A deliberate soft closing down at the 1.50 lows (instead of breaking through allows for an underestimation in the bounce); here, the systematic approach of buying the dip deserves victory. We can cast some light together on playing through the flank: In the extraordinarily traditional sense an inversion which we are looking at always leads to a recession and...
For those tracking the latest round of Fixed Income chart updates we have the final leg to the stool ahead right on time for NY. You will notice that on the back-end of the curve there is loud messages of a meaningful top being placed. The technical breakdown is indicating that we have another round of flattening towards key support at 32bps. For the Chartpack...
A timely update to the US10Y Yield chart as we breakout with November highs in scope. We will not be covering US fundamentals here today and instead will focus on key technicals in play. For the flows in our map for today and the rest of 2019 we have the key levels in play (highly recommend adding all to charts): Steel Support => 1.65 Strong Support =>...
This week further stocks rising before Big Short II, so be carefull.. and imfho (disclaimer) ;) Intermarket correlations of US Treasury bond yields, US Oil, Gold, Bitcoin and DXY USD index. Pinpoints the start of UJ Seasonality which is likely this week. One of its signals is a stock rally and another one the negative correlation between DXY USD index and US...
The squeeze in Treasuries is coming soon. Right now, it's just getting started and testing the break. The narrative of deflation has picked up steam strongly in the past 2 months with oil now clobbered, Powell going dovish (today), stocks down, and many many other reasons.
To be added to my earlier publication wherein I explain to expect a stock rally followed by a larger stock market crash is a stock buying cycle locked up inside an ascending triangle. This particular set of conditions has lead to sudden stock rally and drop of DXY halfway the month of June. We could expect to see a similar cause and effect from current date...
Overall, yields around the world will continue to plummet as the world slips into a bonafide global economic crisis sometime later in 2020. While 2008 was known as the banking/financial crisis, this time around, it will be a full-blown world-wide currency crisis compounded by a plethora of social and geopolitical issues which may exacerbate into a depression by...
Weekly chart says it all. Agrees with UJ Seasonality and USD devaluation.
In January I posted a lighter version of this chart, with less symbols on one chart. A have to admit it turned out a bit like a can of worms but just because of the many markets comparing it gets more interesting in my opinion. Between January and now and adjusted my Gold expectations and it does perform even better than I expected it would do at first. This...
Hi, today we are going to talk about US 30-year Treasury bond and its current landscape. We observe a new historic 30-year Treasury bond with high selling volume, which probably, are going to unleash a devastating selling pressure over the asset, that could outflow to Gold (XAUUSD) and Silver (XAGUSD), there is label as heaven assets. That even after the recent...
As you can see price broke our trend line, respected our resistance line then dropped, price is currently now at another little resistance level after making a bullish correction where we either see a break or bounce. Our thinking is we are going to get a bounce very soon either at the resistance level we are at now or the resistance level just above, either way...
Target 4-5 This is Montly chart, Take note!
Key levels to look out for when analysing US30 .
Just another anecdote of how this trades much better using a log scale than a non-log scale. This will likely break out to the downside within the next few months. See my longer term chart for reference.
There have been a lot of talks of a bond bear market over the past year. That would be a big problem, but it's not here yet. The biggest problem is that too many chartists are using and circulating charts of trend resistance breaking in bonds that do not use log scales. I get that it seems intuitively dumb for a yield chart to use a log scale, but that's how this...
U.S. equities bounce from initially being down 15 handles, but volatility is expected. However, is recent move expected? Yes, in my opinion, as markets are ultimately forced to re-price growth and inflation . Step back from the earnings headlines because that's literally old news. Although Q3-18 earnings growth is up nearly 20 percent, over 60 percent of...
This is part of a series of charts which I will posting for the reader to make up his/her mind based on the weight of the evidence. Do note, these are weekly charts which means the implications of which will occur over the next 12, 18, 24, 36 months.
The 30 year treasury yield has traded under 3.25% for almost 4 years now. The Fed continues to hike rates on a quarterly basis and Trump is unhappy about rising rates. Every day we hear how the economy is 'in great shape', and jobs data is 'as good as it gets'. More significantly what is pushing up rates are increased treasury issuance and the Fed's...