Prep and Lean ES/SPX ES Monday Trade Plan Inflection: 5245-5249 Upper lvls: 5258-5265 / 5272-5280 / 5302-5308 Lower lvls: 5230-5232 / 5212 / 5200 NQ Monday Trade Plan Inflection: 18268 Upper lvls: 18339 / 18497-18503 / 18571-18586 Lower lvls: 18203 / 18149 / 18063 Stay Frosty!10:01by Beyond_Charts0
SP500**SP500:** This week's forecast is for the price to test the historical highs, more precisely at 5316.50, and to reverse the trend after that test.Longby simaoxceps1
ES - Scoping 80 Tick Shorts In A Raging Bull-RunWith bullish price action this week, some sort of retracement is considered healthy and with 5229.75 in the cards for a draw of liquidity, next week will be interesting. Shortby LegendSince0
Weekly Plan ES Futures 5-12-2024Weekly plan: ESH2024 NYSE:ES FUTURES 5/12/2024 5280 >> 5307 >>> 5334 Weekly pivot: 5250, Now 5238 5224>> 5173 >>> 514610:34by dhjesus1
ES 4 Hour Trend AnalysisES moved up slowly last week on unusually low volume. It had been forming an ascending wedge, which would normally be bearish, but this time it broke out above. I'm skeptical of this move due to the volume, but as long as it can maintain above this wedge and/or 5200, I think a rally back into supply at 5300 is likely. We'll have to wait and see if that ends up being a double top or another leg up to make new all time highs.Longby AdvancedPlays1
#202420 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500overall market comment Markets clearly proved me wrong this week and right now the only question is how high this squeeze goes before we reverse. Dax already made a new ATH and it does not look like it’s going to stop anytime soon. For the sp500 & nasdaq markets tried multiple times on Friday to melt up on big volume but some bigger institutions stuffed the attempts. The patterns and volume profile looked like we could easily melt through the weekly highs and be on our way to retest the ath’s but huge selling came through and both markets are still printing lower highs. But given that we are in a clear uptrend and printed 7 consecutive daily bull bars for the sp500, bears have no solid arguments here. The high probability trades are on the long side until bears make lower lows again. Given that we will get many inflation data points Tuesday/Wednesday I think the big move will happen then. Feel free to join the gamblers and bet on hot or cold cpi numbers. I will wait for markets to show the way and join once the direction is obvious. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: Many indicators either again slightly ticking up or stalling instead of falling. Most expectation reports remain way above 2%. Next week we get new PPI and CPI data, perfect timing for markets to be in bubble territory for a pop. rate-cuts: Next week will be key for central bank policy. If PPI and CPI will surprise up again, those rate cuts remain a pipe dream and market is currently max risk on again, which could meet a big risk off event Tuesday/Wednesday. If the numbers surprise downward, expect new all time highs and probably more blow off tops. job market: The job market was nothing short of amazing since the covid lows and as of now there are enough key metrics pointing to a weakening. The job market usually starts to decline very slowly and gradually and then it accelerates and steepens. If the next readings turn positive again, I’m obviously wrong. sp500 e-mini futures current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 key levels: 5000 - 5150 comment: The sell-off on sp500 was too strong to be a pull-back in a bull rally. My base assumption is still that the bull trend is long gone and this is a trading range. We can make new ath and my assumption could still be valid from a technical perspective but the poke above ath would have to be a spike and reverse fast, otherwise we will probably continue much higher. bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. bear case: Bears see this as a trading range and we are at the March resistance level around 5250. They want to trap late bulls above 5200 and sell off to the daily 20ema at 5165 before testing the lower bull trend line around 5150 where I expect buyers to step in and bears to take some profits. There market decides if it want’s to retest lows or highs. short term: I have no opinion on the markets until Tuesdays US CPI release. We could stall, rally or pull-back. I wait for good opportunities to scalp and do absolutely nothing until after CPI numbers and markets have shown exactly where they want to go. I think the play is rather simple. CPI in line or cold, we print new ath’s and it if comes hot, we get a big bear spike down, followed by a nice bear channel down to 5000 and probably lower. Anything deviating from that, would be a surprise imo. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. current swing trade: none but depending on how high we get before CPI numbers, I will probably initiate a small short position. Chart update: Erased previous bear channel and count in favor of the upward trend and an bearish alternative if CPI comes in hot. by priceactiontds0
Can sellers follow throughCan the sellers that appeared in Friday session in the S&P 500 follow through to the downside on Monday or was the selling buyer selling to take profits before the weekend. Monday's price action will give us answers to these questions.01:42by DanGramza4
Reviewing Price action morning session ES 5-10-24Going over the morning session ES looking for clues and how we could have traded better today.02:35by BobbyS8130
S&P500 the last wave is comingThe S&P500 index is preparing for its last wave up to fresh new highs. Crypto will also outperform all assets. After the blow-off top phase the "real" recession will begin.Longby PizzaDriverUpdated 555
uptrendIt seems that the recent upward movement is a powerful movement and has high goals, if the support is maintained, the continuation of the upward trend is likely Longby forkman0
Candle stick patternCandle stick patterns. Mostly reversal with the exception of a Marabozu Educationby ElGore180
Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 10th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with a cautious undertone after a significant multi-day rally. Expect potential profit-taking and a reduction in aggressive buying activity. A period of consolidation is highly likely. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235-37, 5228, 5209 (major), 5203 (major) Major Supports: 5177-79 (major), 5155 (major), 5120 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5268-72 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5326-28 (major), 5395 (major) Trading Strategy Capital Preservation Focus: After a strong multi-day rally, prioritize protecting your gains. Adopt a defensive posture and consider reducing position sizes. Limited Long Opportunities: Due to the overbought conditions and the potential for a pullback, look for very selective long entries if at all. Focus on failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying dips at major support levels, with 5209 or failed breakdowns at 5203 offering potential opportunities. Short Opportunities: While your personal trading rules discourage shorting green candles and breaking trends, monitor back-tests of 5246 and 5268-72 for potential short entries with tight stop losses. Proceed with extreme caution. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, avoid emotional trading, and prioritize minimizing risk exposure. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5203-5209 zone remains crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Holding above this level would indicate a continuation of the breakout, targeting 5246, then 5268-72. Ultra Bullish Scenario (Unlikely): A parabolic move overnight pushing through 5246 would be required for a continuation without a proper dip. Monitor overnight basing above 5228 and below 5246 for clues about strength. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5203 would signal a potential pullback and retest of lower supports. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5228 or 5203 for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 10th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: U.S. Market Performance: Modest gains seen in U.S. stock indices, reflecting optimism despite mixed April performance. European and Asian Market Dynamics: Positive movements noted in European and Asian markets, driven by solid economic data and central bank easing. Impact of Economic Indicators: U.S. labor market easing influences market expectations regarding potential rate cuts. Sector-Specific Movements: Technology sector experiences volatility, while energy sector sees potential stabilization. Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook: Cautious optimism prevails amid anticipation of rate cuts and easing inflation, alongside geopolitical risks and trade negotiations. Assessment of Inflation and Interest Rate Policies: Global Inflation Trends: Persistent inflationary pressures challenge central banks' efforts to meet targets. Central Banks' Stance: Cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments observed globally. Economic Implications: High interest rates may slow down consumer spending and business investments. Inflation Expectations and Future Policies: Central banks closely monitor inflation expectations to inform future policy decisions. Impact on Global Economic Stability: Corporate Financial Developments and Deals: Companies announce financial results and engage in strategic transactions, reflecting market dynamics and regulatory changes. Forward-Looking Corporate Statements: Companies adjust strategies to navigate current market conditions and regulatory environments effectively.by spytradingpro0
S&P500 Buying Lows - Desired EntriesLast week ES reversed the downtrend and immediately looks bullish. I'm confident buying lows with defined stops. Watch for these 2 potential ideas in the week ahead. ThanksLongby GrayTrader01Updated 0
S&P500 - Bullish opportunites ahead! - Long in flight Last weeks levels provided to be partly actionable and price has immediately responded (See attached post). Comfortable holding this 50% long position with stop/target untouched. Will be looking for opportunities to buy the other 50% and increase risk as I'm confident in the bullish sentiment after last weeks Feds statement. I hold an underlying belief that the FED does actually have a decent pulse on the economy that drives the stock market - obviously not the "real" economy but an important one no less. I'm personally very bullish 2024 on nearly all assets. So lets unpack the chart - Daily chat shows a "comfortable" pullback. One very similar to Nov. 2024. Evidence on the RSI suggests we are positioned for months of bullish room to run ahead. So I'm interested in getting long at least back to comfortable new highs. 2 hour chart shows our first aggressive entry hit and the second entry came within .30% of getting filled. Although I would have loved the second to get filled, It's a non-factor. Thankfully price has strongly verified our bullish identification of these price levels and the overall theory. Although the stop of the aggressive was close to the conservative entry - it was separated by several key levels and strategically placed. I've got a good idea of where things are going and the opportunities on the way are endless. The rest is risk management Follow/like for more AMEX:SPY NYSE:ES GETTEX:MES #S&P500 Commentary Best, GrayTrader Longby GrayTrader01Updated 2
Over Night Price ACtion REview ES 5-10-24Going over the price action Overnight ES looking for clues as to how to trade the morning session. We are lowering risk Day 6 uptrend03:43by BobbyS8130
Strong Friday closes expectedThe structure on Thursday in the S&P 500 daily chart implies the possibility of a strong close on Friday as we go into the weekend. Ideally would be a close above 5260 to 526501:43by DanGramza4
ES DAy Price Action Review 5-9-24Going over todays price action. looking for clues to what the market was telling us and reflecting on our trades and what we could have done better.06:44by BobbyS8130
