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MSTR still in wave 4 rangeNASDAQ:MSTR Price is still in a wave (IV) which are expected to be long and drawn out, yet shallow which is what we have here. I don’t expect wave (V) to kick in until Bitcoin moves. Wave (V) has an expected of the R3 daily pivot at $1039 but will overextend if Bitcoin does. Price has fallen out of the lower channel boundary and sitting at the weekly pivot, still above the weekly 200EMA so the outlook us bullish. wave (4) may complete at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $203. For now I am waiting to see what happens before entering but believe good opportunities are setting up. Safe trading
NASDAQ:MSTR
by Maddox_Metrics
MSTR Wave II bottom?NASDAQ:MSTR is finally catching a bid from the triple support zone of the Fibonacci golden pocket, S1 pivot and High Volume Node. It must overcome the daily 200EMA to add confidence to a reversal and wave II bottom being in. Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence from oversold. Vanguard disclosed massive MSTR holdings ad the sentiment is awful online adding confluence to a bottom soon. Wave III target is the R5 daily pivot $544, losing the support zone has a downside target of $232 Safe trading
NASDAQ:MSTR
by Maddox_Metrics
1
MARA Wave III Underway!Local Analysis / Targets / Elliot Wave MARA appears to have begun wave III with a rally out of the range and above the daily 200EMA. Wave III has a price target of the High Volume Node resistance at $31 but with the current tailwindsI I expect to overextend. RSI is overbought and there is looming resistance from the wave 1 high just ahead. Traders should be cautious of this resistance and expect a range below for a while. Standard Deviation Band Analysis Standard deviation bands shows price coming into the fair value regression line as resistance. A breakout above this will bring up the SD+2 threshold target of $55. Bands offered a great buy opportunity when price dipped into the green opportunity zone at $3. Safe trading
NASDAQ:MARA
by Maddox_Metrics
SBET vs DFDV: Which Crypto Treasury Horse Will Run Fastest?SharpLink Gaming (SBET) and DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV) are prime examples of the MicroStrategy model applied to different digital assets, Ethereum and Solana, respectively. SharpLink Gaming, formerly an online gaming company, has made a dramatic and public pivot to become one of the world's largest corporate holders of Ether (ETH). Its strategy is to act as a direct and transparent vehicle for investors to gain exposure to the Ethereum ecosystem. The company actively raises significant capital through equity offerings, such as its recent multi-billion dollar ATM program, to fund its ETH acquisitions. It also generates yield by staking its ETH, which is a key part of its business model. The company's stock price and market narrative are now almost exclusively tied to the performance of its growing ETH treasury, making it a high-beta proxy for Ethereum. DeFi Development Corp. has a similar, dedicated focus on Solana (SOL). The company's business is centered on accumulating, compounding, and providing exposure to SOL. DFDV's core strategy is to grow its "SOL per share" metric, which is its equivalent to MicroStrategy's Bitcoin per share. To achieve this, DFDV also engages in aggressive capital raises. Like SharpLink, it also generates revenue by actively participating in the ecosystem through staking, operating its own validator nodes, and exploring other on-chain opportunities. In essence, both companies have fundamentally transformed their business models to serve as publicly-traded, regulated treasury vehicles for their respective assets. They both use financial engineering, like capital raises, to grow their holdings and create a leveraged play for investors. The primary difference is the underlying asset—ETH for SBET and SOL for DFDV—and the specific ecosystem activities they engage in to generate additional value beyond simple price appreciation. Market Cap Comparing the market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) is crucial for understanding the capital flows needed for one to outperform the other. As of late August 2025, ETH's market cap is approximately $429 billion, while SOL's is about $87 billion, meaning ETH is nearly 5 times larger. For SOL to outperform ETH, it must grow at a much faster rate. Due to its smaller size, SOL requires a proportionally smaller amount of new