We should all be aware that USA 10yr treasuries pumping up is bad news for all risk assets. And mix that with DXY pumping and we get bear markets like most of 2022. But I remain steadfast that the W4 isn't completed yet, the 382 is around 2.4% & ema 100 is around 2.24% on 3D so this is likely the B wave of the ABC down of the minor 4th and should finish in...
Monthly chart looks like we are topping on the US10Y. Weekly chart tells a different story. I believe the Weekly US10Y is telling us that fed is going to have to be more hawkish with interest rates on 21st September. We will see if i am right.
Hello everybody! I wanted to make a quick update on where I think the 10y and 30y bonds will be headed in the next few months, as in the past, I've been talking quite a bit about deflation and a recession being close. We have seen TLT rise significantly, yet I think there is more upside. In the short term, I can see a further pullback, but in my honest opinion,...
The 10-Year Treasury yield has been consolidating since April as traders grappled with inflation and recession woes. Now, a bearish Head & Shoulders chart formation is prevailing. At the time of publishing, prices finished forming the right shoulder and were trading at the neckline, which seems to be around 2.70. This is as the 100-day Simple Moving Average...
EUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 Almost three weeks of an inverted US bond yield curve has led investors all but confirm the recession, and sluggish GDP data on Thursday could be the nail in the coffin. The latest price to yield readings of the two- and ten-year Treasury notes were at 3.0081 and 2.785, respectively, which remained inverted...
The 10-year Treasury yield confirmed a breakout under a near-term rising trendline from March, opening the door to reversing the uptrend since then. Rising concerns about a recession in the United States, also amid a general slowdown in global growth expectations, are pressuring bond yields lower. Ahead, the 10-year rate is facing the May low at 2.705 where the...
My W4 on weekly HTF chart is looking likely. If the Fed & ECB are in the debt market trying to stabilize the system via repo swaps then this dump is going to be a normalization process and the markets will chop around in some f**ked up range until W4 is complete around 1.9%-2.2% during this normalization period bullish momo will fizzle out and bears will short all...
We must see how the markets react to this dump to the 10 yr, my gut thinks this could be a fear trade which causes money to leave risk and head into USA gov bonds. I would assume that at some point around 2.4% (618% golden ratio) a bottom will be found and the inflation narrative will be silenced for at least some time while Oil has a decent pull back to $60. Then...
The 2yr yield is inverted to emphasize value rather than yield. The untethering of the DXY from the treasuries are something to watch. There's a lot to see here. Im viewing it from the lenses of liquidity and solvency. This is developing. The purpose of this post is to serve as a repository of notes along the way regarding this topic. DXY shows relative...
NASDAQ:TLT not looking to HOT here. The federal reserve has the following 3 options: 1) Stick to 0.50 basis points and continue the slow bleed. ~ This will piss off investors with cash on the sidelines and will most like hit the market harder. 2) Get aggressive and raise 0.75-1 basis point ~ Market may react positively. This would show the federal reserve is...
The correlation between the 2Y & gold indicates that when the US2Y peaks, there is a US recession & gold rallies to new highs subsequently after. ** 1 = Peak in US2Y ( 1989 ) did not see a rally in gold because gold was depegged from the USD in the mid 1970's. 2 = Peak in US2Y ( 2000 ) saw a massive rally in gold as investors look for a safe haven from the...
The US Dollar has been gaining ground once more against the Japanese Yen amid a rise in Treasury yields . This has been due to a combination of confidence from the Federal Reserve about the economy, and a solid US non-farm payrolls report this week. Next week, all eyes are on US CPI . Still-strong inflation, combined with rising crude oil prices, may...
There is RSI Bullish Divergence at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat that's Visible on the Weekly Timeframe. This may also signal the beginning of a moderate pullback within the DXY as initially, I expect the DXY to show a Negative Correlation with Rising US BOND prices.
Ladies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation...
Whenever this chart crosses 0 it means the yield curve for the 2 and 10 year bond yields has inverted. Historically a significant economic downturn followed. It's not perfect but nonetheless I wanted to put this out there for feedback. Thanks
IEF (7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF ) is hitting a monthly uptrend line which is very likely to cause a short term bounce. On almost all time frames, IEF looks oversold. We are long EIF. - HH
Long-term regression trend on 10yr treasuries just broke above +2 StDev at 2.2%. Assumption: Fed raises rates to eventually bring them back down in a year or two.
Historically, in the absence of QE (Quantitative Easing), the US10Y (US 10 Year Treasury Bon) exceeds inflation. This means that bond yields must rise to exceed inflation for non-Federal Reserve buyers to enter the market place. Non-Government buyers will not buy a bond below inflation as their real returns would be negative. A SIGNIFICANT...