May 9 Possible Overnight ES Trade!ES has just opened and I believe we could continue up to truly close the 2HR FVG at 5257. So far we are making continuous bullish candlestick patterns. If we can maintain support at 5234, we can test the upside before retracing back down to 5220. by RandiMichelle110
Retest of 4960 area/ Fed Day !I think we will go back down and test the 4960 area. We have broken the short term Up angle today in one swoop. RED UMVD has appeared after divergence as well. FED Day today - get ready for some serious moves.Shortby SnowflakeTraderUpdated 1
ES 4hr Long IdeaES has broken above a bearish ascending wedge pattern on the 4hr. It failed to sustain above yesterday, but has recovered today so far. If it manages to keep going, I'll be looking to long on any pullbacks that tap the top end of the wedge.Longby AdvancedPlays0
ES1! bull vs bear updateBullish count on left, bearish count on right. Lots of gymnastics on the left, but it is still just a series of impulse waves up, with key higher low pivots held. There are different ways to interpret these impulse waves collectively, and the one I have chosen would get one complete impulse wave off low of 4963.50 to happen the quickest. Key price support at 5128.75. On the right, bears are still looking for wave C of Z to finish. It would be quite an extended finish of the corrective structure. Of the two possibilities, I favor the bullish one, for the following reasons: -UVIX broke to lower lows during the bounce off 4963.50, which seems to reliable in terms of predicting additional upside -key Fibonacci resistance levels have been broken -length of time of the correction, which is now longer than the move down from 5333.50by discobiscuit1
ES - Potential paths for today.I'd expect ES to be relatively flat after we didn't get much of a reaction to jobless claims. It's been chopping for several days and I have no reason to believe it will break today, but if it does breakout here are some paths. by AdvancedPlays0
Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024Trading Plan for Thursday, May 9th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but with increasing uncertainty as the market enters a consolidation phase. Expect choppy trading within a defined range. Prioritize patience and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5203, 5194 (major) Major Supports: 5177 (major), 5155 (major), 5131-36 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5213 (major), 5219 (major), 5229-33 (major) Major Resistances: 5246 (major), 5263-66 (major) Trading Strategy Consolidation Mode: Recognize that the market has shifted from a strong trending environment to a choppy consolidation phase. Adapt your trading strategy accordingly, focusing on small gains and disciplined risk management. Long Opportunities: Focus on failed breakdowns at 5203 or 5194 for long entries. In the event of a deeper pullback, consider buying the retests of the 5177, 5155, and 5131-36 breakout zone or knife-catches for quick scalps. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the inherent risk of shorting against strength in a bull market, avoid aggressive short positions. Monitor back-tests of 5229-33 or 5263-66 for potential short entries, targeting level-to-level profits. Focus on Levels and Patience: Trade the provided support and resistance levels with strict discipline. Let price action develop, be patient, and avoid emotional trading. Overtrading within a tight range can lead to losses. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5194 level and ideally the 5131-36 breakout zone remains crucial for maintaining bullish momentum. Holding above the lower range boundary would indicate a healthy consolidation and base for potential continuation higher. Base Building and Rebound: A period of consolidation within the 5194-5219 range followed by a rebound off the lower zone would set the stage for further advances, targeting 5229-33, 5246, then 5263-66. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5194, more significantly below 5177 would signal a deeper pullback and a potential retest of the 5131-36 breakout zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 9th, 2024 Global Stock Market Trends: Varied Performance: Mixed responses observed in Asian markets; Wall Street experiences second consecutive day of lull. Influence of Geopolitical Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions impact investor confidence and market stability. Recovery Post-COVID-19: Economic recovery contributes to increased positive correlation among global stock markets. Technological Advancements and Stock Market Analysis: Complex Network Analysis: Studies highlight increased interconnectedness among global stock markets. Geopolitical Impact: Geopolitical unrest continues to pose risks, affecting capital flows and commodity markets. Future Outlook: Predicted trends focus on sustained recovery and nuanced understanding of market interdependencies. Overview of International Trade and Currency Fluctuations: Currency Fluctuation Dynamics: Currency values influence international trade competitiveness and economic policies. Role of Economic Indicators: Inflation rates, interest rates, and GDP growth significantly affect currency valuation. Risk Management Strategies: Businesses employ hedging strategies to mitigate currency fluctuation risks. Government Policies: Monetary and fiscal policies play crucial roles in stabilizing currency values. Impact of Central Banks' Policies on Global Economy: Economic Stabilization: Central banks manipulate monetary policies to address economic fluctuations and crises. Influence on Inflation and Interest Rates: Adjustments in interest rates affect global economic conditions. Effects on Financial Markets: Central bank policies directly impact asset prices and investment flows. Response to Economic Shocks: Central banks provide monetary lifelines during economic crises to stabilize financial systems.Longby spytradingpro0