capital to achieve a significant price increase. For example, to close the market cap gap by 10%, SOL would need an additional $43 billion in inflows, which would cause its price to more than double. In contrast, for ETH to achieve the same proportional gain (e.g., a 10% increase), it would need over $40 billion in new capital inflows. Essentially, SOL has a higher beta and a lower monetary hurdle to achieve significant percentage gains. A steady inflow of tens of billions of dollars would have a much more dramatic impact on SOL's price than on ETH's. However, with ETH's sheer size and institutional backing, particularly with the recent launch of spot ETFs, it can absorb and channel much larger capital flows, which is a key reason its price is less volatile. Therefore, SOL's smaller size makes it more sensitive to inflows, making it easier for it to outperform ETH on a percentage basis, especially during a retail-driven bull market. Impact of Spot ETFs A significant number of spot Ethereum ETFs have already been approved and are trading in the United States. Following the approval of the initial 19b-4 filings in May 2024, the SEC subsequently declared several S-1 registration statements effective in July 2024, allowing the ETFs to begin trading. There are currently nine SEC-approved spot ETH ETFs from major issuers like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale. There are currently no approved SOL spot ETFs in the United States. However, several applications are under active consideration by the SEC. Filings from major issuers such as Bitwise and 21Shares have been submitted, but the SEC has consistently delayed its decision on them. There is a general expectation that if the SEC continues to follow the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum, a Solana ETF could be the next in line for approval. In summary, a clear distinction exists: ETH spot ETFs are a reality, with multiple products already trading, while SOL spot ETFs are still in the application and review phase, awaiting a decision from the SEC. Summary While ETH has had relative outperformance in August 2025 against Bitcoin and most large-cap alts, the approval of Solana spot ETFs will provide a significant tailwind for SOL and SOL treasury companies like DFDV. While Ethereum is the strongest horse among the alts, has experienced no downtime, and gas fee transactions on the main chain have become much cheaper than they were the last cycle, hot money will quickly allocate capital towards the highest-beta alts and crypto treasury companies as ETFs are approved; possibly on a rolling basis if underlying assets are approved at different times in Q4. However, expect ETH and SBET to do exceptional through 2026 as ETH hits mainstream adoption through ERC-20 based tokenized stocks, prediction markets, etc. and as spot ETF inflows accelerate.
NASDAQ:SBET
by Assume_Diptopia
$MARA Setting Up for A Huge Move?This stocks price action has been subdued far too long after they sold shares to investors but should be moving more aggressively alongside Bitcoin, being the second largest holder of BTC in its treasury. Price appears to have completed an awkward wave 1 potentially a leading diagonal with wave 2 now underway while price is under the daily and weekly 200EMA. Wave 2 target is a little bit lower in the Fibonacci retracement golden pocket and major High Volume Node support $13.19. Daily RSI has made its way lower currently showing bullish divergence. If the count is right wave 3 should be hard and fast! Bitcoin stocks have all had a decent retracement causing me to upgrade my Elliot Wave count to a completed macro wave 1 with wave 2 now underway, suggesting the best returns are still to come over the next months for this category asset class in wave 3! Analysis is invalidated if we go to new highs above $21.5 or lose $9.85 New long signals are certainly building in the DEMA PBR and Price Action strategies so keep an eye out on the Trade Signals Substack as we have made very food profits lately in these markets! Safe trading
NASDAQ:MARA
by Maddox_Metrics
3
US 10Y yield: Triangular Consolidation, next 6-7%I’ve spotted a well-known triangular pattern forming on the US 10-year Treasury yield. This appears to be the development of a large Wave 4. Wave E of Wave 4 may still be unfolding. Watch to see if it holds above the Wave C low at 3.9%. A breakout above resistance near 4.7% would confirm the pattern. The target zone is set between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of Waves 1 to 3, highlighted with a blue box between 6% and 7%. Could tariffs cause a major spike in yields—or will something else trigger it? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
