The chart posted is the last bullish possible wave structure . within the sideways movement since oct cycles We are setting up for a MAJOR PANIC INTO AUG 25th and a lower low in oct 10 week trade with this in mind
TMV is an ETF Shorting the Treasuries. On the 2H chart, price is rising as the treasuries are suffering value contraction while interest rates are steady or projected to rise. The chart shows rising volumes, upwards volatility as well as a PV Trend demonstrating trend strength. I see these all as confirmatory for bullish momentum. I will take a long trade into...
... for a .68 credit. Comments: The second rung of a TLT short put ladder ... . Selling around the 16 delta strike here.
... for a .75 credit. Comments: Continuing to build out rungs in 20-year plus maturity paper, targeting the 16 delta strike to emulate an equities/bond mix in my portfolio using short puts, particularly since TLT 30-day is actually greater than that in SPY (15.1% for the former; 13.0% for the latter). As usual, I'm fine with taking assignment of shares at this...
It looks like we are turning over. Coupled with gigantic short positioning of speculators on bonds (highest in history bsed on the COT Data), the chart indicates that yields will fall again. Why would they fall? Because of a flight to saftey and/or a recession. I am keeping it very simple, I just buy Bonds via ETF. I am long TLT, IEF and SHY. With that trade,...
... for .60 credit. Comments: With 30-day IV higher than in SPY, selling some premium in 20-year maturity paper, targeting the 16 delta strike, with the plan being to build out a multi-rung ladder.
Name: TLT - iShares 20-year bond ETF Time Frame: 15mins, daily chart Direction: long Comment: I have a promising investment opportunity to share with you. After careful analysis, I believe interest rates have reached their peak, indicating a favorable outlook for bonds. In particular, the iShares 20-year bond ETF (TLT) is exhibiting all the right signs for...
Observable for weeks now, and recently, the divergence is much more pronounced. What I am referring to are that the equity markets appear to be more and more bullish, breaking out of trendlines; while the leading indicators (TIP, TLT, JNK and inversely VXX) show an imminent deterioration, about to breakdown of trendlines. The combined US equity markets and...
This probably is not a good sign for the SP:SPX , as these assets are highly correlated (0.88) and normally AMEX:CPER leads the business cycle. Also, the TVC:VIX is back above 20 and NASDAQ:TLT hasn't resume its downtrend. Even the dollar AMEX:UUP is showing strength again. I'm 87% in cash and also have tighten all my stops. Let's wait and see if the...
On the daily chart- I have plotted the TLT (Long Bond Leveraged) ETF vs the TBT (Short Inverse) as a ratio. The ratio is running on a cycle between high and low. On the chart for reference is a Hull Moving Average of 20 days. A more frequency cyling could be achieved with a paid Tradingview subscription and a charting time frame of 2 or 4 hours. For...
to 125 -122 area looks likely soon. I expect a fast move down after all this consolidation, from there it's a strong buy. Good luck!
Here is my road map for TLT... T-Bonds This will have significant ramifications across many correlated markets. Think ES, DXY, Gold etc... I believe we close to embarking on a C wave move up to the opposing upper channel line. This could take on a variety of shapes/slopes. Time will tell. The bigger move ahead is down... although the move ahead will be worth...
The TLT has been mostly chopping sideways for the last 4 months, and while it is still directionless, it has been able to stay above it's cycle lows and not roll over to retest them. This consolidation is looking more and more healthy and if we can finally get some closes above 109, this could finally initiate a second leg higher to those Q2 2022 levels. Started...
TBT, the Long Rate Fund; Or short TLT fund is showing signs of strength on the MACD and RSI; with divergences. The previous month saw high volume indicating interest around the current price levels. It is sitting at the 200 SMA. Currently much of the market is pricing in rate drops. However, we have have FOMC on May 2nd, and have been hearing roomers of another...
The S&P500 is diverging from the TLT ETF. We have seen this happen many times over the course of 2021, 2022, 2023. Each time this happened, stocks ended up playing catch up to the downside. As yields and bonds typically react first to the incoming macro data, stocks seem to always get the memo last. Is this time different? Can stocks rally as bonds fall?
I forsee rates continuing to increase. Banking to continue having a hard time, the value of the dollar to get stronger, and the price of equities to decrease due to less attractive opportunity costs vs bonds. I think a lot of people are not expecting this, and instead were expecting the fed to pause and for a bull market to begin. I think that equities will be re...
In this update we review the recent price action in #TLT and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target