ES Day Trade Long Idea ES is continuing the run from yesterday and VX remains dead. I like longs for today. If it breaks premarket highs, I'll look for an entry on a retest.Longby AdvancedPlays0
The S&P and NQ Breaking Out? What to KnowE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5333.00, up 63.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,691.75, up 276.75 We have fresh record highs in the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures. So, where to next? Let’s not put the cart in front of the horse; we MUST first break out decisively and close out above the previous record highs from April 1st and March 21st, respectively, on a weekly basis. If this move struggles to follow through, we will look to a number of support levels leading into major three-star support defined by yesterday’s data spike and opening hour trade at 5303.25-5308.25 in the E-mini S&P and 18,532-18,547 in the E-mini NQ. Powering yesterday’s move was momentum; E-mini S&P futures secured the ninth positive session out of ten, with the only miss being a 1.00-point loss on May 13th. Next, earnings broadly have been solid, with leadership outperforming expectations. Lastly, the heartbeat of this record run comes from slowing economic data, and specifically, after three hotter-than-expected CPI reports, yesterday’s slower read encouraged a risk-on move and an unwind of negative positions (short covering). It is not only CPI thought, the job market is loosening up, the Services sector is beginning to show holes, yesterday’s NY Empire State Manufacturing contracted larger than expected, and Retail Sales slowed. This has all contained a rally in 10-year yields, sending it to the lowest level since early April and helping to stoke the risk-appetite. Today, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 66.7% probability the Fed will cut twice this year. This morning, we look to Jobless Claims, Import/Export Prices, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, and Housing Starts, all due at 7:30 a.m. CT. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 a.m. CT, and traders must also keep an eye out for Fed speak. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 5343.25**, 5400-5420.25***, 5459.75-5474.25*** Pivot: 5333-5333.50 Support: 5321-5325.25**, 5315.25-5316.75**, 5303.25-5308.50***, 5286.75-5292.75***, 5269.50-5274.25**** NQ (June) Resistance: 18,687-18,709****, 18,825***, 19,085***, 19,319*** Pivot: 18,645 Support: 18,602-18,613**, 18,532-18,547***, 18,446-18,485***, 18,415**, 18,336-18,371**** Micro Bitcoin (May) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 66,495, up 4,660 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 66,045-66,552***, 67,155-67,965***, 68,829**, 71,625-71,646*** Pivot: 65.700 Support: 64,540-64,975**, 63,440-63,900**, 62,995*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.by Blue_Line_Futures0
ATHS?Been calling aths since NFP. Price respected 1D FVG on both indices. Labels for potential TPS Wick might hold up price Longby StavrosKUpdated 0
ES Overnight and yesterday Price Action REview 4-15Going over the price action from the CPI report and Overnight sessions. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. talk less, listen more. talk less, listen more. 05:10by BobbyS8130
ES1! evening updateAs price has poked above 5333.50, the bear scenario has officially been invalidated. I have four different impulse waves from the low of 4963.50 (green ellipses). I see no way to create a diagonal from the price action in the orange ellipse. How these impulse waves will fit together is yet to be determined, but it is likely that ES1! will grind upward for the next several weeks. I will be curious to see how price reacts once ES1! gets to 5382-5400 range; a significant correction in this range will likely be helpful in determining the overall count.by discobiscuit1
Momentum is picking up.After the release of the CPI data on Wednesday buying momentum is picking up in the S&P 500. The expectation is follow through to the upside but not a large move on Thursday.Editors' picks01:31by DanGramza44173
2024-05-15 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. overall market comment US CPI came in line and it was obvious that we would melt then, since yesterday PPI was hot and we melted anyway. Now we get a deep-pullback the last weeks after new ath’s and now we got the retest or new ath’s. From a technical point markets are now absolutely free to do whatever they want. Right now the momentum is clearly bullish but since everyone and their dog is long and Friday is OPEX, I would not be too sure of more parabolic upward moves. If we continue up, I happily join the bulls as I did today. sp500 e-mini futures comment: 10 consecutive bull bars on the daily chart. Talking about parabolic buy climaxes… It would be funny, if we just straight off sell down from here on. Overbought does not even come close to describing this but this can go on much longer than I could ever think is possible, so best to do is trend following. current market cycle: trading