TVC:TNXLong
by aibek
1
US10Y Technical Breakdown – Post-Moody’s DowngradeMoody’s has downgraded the US credit rating for the first time since 2011, citing rising debt levels and long-term fiscal challenges. This move sends a clear warning signal about America’s fiscal path and adds fresh uncertainty to markets already navigating interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks. Focus on the US 10-Year Treasury Yield as the market’s pulse on sovereign risk, inflation expectations, and future borrowing costs. Tracking its medium-term trend will provide crucial clues on market sentiment and risk appetite. Medium-Term Market Analysis (6-12 Months) 1. Structural Fiscal Risks This downgrade highlights growing concerns over the US debt trajectory and political gridlock around spending and debt ceilings. It’s less about an immediate crisis, more about long-term sustainability. 2. Rising Yields and Market Volatility The 10-year Treasury yield could move higher, beyond 4.60% we could see rates possibly testing previous resistance of 4.80% (Jan 2025) or 5.00% (Oct 2023). Higher yields mean increased borrowing costs, which can pressure interest-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate and add volatility to equities. 3. Federal Reserve’s Tough Balancing Act With bond yields edging up, the Fed faces a dilemma: delaying cuts further could risk inflation climbing higher. However, this downgrade raises the likelihood that the Fed could keep rates higher for longer than many investors expect. 4. Dollar and Capital Flow Shifts While a credit downgrade may initially pressure the US dollar, its safe-haven status remains strong. Global capital could increasingly look to alternatives like emerging markets or gold, leading to shifts in international financial flows. Perspective While Moody’s downgrade is a serious signal, it’s important to consider: 1) Political Leverage: Sometimes, rating agencies’ decisions can influence political negotiations. This downgrade may add pressure on US lawmakers to reach fiscal compromises. It’s a tool, not necessarily a verdict. 2) US Dollar & Debt Demand Resilience: Despite concerns, US Treasury securities remain the world’s primary safe asset, with global demand still robust. This could temper yield spikes and limit fallout. Some could view the downgrade as “priced in” to a degree, given ongoing debt ceiling battles and past political brinkmanship. If true, markets may react less dramatically than feared. Watch US 10-Year Yield: Key indicator to watch for shifts in risk sentiment and inflation expectations. Equities: Prepare for increased volatility; consider defensive sectors and value plays. Credit Markets: Monitor for widening spreads as risk aversion grows. Policy Signals: Fed communications and US political developments will be critical catalysts. This Moody’s downgrade isn’t just a headline, it’s a medium-term signal to recalibrate risk and position for a more uncertain fiscal backdrop.
TVC:US10Y
by JinDao_Tai
11
USTEC rose after avoiding Lutnick as a Treasury Secretary The Nasdaq index has surged, fueled by solid expectations surrounding Nvidia's Q3 earnings and the alleviation of uncertainty following the appointment of the new Treasury Secretary. Investors are breathing a sigh of relief as Howard Lutnick, a staunch supporter of Trump's tariff policies, has been nominated for Commerce Secretary rather than Treasury Secretary. In contrast, Kevin Warsh, who is running for Treasury Secretary, has openly criticized protectionist measures such as tariffs. This shift has heightened expectations that some economic issues stemming from Trump’s tariff policies will be mitigated. Furthermore, Wall Street consistently raises Nvidia's target stock price. Investors anticipate that Nvidia's Q3 earnings will surpass market consensus, and Wall Street confidently anticipates that the Q4 guidance will also exceed expectations. USTEC briefly tested the support at 20300 and rebounded to 20770. The index sustains upward momentum, holding above the trend line. If USTEC sustains its upward trend above the resistance at 20700, the index could gain upward momentum toward the 21250 high. Conversely, if USTEC fails to hold above the trend line and 20300, the index may fall further to 19950.
