TBT on the 30 minute time frame shows a trend up in an ascending parallel channel now at the bottom of the channel where it could go up or breakdown and go under the channel. The ZL MACD suggests some bullish divergence while the dual TF RS indicator and the ADX oscillator are non-commital. The immediate recent short term volume profile with a POC line above...
On this 4H chart- TMV the leverage bear Treasuries ETF has been trending up in a parallel channel. AT present it bounced from the top of the channel and is heading down to the bottom of the channel. It is there that I will trade long where the bottom of the channel is confluent with the mean VWAP providing an overlap of dynamic support. Near that same level is...
The TLT ETF appears to have formed a potential short-term bottom, characterized by a double bottom pattern on the weekly chart. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is an exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. This ETF focuses on providing investors with exposure to long-term U.S. government bonds.
Not calling a bottom in bonds here, but the extreme monthly RSI of this SPY/TLT chart is impressive. Bonds broke down again over the summer but may be forming a double bottom. Could bonds finally get a serious bid? This charts says it's possible, but exact timing may be difficult to do.
The technical weekly uptrend that yields have formed is rather astonishing. The sheer power of this move suggests likely more upside yields. Some basic measured moves suggest a potential whopping 5.7% on the 20 year. Imagine TLT long bond traders! Nothing is probable but it makes you wonder if inflation is becoming more entrenched since the bond market is very...
Bill Hackman is right, yields are going higher! There have been discussions as to where the yield is going from here. We believe they are going higher based on the the current re-accumulation schematic. This chart will break out and it's not a bull trap. We could see 5.5%-6.5% rates. NOT-FINANCIAL-ADVICE
TMV on the one-hour chart tested two standard deviations above the mean VWAP in both late May and early July it fell to one standard deviation below VWAP but then rose sharply into beyond the two standard deviations line ( thick red ) ascending into a YTD high. I believe that this is due to the recent federal debt creditworthiness downgrade. The threatened...
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF seeks to track the investment results of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the "underlying index"). The fund will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of the underlying index, and it will invest at least 90% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities that the advisor believes will help the fund...
If we get above the threshold - real chaos could ensure. Watch this level.
The chart posted is that of the TLT we seem to have made another wave B low I would look to see it now hold and rally back to 103.1 this week
... for an .86 credit. Comments: Laddering out at better strikes than I've got on currently, targeting the 16 delta strike, wherever that lies. I doubt the underlying goes this low, but if it does, I'm fine with taking assignment of shares and selling call against.
... for a .79 credit. Comments: Hitting on some of those treasuries ... . Targeting the 16 delta strike. I'm fine with either getting assigned shares and proceeding to sell call against or taking the risk premium and going home.
TLT as shown on a 30 minute chart shows TLT in a narrow range last week and then a pivot down to begin this week followed by a downtrend and a small correction until then the fed news of the rate hike came out. Today the general market dropped after some federal financial data came out and a treasury auction was a dud bond auction with little...
Long duration treasury ETF's have long been touted as hedges against risk and inflation. However, treasury prices and rates have an inverse relationship. When the US Treasury issues new bonds during a rate hiking cycle, it depresses the prices of the long duration treasuries within these ETFs. Conversely, when rates reach their peak and subsequently start to...
... for a .89/contract credit. Comments: Here, targeting the 16 delta strike in the 20 year+ paper exchange-traded fund to round out short put rungs in the third quarter. I may continue adding rungs into 2024 if the underlying continues to hang around this level, since the Fed is supposedly forecast to cut rates at some point going forward.
On this 4H Chart TMF has rallied in the past week about 9% as the reports of the impetus of inflation has diminished. On the zero-lag MACD, the lines are staying above the histogram which has not converted from negative to positive. The dual time frame RSI showing low 1 hour TF in blue and daily TF in black has the lower crossing over the higher both at...
.... for a .73 credit. Comments: The third rung of a TLT short put ladder. Will look to add at better strikes should we get additional weakness.
TBT is going to take another swing now that interest rates are going up. Fundamentally, Treasuries and other bonds will go down on their real face value because their yield is lower than the new going rate. Inverse EFTs like TBT will go up when Treasuries go down. On the w Chart chart, price is sitting above the POC line of the volume profile where there...