Bonds have stabilized at lows, and have started to form a range, as we suggested yesterday. We have started to find value just above 128'10, and below 128'24, the exact range we identified in the last report. After plummeting two full handles since the beginning of 2022 it was time for ZN to reach some sort of equilibrium before its next move. From here we...
The Japanese yen has edged higher and is back below the 116 level. Still, the yen remains vulnerable, especially with US treasury yields moving higher. Earlier in the week, USD/JPY broke above116 line for the first time since January 2017. The dollar has managed to push the yen to 5-year lows on the back of rising US Treasury yields. The 10-year yield, which...
Not much to say here. In my honest opinion, Bonds are on watch. We could very clearly see an inversion here. Especially if the Fed raises rate or even enters QT.
TLT looks to be close to finding a bottom. I could see TLT finding a bottom in the $138-141 range then basing for a couple of weeks before rallying higher in early November. Key dates and levels on the chart. My macro thesis is that we're at the start of a larger pullback in markets and money will flow to treasuries as a safety net. Dates align on both the S&P...
The Canadian dollar continues to show strong movement early in the New Year. USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2674, down 0.56% on the day. The first tier-1 events in 2022 out of the US disappointed, missing their estimates. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December slowed to 58.7, missing the consensus of 60.0 and below the November reading of 61.1 points. The PMI...
Bonds have tumbled off soaring yields. Rising inflation seems to be one of the key drivers, along with paradoxically increasing risk on sentiment in stocks, as the indexes are testing new highs again. ZN smashed through support in 130 handle. We saw absolutely no support from 130'00, the final barrier to the 129 handle, and even less from 129'26, the first...
Hello! I have been away for over a year now. I'm sorry for my absence. I have been working on a new business venture. I now have more time on my hands to produce charts again! With that said. We are facing here a very clear inversion in bonds as the bond market sees buying and selling. Keep an eye on that as the market is pricing in a rate hike in my honest opinion.
Whatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years. No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten. Interestingly, if you...
Bonds have continued their slow decline trough support at 130'07 and are hovering just above 130'00. We are starting to see support form in the middle of the vacuum zone between these two levels, confirmed by two green triangles forming on the KRI. Both Kovach momentum indicators have dropped precipitously, which might indicate that we are staring to become...
10 year US notes coming out of a channel, possibly starting to make a higher degree correction which can limit the upside for USDJPY. Nice resistance on USDJPY is at 114 where A-B-C rally can come to an end, at the former wave four, and somewhere around 50-61.8% Fib retracement levels.
Bonds have consolidated as we have expected. We are seeing strong support at 130'19, and appear to be forming a flag pattern bounded by 130'07, and 131'02. The Kovach OBV is trending up slightly, suggesting a small bull bias. From here it could go either way. The Fed is discussing tightening, which would be bearish for bonds, but persistent risk off sentiment...
Trickty!! is it a h&S ? 2x shoulder? Looks a smidge high. and a smidge bullish. RSI is wide for volatility so no help. MACD slightly bullish. Within a wedge/bearish continuation too.... TOUGH! If I had to guess, I'd guess south.
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In the this update we review the current cycle in the !0 Year t--Notes and identify a high probability trade location
Bonds have encroached on the upper bound of the range, hitting our target at 131'02. We have inched above that at present and are running into some resistance as identified by two triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably. If the bull bias continues watch for ZN to cross the vacuum zone to 131'12. If we pull back a bit, then watch for it to...
Who sets interest rates? Is it the central banks... or is it the free market? Given that the FED's dovish approach clashes directly with this forecast, it would suggest that it is the latter. My opinion: the FED isn't a leader, but a follower of the worst kind. Consistently making mistakes at the tops and bottoms of markets. If the market pushes rates higher for...
Back in August I posted a Descending Broadening Wedge setup where we were at a potential bottom and today it would seem that we have successfully broken out of said wedge and back tested as support and are looking to finish the measure move that will take us to a minimum target of 1.77. If you look on a timeframe like the weekly we have potential to go all the...
The JNK/TLT ratio chart visualizes investors' position in greed and safe bonds. An increase means more greed in the market, corresponding with an increase in equities. Based on where we are, I am expecting one last run in the stock market, reaching the top of our resistance trend-line. I have added a fractal to support this thesis.