NASDAQ:NDX
by inkicho_exness
TLT +50% Every Time This Happens and It's Happening NowTLT/SPX Monthly RSI (8 Period Close) It makes sense to analyze the most common institutional portfolio allocation (Equities and Bonds) rather than Equities or Bonds separately. Most investors focus on Fed Funds, unemployment, the business cycle, rates, to analyze the bond market. But those metrics are poorly correlated to returns at best. When you focus on allocation, as in Bonds plus Equities, you start making some progress. That's exactly what this chart represents; where the money is going and when. Hint: it's going into Bonds. Soon. BBOT (Bonds Blast Off Time) is here
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by MarkLefevre
2
Bitcoin - Another sign that Fed credibility is waning.A Sick Feeling in the Belly of the Yield Curve Another sign that Fed credibility is waning. The socioeconomic point of view is that, as the Supercycle bear market develops, central banks will lose their mantle as being omnipotent directors of markets. Whereas in the bull market, central bankers like Alan “the Maestro” Greenspan were lauded because positive social mood was driving the stock market higher, in the bear market central bankers will be vilified as negative social mood causes a downtrend in stock prices. Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure Americans that the series of interest rate hikes that the central bank is embarking on would not tip the U.S. economy into recession. The bond market promptly ignored those soothing words and the yield curve flattened. A flattening yield curve, whereby the positive gap between short-dated bonds and long-dated bonds is narrowing, is a sign that the market is anticipating slower economic growth. When the yield curve inverts, with long-dated yields below short-dated, it has historically been a signal that an economic recession is on the horizon. That historical relationship is most generally related to the yield spread between 2-year yields and 10-year yields, and that yield curve has been flattening over the past year from 1.50% to around 0.20% where it is currently hovering. So, not quite inverted yet, but trending in that direction. However, in the so-called belly of the yield curve, the area between 5 and 10-year maturity, the message is already here. The chart below shows that the yield spread between 5 and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has declined precipitously over the last year and, yesterday, turned negative. This yield curve inversion is a clue that a 2-yr /10-yr (2s 10s in industry vernacular) inversion is probably on its way. Despite what the Fed says, a beast of a recession may be approaching. U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield Minus 5-Year Yield
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ferGOD
307
USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024) As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action. 1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials. 2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY. 3. Safe Haven Demand Waning The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen. Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment. 4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases. 5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback. 6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair. Conclusion Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance. Keywords: USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish, USDJPY analysis, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese yen, safe-haven demand, forex trading, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY key levels, USDJPY next week, trading USDJPY.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
10yr Treasury Yields Consolidate at Key 4.32% LevelThe world’s most important market, the 10yr US Treasury, is trading directly at a critical level. Going back years, the 4.32% level has served as reliable support/resistance, and today’s drop after peeking above that level yesterday has only emphasized the importance of that key level. At the same time, the 10yr Treasury yield has put in a series of lower highs and higher lows dating back to Q4 of last year, creating a symmetrical triangle pattern that could lead to an outbreak of volatility in the coming weeks. A bullish breakout above 4.60% would hint at a possible retest of 5.00% (and likely weigh on risk assets like stocks and higher-yielding currencies), whereas a bearish breakdown in yields would open the door for a drop toward the December lows near 3.80%. -MW
TVC:US10Y
by FOREX.com
SPX Ready for crash or relief ? Short Term BullishMarket Analysis: The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently exhibiting a Cup & Handle pattern, a classic technical analysis pattern often associated with potential bullish reversals. However, there are indications of a slowdown in the pattern formation, suggesting that the completion of the pattern may take some time. Key Observations: Bull Trap Warning: There is a cautionary note regarding the possibility of a Bull Trap at resistance. Traders should be vigilant and consider the potential for a false breakout that could lead to a reversal. Double Top Scenario: It's advised not to discard the probability of the Cup & Handle pattern transforming into a Double Top. This implies the potential for a bearish reversal if the pattern fails to complete as expected. Anticipation of Further Bullish Momentum: Despite the noted cautions, there is an anticipation of further bullish momentum leading up to the resistance line. This suggests that, even with the potential challenges in pattern completion, there may be opportunities for bullish trades. Forecast: Given the current analysis, it's prudent for traders to closely monitor price movements within the Cup & Handle pattern. The resistance level should be watched carefully for signs of a Bull Trap or a potential transformation into a Double Top. Traders may consider taking a cautious approach, using stop-loss orders, and staying informed about market developments. For more in-depth analysis and real-time updates, it's recommended to refer to reliable financial news sources and consult with financial professionals. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions, and be aware of the risks involved in financial markets. Please note that the provided forecast is based on the given context and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it's crucial to stay informed and adapt to the evolving market dynamics.
