed clear H&S, as yield rises, both bond and gold should sell off
-pretty straightforward, when TLT break up from the TL/pattern SPX tends to pullback. Sometimes the breakout is not decisive and need double confirmation ..the struggling prolonged ~ -according to COT spec commercial is net long against the Lspec, so the crowd is betting rate going up
TLT is in the resistance area and if there's no prompt breakout we should see a pullback. These are my levels of interests. This is not a short call but an observation.
Inflation expectations are negatively correlated with the value of US Dollar. This chart gives you two potential trade signals 1 - If there is big divergence btw DXY and Inflation expectations, you can bet on a reversion 2 - When RSI is overbought or oversold, you can trade bonds and USD for a correction Current signal is a moderate short USD or long TLT
I can see Head and shoulder in 2 hourly chart and looks bearish.
China 10y yields lead US yields When spread is outside of BB, US yields should move in the coming weeks. Also, China 10Y yields track Copper prices Source: www.mcoscillator.com
Very high correlation btw EUBUND, TLT, JPYUSD, and Gold... time to go long all. With iron ore and industrial commodities starting to sell off, expect lower yields everywhere. SPX is also at risk! due to very high correlation with USDJPY
I posted this as neutral because it can go either way from here. I shorted the future 2 days ago but did not buy TMV in my 401k. For those who are short, this is a take profit area if support holds. I will put a tight stop loss here. A long position can be taken here depending on the price action. If it breaks support and the uptrend line, short at an...
EARNINGS CIEN announces earnings on 8/31 (Thursday) before market open. Due to the size of the underlying, I would probably go short straddle or iron fly here, as a short strangle and/or iron condor really don't pay. The Sept 8th 24 short straddle is currently paying a 2.35 credit at the door with break evens wide of the expected move, while the Sept 8th...
... , one high implied volatility (HTZ), two low implied volatility (TLT, GLD), and one long-dated bullish assumption oil trade (XOP). High Implied Volatility HTZ "Monied" Covered Call Buy 100 Shares at 16.96 Sell Oct 20th 15 call 13.99 db (your cost basis in the shares) 1.01 max profit if called away at 15 Notes: Roll the short call out for additional cost...
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Breaking out after multi-months consolidation. Awaiting a better entry in the days to come.
Waiting for a chance to go long on TLT on a retrace.