range - same as dax. If we break strongly above 5340, continuation of the bull trend for probably much higher prices (5500/5600). key levels: 5000 - 5337 bull case: Bulls want this breakout out of the wedge to succeed and continue the melt-up for 5400/5500. If bears fail to quickly trade back below the 1h 20ema, bulls have no reason to sell out of their longs. Besides that, not much technical stuff to talk about. Since yesterday’s PPI spike, we had consecutive buy climaxes and pull-backs are shallow. Invalid below 5290. bear case: Market is the definition of overbought, yet here we are. Bears need to start doing anything to get some bulls to take profits. As for now, this is just bullish and bullish only but do you really want to buy the ath for new longs? Momentum scalps, sure but besides that, I would rather wait. Bears need to break below 5300 and retest today’s open. Then we wait for the bulls to react and based on that we can talk about new lower prices. Invalid above 5345 short term: Neutral - trend is clearly up but I rather wait for now and see what the market does up here when OPEX is around the corner. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. trade of the day: The CPI spike got a pull-back to exactly the 50% retracement. Textbook buy at the 5m 20ema.by priceactiontds0
ES UpdateAnd now we're overbought on RSI and MFI. Dumped everything before I wrote this post. Made $4k on this stupid pump by going long yesterday, might take some of that and play for the dip tomorrow, but did well for a quick one day trade so might call it a week and go back to working on projects at home.by hungry_hippoUpdated 2211
S&P BUYI speculated that the market would be bullish. I got in the trade at 5300.00 and, I got out at 5305.00.21:56by PATGLLC0
Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024Trading Plan for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought after 9 consecutive green days. Expect high volatility and the potential for a substantial rug pull triggered by the CPI data release. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5257 (major), 5215-17 (major), 5208 (major) Major Supports: 5162 (major), 5133-36 (major), 5096-5100 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5272 (major), 5302 (major), 5329-32 (major) Major Resistances: 5362-64 (major), 5398-5402 (major) Trading Strategy Expect Volatility: Prioritize capital preservation during the CPI release and limit your trading activity. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5257 (if not already broken) or 5215-17 as potential long entry points after a CPI sell-off. Consider the 5162 and 5133-36 zones for deeper longs, but only on quick recoveries and failed breakdowns. Short Opportunities: Due to the bullish trend and the unpredictable nature of CPI day, avoid shorting unless the market reacts very negatively to the data. Monitor potential back-tests of 5302 or 5329-32, but proceed with extreme caution. Level-to-Level Focus: The breakout from the downtrend channel has created a volatile environment. Trade the provided support and resistance levels rigorously and take profits aggressively. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5217-20 holds after the CPI dip, there's potential for continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range, setting up for a later breakout towards 5285, 5294, and 5302+. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5257 (extremely unlikely) to continue upwards with minimal correction. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5217-20, especially if the CPI news is negative, triggers a larger dip. Monitor failed breakdowns at 5162 and 5133-36 for potential long entries. News: Top Stories for May 15th, 2024 📉 U.S. April CPI Report Released: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, indicating a slight moderation in inflation with headline inflation at 3.4% and core inflation (excluding food and energy) at 3.6%. This data is crucial for understanding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). 📊 Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The CPI data implies a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate adjustments. Despite a slight decrease in inflation, the rate remains above the Fed's 2% target, leading to market uncertainty about potential rate cuts (Federal Reserve). 🛢️ Sector-Specific Inflation: Significant contributors to the CPI increase included gasoline and shelter costs, which together accounted for over 70% of the monthly rise. Gasoline prices increased by 2.8% in April due to seasonal factors and changes in refinery practices (USA Today). 📈 Global Inflation Trends: The International Monetary Fund projects a global inflation rate decline to 5.8% for 2024, down from 6.8% in 2023. This trend is attributed to tighter monetary policies and a drop in energy prices, though regional variations persist, with hyperinflation in Venezuela and lower rates in developed economies (IMF). 🌐 Market and Trade Impact: High inflation rates can increase export prices, making goods less competitive globally, while countries with lower inflation may see more stable consumer prices and better trade balances. Geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to influence these dynamics (UNCTAD).Longby spytradingpro0