SP:SPX
by wikitrades
$EURUSD Correction ImminentFX:EURUSD has been navigating sideways since January amid economic challenges, rising interest rates, and Western economic uncertainties. Approaching yearly resistance at 1.10806, a rebound towards 1.05335 support is expected. By the end of the first financial quarter, a breakthrough of yearly resistance is anticipated, solidifying new support. This aligns with expectations of improved global financial conditions and a revival of consumer confidence. #ForexAnalysis #EURUSD #FinancialMarkets #EconomicOutlook #TradingStrategy #MarketTrends #GlobalFinance #CurrencyPairs #YearlyResistance #SupportLevels #ConsumerConfidence #FinanceNews
Short
by wikitrades
2
Inflation SupercycleOn the afternoon of October 3rd, 2023 something unprecedented happened in the U.S. Treasury market. For the first time ever, bear steepening caused the 20-year U.S. Treasury yield and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield to uninvert. Bear steepening refers to a scenario in which long-duration bond yields rise faster than short-duration bond yields, as bond yields rise across the term structure. In all past instances, inverted yield curves have normalized due to bull steepening . The probability that bear steepening would cause an inverted yield curve to normalize is so low that, until now, most term structure models excluded the possibility of it ever happening. In this post, I'll explain why this anomalous event is a major stagflation warning. The chart above shows that the 10-year Treasury yield has been rising much faster than the 3-month Treasury yield throughout 2023, narrowing the once-deep yield curve inversion. Since a yield curve inversion indicates that a recession is coming, and bear steepening indicates that the market is pricing in higher inflation for the short term, and even more so, for the long term, then bear steepening during a yield curve inversion indicates that high inflation may persist even during the recessionary phase. High inflation during the recessionary period is what defines stagflation . Since very strong bear steepening is normalizing a deeply inverted yield curve, the combination of these events is a warning that severe stagflation is likely coming. High inflation has caused Treasury yields to surge at an astronomical rate of change. Bond prices, which move in the opposite direction as yields, have sharply declined causing destabilizing losses. The effects of these massive bond losses are not even close to being fully realized by the broad economy. The image above shows a bond ETF heatmap with year-to-date returns. Large losses have been mounting across numerous bond ETFs. Long-duration Treasury ETF NASDAQ:TLT has declined by more than 18% this year. Click here to interact with the bond ETF heatmap Despite the extreme pace of monetary tightening, many central banks are still struggling to contain inflation. Inflationary fiscal spending and ballooning debt-to-GDP levels are confounding central bank monetary policy efforts. In Argentina, for example, inflation continues to spiral higher despite the central bank raising interest rates to 133%. The chart above shows that the central bank of Argentina has hiked interest rates to 133%. Despite this extreme interest rate, the country's inflation rate continues to spiral higher. In an inflationary spiral, there is no upper limit to how high interest rates can go. As the Federal Reserve tightens the supply of the U.S. dollar -- the predominant global reserve currency -- all other countries (with less demanded fiat currency) generally must tighten their monetary supply by a greater degree in order to contain inflation. If a country fails to maintain tighter monetary conditions than the Federal Reserve, then the supply of that country's (lesser demanded) fiat currency will grow against the supply of the (greater demanded, and scarcer) U.S. dollar, causing devaluation of the former against the latter. In effect, by controlling the global reserve currency, the Federal Reserve is able to export inflation to other countries. This phenomenon is explained by the Dollar Milkshake Theory . The forex chart above shows FX:USDJPY pushing up against 150 yen to the dollar. The longer the Bank of Japan continues to maintain significantly looser monetary conditions than the Fed, the longer the yen will continue to devalue against the U.S. dollar. The meteoric rise in bond yields is particularly concerning because it has broken the long-term downtrend, signaling the start of a new supercycle. After hitting the zero lower bound in 2020, yields have rebounded and pierced through long-term resistance levels. The chart above shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke above long-term resistance, ending the period of declining interest rates that characterized the monetary easing supercycle. We've entered into a new supercycle, one in which lower interest rates over time are a thing of the past. The new supercycle will be characterized by persistently high inflation. It will start off insidiously, with brief periods of disinflation, but over the long term it will accelerate higher and higher, ultimately causing today's fiat currencies to meet the same fate that every fiat currency in history has met: hyperinflation. * * * Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one should carefully review all such risks before making a trade or investment decision. Do not buy or sell any security based on anything in this post. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any financial decisions. This post is for educational purposes only.
FRED:M2SL
by SpyMasterTrades
46