ES Day Trade Long Idea ES is continuing the run from yesterday and VX remains dead. I like longs for today. If it breaks premarket highs, I'll look for an entry on a retest.Longby AdvancedPlays0
The S&P and NQ Breaking Out? What to KnowE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5333.00, up 63.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,691.75, up 276.75 We have fresh record highs in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures. So, where to next? Let’s not put the cart in front of the horse; we MUST first break out decisively and close out above the previous record highs from April 1st and March 21st, respectively, on a weekly basis. If this move struggles to follow through, we will look to a number of support levels leading into major three-star support defined by yesterday’s data spike and opening hour trade at 5303.25-5308.25 in the E-mini S&P and 18,532-18,547 in the E-mini NQ. Powering yesterday’s move was momentum; E-mini S&P futures secured the ninth positive session out of ten, with the only miss being a 1.00-point loss on May 13th. Next, earnings broadly have been solid, with leadership outperforming expectations. Lastly, the heartbeat of this record run comes from slowing economic data, and specifically, after three hotter-than-expected CPI reports, yesterday’s slower read encouraged a risk-on move and an unwind of negative positions (short covering). It is not only CPI thought, the job market is loosening up, the Services sector is beginning to show holes, yesterday’s NY Empire State Manufacturing contracted larger than expected, and Retail Sales slowed. This has all contained a rally in 10-year yields, sending it to the lowest level since early April and helping to stoke the risk-appetite. Today, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 66.7% probability the Fed will cut twice this year. This morning, we look to Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, and Housing Starts, all due at 7:30 a.m. CT. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 a.m. CT, and traders must also keep an eye out for Fed speak. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 5343.25**, 5400-5420.25***, 5459.75-5474.25*** Pivot: 5333-5333.50 Support: 5321-5325.25**, 5315.25-5316.75**, 5303.25-5308.50***, 5286.75-5292.75***, 5269.50-5274.25**** NQ (June) Resistance: 18,687-18,709****, 18,825***, 19,085***, 19,319*** Pivot: 18,645 Support: 18,602-18,613**, 18,532-18,547***, 18,446-18,485***, 18,415**, 18,336-18,371**** Micro Bitcoin (May) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 66,495, up 4,660 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646*** Pivot: 65.700 Support: 64,540-64,975**, 63,440-63,900**, 62,995*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.by Blue_Line_Futures0
ATHS?Been calling aths since NFP. Price respected 1D FVG on both indices. Labels for potential TPS Wick might hold up price Longby StavrosKUpdated 0
ES, SPX - Santa Rally could trigger Cup & Handle patternA strong end to Q4 Window dressing by fund managers who were underweight equities would trigger a cup handle pattern breaking the trendline of the pattern is around 4600 on the #ES I could also make an argument for HVF pattern we have a high 3 in place A recession will no doubt rear it's head at some point ... but a blow off top first to hand bears a beating is definitely a scenario I have shared before. by BallaJiUpdated 6
ES1! evening updateAs price has poked above 5333.50, the bear scenario has officially been invalidated. I have four different impulse waves from the low of 4963.50 (green ellipses). I see no way to create a diagonal from the price action in the orange ellipse. How these impulse waves will fit together is yet to be determined, but it is likely that ES1! will grind upward for the next several weeks. I will be curious to see how price reacts once ES1! gets to 5382-5400 range; a significant correction in this range will likely be helpful in determining the overall count.by discobiscuit1
2024-05-15 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment US CPI came in line and it was obvious that we would melt then, since yesterday PPI was hot and we melted anyway. Now we get a deep-pullback the last weeks after new ath’s and now we got the retest or new ath’s. From a technical point markets are now absolutely free to do whatever they want. Right now the momentum is clearly bullish but since everyone and their dog is long and Friday is OPEX, I would not be too sure of more parabolic upward moves. If we continue up, I happily join the bulls as I did today. sp500 e-mini futures comment: 10 consecutive bull bars on the daily chart. Talking about parabolic buy climaxes… It would be funny, if we just straight off sell down from here on. Overbought does not even come close to describing this but this can go on much longer than I could ever think is possible, so best to do is trend following. current market cycle: trading range - same as dax. If we break strongly above 5340, continuation of the bull trend for probably much higher prices (5500/5600). key levels: 5000 - 5337 bull case: Bulls want this breakout out of the wedge to succeed and continue the melt-up for 5400/5500. If bears fail to quickly trade back below the 1h 20ema, bulls have no reason to sell out of their longs. Besides that, not much technical stuff to talk about. Since yesterday’s PPI spike, we had consecutive buy climaxes and pull-backs are shallow. Invalid below 5290. bear case: Market is the definition of overbought, yet here we are. Bears need to start doing anything to get some bulls to take profits. As for now, this is just bullish and bullish only but do you really want to buy the ath for new longs? Momentum scalps, sure but besides that, I would rather wait. Bears need to break below 5300 and retest today’s open. Then we wait for the bulls to react and based on that we can talk about new lower prices. Invalid above 5345 short term: Neutral - trend is clearly up but I rather wait for now and see what the market does up here when OPEX is around the corner. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. trade of the day: The CPI spike got a pull-back to exactly the 50% retracement. Textbook buy at the 5m 20ema.by priceactiontds0