ES Trade Plan After CPIToday's trade plan will be very simple. I'm looking for a break and retest of 5300 for longs and shorts if it fails to sustain and break above 5300.by AdvancedPlays1
ES Morning Price Action Review 5-15-24Going over Morning Price ACtion ES pre CPI. looking for clues as to how to trade the day. Not much to do till we get the CPI. 01:26by BobbyS8131
ES IRL > ERL Long ideaLong idea for ES, wait to see what price does at that internal range liquidityLongby RapidSandUpdated 1
Buyers returnedBuyers returned in the S&P 500 waiting for the next challenge which is the release of the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The bias is for the market to continue higher but how it interprets and absorbs the CPI numbers is 50-50.02:09by DanGramza112
Small Account Challenge Day 2 QQQ Long Recap + Plans for CPIAnother green day for the challenge account, ended up with about $94 total P&L for the session. Most of it was made on a QQQ long and took a small loss on PYPL. I got over these trades and talk about my expectations for CPI tomorrow.08:03by AdvancedPlays1
possibility of a fallIt seems that due to the news, the upward trend has lost its strength, if the resistance is maintained, there is a possibility of a fallShortby forkman0
Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024Trading Plan for Tuesday, May 14th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but cautious given the 8 consecutive green days. The risk of a sudden pullback increases as the market becomes more overbought. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5235 (major), 5221-17 (major), 5210 (major) Major Supports: 5192 (major), 5174-76 (major), 5144-47 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5262 (major), 5272 (major) Major Resistances: 5302 (major), 5327-29 (major), 5400-05 (major) Trading Strategy Chop Zone Management: The 5235-5262 zone is a chop area, making it difficult to trade with high conviction. Avoid overtrading and focus on level-to-level scalping for small gains. Long Opportunities: Look for failed breakdowns at 5235 or 5210 for long entries. Prioritize reactions at these levels, ideally with quick recoveries. In the event of a deeper dip, consider knife-catches at 5192, 5174-76. Short Opportunities: As always, avoid shorting green candles and breaking trends. For those inclined to counter-trend shorting, consider 5272 or 5302 as potential levels, but proceed with extreme caution. Bull Case Uptrend Continuation: As long as 5235 holds (or any breakdown is quickly recovered), the bullish trend remains intact. Focus on a potential base building within the 5235-5262 range, followed by an upside breakout targeting 5272, 5290, and ultimately 5302. Ultra Bull Case: No dip below 5235, with continued basing above it. Reclaiming 5245 could be a signal to add exposure, but only with acceptance and no break above 5262. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5235 would trigger a potential correction. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at 5231, 5221-17, and 5210 for short entry opportunities, but prioritize a more significant level like 5192 for confirmation and to avoid traps. News: Top Stories for May 14th, 2024 China's Strategic Bond Sale: China initiates a substantial bond sale, aiming for $140 billion to combat its property crisis and stimulate economic growth through infrastructure projects. Russia's Economic Resilience: Despite Western sanctions, Russia's economy shows unexpected strength, with GDP projected to outpace the U.S. This resilience is attributed to increased non-oil revenues and strategic fiscal management. Indonesia's Nickel Boom: Western car manufacturers are flocking to Indonesia for its nickel resources, crucial for electric vehicle batteries, highlighting Indonesia's growing importance in the global EV supply chain. Meme Stock Mania Returns: The meme stock phenomenon resurges, with GameStop and AMC Entertainment experiencing significant price volatility following social media activity by influential traders. Global Economic Concerns: Leaders from Serbia, North Macedonia, and Georgia express apprehensions about the requirements for joining international economic communities, potentially impacting regional economic policies. China's Bond Sale and Global Implications: China's upcoming bond sale aims to bolster its economy and could influence global interest rates, foreign exchange markets, and international bond market dynamics. Meme Stock Resurgence and Market Volatility: The return of "Roaring Kitty" to social media sparks a renewed frenzy in meme stocks, leading to dramatic price swings in GameStop, AMC, and BlackBerry.by spytradingpro0
