Last week we mentioned that #yields cratering like they did was not normal. Currently they are all at support with $TNX holding better than short term yields. The 10Yr has BOUNCED a bit off support. In a positive note it does lessens the inverted Yield curve :D We'll see how this scenario holds. What's happening today is more SPECULATION than anything else. The...
The Debt Market is significantly larger than the #stockmarket so it's VERY IMPORTANT what happens there. It's way too early to see data but, JUST A HUNCH, this is most likely the #FED stepping in & buying bonds trying to calm the markets. This is not normal to see #yields cratering so much. The 1Yr is off almost 3.26% The 2Yr is off 5.01 The 10Yr is off...
The chart I've created here shows yield on the US 10 Year Treasury Bond. The white line shows its percentage change over the last 12 months. The red line shows the S&P 500. It shows the S&P 500 over the last 12 months. What more needs to be said? The S&P 500 is red over the last year while the yield on bonds continues to rise. REMEMBER: with every increase in...
looking back at historical inflationary support levels...inflation remains sticky and you can see why.
An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond falls below that of a 2-year Treasury bond. Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than shorter-term bonds. This is because investors demand a higher return for tying up their money for a longer period of time. However, when short-term interest rates rise above long-term interest...
2 year, 5 year, 10 year and 30 year yield are all showing a similar characteristic: · Low established in 2020 · Major support trend started forming since then · Seem to have completed its retracement with a double-bottom · Resuming on its major support trend · Target to break above its recent all-time high set on Oct...
The USDJPY reversed strongly from the 137 round number resistance level, trading lower through the session on Friday, ending the week at the 135.80 price area. This move lower, as we know was due to the weakness in the DXY, hence, if the weakness continues, the USDJPY could continue trading lower, down to retest the 135.35 key support level. The USDJPY could...
5% of on a 1-year US Government Bond Yield? I never thought that I would see the day. Many of us have grown up in a low rate world. Today, you buy a US Treasury bond, hold it for a year, and get 5%. That's more than most stocks yield in dividends, probably nearly double or triple the average. However, it's said that the S&P 500 averages 7% a year or so....
Overnight, the USDJPY climbed steadily to the upside, reaching the recent high and round number resistance level of 137. However, the price failed to break the resistance level, retracing lower down to the current level of 136.61. While further upside could be expected especially if the DXY continues to strengthen, watch out for significant volatility on the...
What is moving this week? Our weekly eyeball into the different markets. Interest rates likely to be breaking its all time high again, get ready for another volatile month ahead. Difference between yield and interest rate: Borrowers take reference from interest rates and lenders take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Minimum...
This week will decide what happens for the intermediate 1yr kind of stagnant BUT 2yr #yield is RIPPING! $TNX 10 yr is RUNNING > NOT GOOD $VIX lower high but not lower low Again, this week will determine the month of March BULLS beginning to lose steam #stocks $DJI $NDX $SPX
I think it bottomed in 2022, and that Eurodollar futures are approaching end of cylce. Bounce will be supportive for the EURUSD. Bunds forming a wedge, turn down on US and BUND yields will make EURUSD bullish (rate differential) like in past cycles Grega
🚨#Yields are still forming lower highs🚨 $TNX bucks trend but it lags (inverted curve) $VIX LOWER LOW This can be very good short term for #stocks & #crypto
Feb 25 Documented bought trailer position of #TRUEFI @ 516 BUT largest buy of $TRU was @ 405 Sold around 1200 Buying half of sell here, like the 4hr (sell portion @ 73, if pulls back, keep trading portion) Daily see Bull Flag? TEXTBOOK #defi #yield #crypto #altcoin ---- TODAY $TRU pulls back to the red Moving Avg will rebuy small portion sold @ 73 Buy...
Inflation is plateauing and likely to end flat in 2023, so what will that impact the markets? Though inflation peaked at 9% last year and has been declining to 6.4%, CPI seems to be plateauing and may close flat in 2023, but this is not good news at all. Why? Because the Fed wanted to see the CPI or inflation coming down to 2% in a sustained manner. Studying...
Monday 2/27/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds...
This chart shows the effective federal funds rate in comparison to the 30 year and 3 month yield over the past five years. There are 5 interesting times to look at: 1. Late 2018 long term yields began to peak right before the fed stopped their hiking cycle. Yield curve began to flatten. 2. They then stayed put for about 6 months with the 3MY hovering right...
Investments tend to fall in value FASTER than increase (even in bull markets) IMO always take profits STRATEGICALLY This works for ALL investments that have tried it on including, but not limited to Crypto, , Commodities, Bond Yields, and Currencies AVG 1-2 = 3 weeks 2-3 = WEEK! 3-4 = Almost month 4-5 = WEEK! 5-6 = 3 weeks 6-7 = WEEK! Example $DIA Use...