ES UpdateAnd now we're overbought on RSI and MFI. Dumped everything before I wrote this post. Made $4k on this stupid pump by going long yesterday, might take some of that and play for the dip tomorrow, but did well for a quick one day trade so might call it a week and go back to working on projects at home.by hungry_hippoUpdated 2211
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major) Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major) Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major) Trading Strategy Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). 📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve). 🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today). 📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF). 🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).Longby spytradingpro0
ES Trade Plan After CPIToday's trade plan will be very simple. I'm looking for a break and retest of 5300 for longs and shorts if it fails to sustain and break above 5300.by AdvancedPlays1
ES IRL > ERL Long ideaLong idea for ES, wait to see what price does at that internal range liquidityLongby RapidSandUpdated 1
possibility of a fallIt seems that due to the news, the upward trend has lost its strength, if the resistance is maintained, there is a possibility of a fallShortby forkman0
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major) Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302. Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps. News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024 China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects. Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management. Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain. Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders. Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies. China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics. Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.by spytradingpro0
S&P500: Breather 😮💨The momentum in the S&P500 chart slowed down yesterday. With a view to the upper price target, however, there should still be room for further expansion in the current phase of the turquoise wave 5. Once the high has been placed, a larger corrective movement is on the cards. Please note our alternative scenario (38% probable). This option suggests the possibility of an already intact wave-2 sell-off. This scenario will be activated if the price falls below the support level of 4964 points. Longby MarketIntel0
ES1Tracking a 5 wave move. Falls in lines with SP:SPX and AMEX:SPY movements. Upwards trend needs to be respected Updates to follow. www.tradingview.comLongby Mouse42220
ES/SPY - Trade Setup Ideas for Short Term ES just broke below an ascending channel and made a double top at supply. However, it's still holding above 5240 so I think it could end up bullish, we have a descending trendline now that could lead to a breakout as well. I'd look to long if above 5240 with a target of the previous double top/supply. If it breaks below 5240, I like shorts targeting demand near 5200. VX will be important to watch as well. by AdvancedPlays0
Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major) Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major) Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major) Trading Strategy Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness. Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals. Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024 1. Corporate Earnings Surge Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations. Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices. 2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates. Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy. 3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges. Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures. 4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices. Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment. 5. Key Economic Indicators Release Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week. Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.by spytradingpro1
ES updateMFI went oversold and all we got was a gap fill, not even a dip. I guess they want to pump inflation numbers Wed morning, might day trade on the long side tomorrow.by hungry_hippo7
Shorting ES - May 13From the 2HR perspective, ES looks to be forming an "M" shaped pattern, signaling and bearish reversal. I believe we can continue to pullback to at least 5230 for a short term day trade, as price may continue to press down to gather liquidity from the daily fair value gap from 5232 to 5218. We are anticipating core inflation data this week that could influence the drop or cause the markets to continue to chop within a tight trading range from 5280 to 5216. by RandiMichelle0
ES Weekly Levels (May13-17)Here are the levels I'm using this week. Key things to watch are the PPI & CPI data as well as earnings from big retailers WMT and HD. Powell also speaks this week on Tuesday. Bullish momentum continues but NQ is coming into a completion zone for a bearish Harmonic at the 886 Fib. Potential bullish momo into that level then heavy resistance. SUMMARY ES posted a weekly gain of 1.55% after trading in a huge 108 pt range ES broke through 618 resistance and tapped the 786 Fib retracement R2 = May 10th High (5264) R1 = LTF 786 Fib RT (5251) S1 = LTF 618 Fib RT/9 ema (5188) S2 = 21 ema (5169) Price has completed a measured move into the 786 Fib. Bearish Harmonic pattern now in play with completion zone at 5289. Heavy week of econ data ahead with PPI on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and Powell speaking. Earning season is wrapping up. Notable strength in defensive XLU & XLP sectors Earnings from big retailers WMT & HD due out. Sell in May effect in play. RSI 59.99| VIX at 112.56 | 10 year 4.50% by WadeYendall1