S&P500: Breather 😮💨The momentum in the S&P500 chart slowed down yesterday. With a view to the upper price target, however, there should still be room for further expansion in the current phase of the turquoise wave 5. Once the high has been placed, a larger corrective movement is on the cards. Please note our alternative scenario (38% probable). This option suggests the possibility of an already intact wave-2 sell-off. This scenario will be activated if the price falls below the support level of 4964 points. Longby MarketIntel0
ES1Tracking a 5 wave move. Falls in lines with SP:SPX and AMEX:SPY movements. Upwards trend needs to be respected Updates to follow. www.tradingview.comLongby Mouse42220
ES/SPY - Trade Setup Ideas for Short Term ES just broke below an ascending channel and made a double top at supply. However, it's still holding above 5240 so I think it could end up bullish, we have a descending trendline now that could lead to a breakout as well. I'd look to long if above 5240 with a target of the previous double top/supply. If it breaks below 5240, I like shorts targeting demand near 5200. VX will be important to watch as well. by AdvancedPlays0
Waiting for the fundamentalsWaiting for the CPI and PPI this week to drive the direction for the S&P 500. Although sellers came in on Friday and Monday, currently this market has a neutral opening with a bias to the upside.01:39by DanGramza2
ES Price Action Review 5-13-24going over the price Action ES for Monday 5-13-24. looking for clues as to how we could have traded better today and what the market was telling us.02:48by BobbyS8130
Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024Trading Plan for Monday, May 13th, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bullish, but extremely overbought and due for a pullback. Traders are advised to exercise extreme caution and prioritize protecting gains over chasing further upside. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5236 (major), 5225, 5213 (major) Major Supports: 5202-04 (major), 5186 (major), 5155 (major), 5112-15 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5246 (major), 5261 (major), 5272 (major), 5303 (major) Major Resistances: 5329 (major), 5354 (major), 5398-5400 (major) Trading Strategy Pullback Anticipation: Expect a pullback after 7 consecutive green days. Be prepared for a sudden reversal and adjust your strategy accordingly. Long Opportunities: Prioritize failed breakdowns at 5236, then 5213 for long entries. Look for bounces and reclaims, especially if price dips below 5209. Consider deeper longs at major supports (5186, 5155) only if the market shows substantial weakness. Short Opportunities: While avoiding shorting green candles and breaking trends is advised, monitor back-tests of 5272 and 5303 for potential short entries. Proceed with extreme caution and be prepared for sharp reversals. Consolidation Zone: Focus on the 5236-5261 range as a potential consolidation zone. Monitor the price action closely within this range for clues about the next directional move. Bull Case Holding Support: If 5236 holds, continued consolidation within the 5236-5261 range is likely. This would suggest a pause before a potential breakout toward 5272, 5285-88, and ultimately 5303. Ultra Bull Case (Unlikely): ES would need to hold above 5236 and continue building a base overnight for the most bullish scenario. This could trigger a move higher without a significant dip. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5236 triggers a dip, targeting 5213 initially, with potential to extend to the 5186-5115 zone. Monitor bounces/failed breakdowns at these levels for potential short entries. News: Top Stories for May 13th, 2024 1. Corporate Earnings Surge Details: A notable rise in Q1 2024 earnings has been reported among S&P 500 companies, with a majority exceeding analysts' expectations. Impact: This upsurge signals a strong corporate sector potentially boosting market confidence and influencing stock prices. 2. Central Bank Stances on Interest Rates Context: With persistent inflation, central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are cautiously maintaining current interest rates. Implications: This strategy aims to control inflation without disrupting economic stability, reflecting a delicate balance in monetary policy. 3. IMF's Global Growth Forecast Forecast: The IMF projects a global growth rate of 3% for 2024, with potential long-term economic challenges. Significance: This modest growth underscores global economic sluggishness, necessitating strategic economic measures. 4. Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Impact Developments: Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying, affecting global markets and commodity prices. Consequences: These geopolitical issues are critical for financial stability, influencing both market volatility and investor sentiment. 5. Key Economic Indicators Release Upcoming Data: Major economic indicators like consumer price indexes and retail sales are scheduled for release this week. Relevance: These indicators are crucial for assessing the economic health of major economies and will influence forthcoming monetary policy decisions.by spytradingpro1