SP500**SP500:** This week's forecast is for the price to test the historical highs, more precisely at 5316.50, and to reverse the trend after that test.Longby simaoxceps1
ES - Scoping 80 Tick Shorts In A Raging Bull-RunWith bullish price action this week, some sort of retracement is considered healthy and with 5229.75 in the cards for a draw of liquidity, next week will be interesting. Shortby LegendSince0
ES 4 Hour Trend AnalysisES moved up slowly last week on unusually low volume. It had been forming an ascending wedge, which would normally be bearish, but this time it broke out above. I'm skeptical of this move due to the volume, but as long as it can maintain above this wedge and/or 5200, I think a rally back into supply at 5300 is likely. We'll have to wait and see if that ends up being a double top or another leg up to make new all time highs.Longby AdvancedPlays1
#202420 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500overall market comment Markets clearly proved me wrong this week and right now the only question is how high this squeeze goes before we reverse. Dax already made a new ATH and it does not look like it’s going to stop anytime soon. For the sp500 & nasdaq markets tried multiple times on Friday to melt up on big volume but some bigger institutions stuffed the attempts. The patterns and volume profile looked like we could easily melt through the weekly highs and be on our way to retest the ath’s but huge selling came through and both markets are still printing lower highs. But given that we are in a clear uptrend and printed 7 consecutive daily bull bars for the sp500, bears have no solid arguments here. The high probability trades are on the long side until bears make lower lows again. Given that we will get many inflation data points Tuesday/Wednesday I think the big move will happen then. Feel free to join the gamblers and bet on hot or cold cpi numbers. I will wait for markets to show the way and join once the direction is obvious. current market drivers (non price action part of my publication) second wave of inflation: Many indicators either again slightly ticking up or stalling instead of falling. Most expectation reports remain way above 2%. Next week we get new PPI and CPI data, perfect timing for markets to be in bubble territory for a pop. rate-cuts: Next week will be key for central bank policy. If PPI and CPI will surprise up again, those rate cuts remain a pipe dream and market is currently max risk on again, which could meet a big risk off event Tuesday/Wednesday. If the numbers surprise downward, expect new all time highs and probably more blow off tops. job market: The job market was nothing short of amazing since the covid lows and as of now there are enough key metrics pointing to a weakening. The job market usually starts to decline very slowly and gradually and then it accelerates and steepens. If the next readings turn positive again, I’m obviously wrong. sp500 e-mini futures current market cycle: trading range until new ath or drop below 5000 key levels: 5000 - 5150 comment: The sell-off on sp500 was too strong to be a pull-back in a bull rally. My base assumption is still that the bull trend is long gone and this is a trading range. We can make new ath and my assumption could still be valid from a technical perspective but the poke above ath would have to be a spike and reverse fast, otherwise we will probably continue much higher. bull case: 7 consecutive bull bars on the daily tf is as bullish as it gets. We are still in a lower high but clearly on our way to make new ones. We are right below the 2024-03 high, which was also resistance in early 2024-04. Bulls want the market to move sideways here and poke enough at 5260 until bears give up and we see the melt-up to 5333 and probably higher. The big green bull trend line is an obvious magnet as well as the big round number 5400 or even 5500. As long as bears don’t print big bear bars on the daily chart and drop the market below 5200, bulls are in full control. Next target for bulls is 5300 and if we have enough momentum, we can print 5333 again. bear case: Bears see this as a trading range and we are at the March resistance level around 5250. They want to trap late bulls above 5200 and sell off to the daily 20ema at 5165 before testing the lower bull trend line around 5150 where I expect buyers to step in and bears to take some profits. There market decides if it want’s to retest lows or highs. short term: I have no opinion on the markets until Tuesdays US CPI release. We could stall, rally or pull-back. I wait for good opportunities to scalp and do absolutely nothing until after CPI numbers and markets have shown exactly where they want to go. I think the play is rather simple. CPI in line or cold, we print new ath’s and it if comes hot, we get a big bear spike down, followed by a nice bear channel down to 5000 and probably lower. Anything deviating from that, would be a surprise imo. medium-long term: Trading Range until 5000 is clearly broken and has turned resistance. current swing trade: none but depending on how high we get before CPI numbers, I will probably initiate a small short position. Chart update: Erased previous bear channel and count in favor of the upward trend and an bearish alternative if CPI comes in hot. by priceactiontds0