SP:SPX
I believe that we top out here, temporarily. Retrace and then break the resistance. Then the proper dump begins, until we see capitulation and the end of the bear market.
There are two potential bullish events that could occur during the week of 12/05/22 to 12/09/22.
The first is a break above the declining trendline from the January 2022 top.
The second is a possible weekly RSI move above 54.81, this is the highest weekly RSI reading of the SPX June to August rally.
The current weekly RSI reading is 53.69.
An RSI move above a...
SPX sold off Friday and I prematurely stated that the top "may be in". Well, by the end of the day the fast down move from futures had been mostly erased - another example of the "never trust fast moves" rule.
The SPX futures ended with a hanging man candle, so further selling into Monday or Tuesday is certainly possible, but with the slow stochastic fully...
IDEA 3 OF 3
As the market transitioned from high volatility bear market to a low volatility bull market we saw that the VIX was transitioning and once it pushed BELOW the 20 level it stayed long term there giving ability for the market to rally up.
We want to use this precedent to study the current market and determine probable direction.
IDEA 1 OF 3
The bear market has been characterised by a moves of the VIX between 20 and 32.
We will see if the current market has legs by the way it acts from here.
Idea 2 will show how the VIX acts when we are easily moving up
FED PIVOT conclusion to take ENTRY:
FED PIVOT 2022 looks similar to 1973:
PIVOT MONTH=if occur in DECEMBER.
POSSIBILITY= <30% rise(BULL TRAP) (17.44% already happened) till
JANUARY followed by around 40% CRASH.
FED PIVOT 2007:
PIVOT MONTH=AUGUST.
14.99% rise till october followed by 57.69% CRASH.
FED PIVOT 2000:
PIVOT MONTH=DECEMBER.
10.31% rise(BULL TRAP)...
The market is a forward discounting mechanism and looking back my stance is that the stock market are anticipating a pause in the FED stance. Hinted on Wednesday by FED Chairman Powell who said "smaller rates increases are likely ahead" as soon as December.
If the market is anticipating a pause, THE GENERAL MARKET INDECIES are likely to push forward. This of...
Trendline from the start of the year was touched.
410 resistance was touched and rejected immediately, volume profile shows this was a key pivoting point all year
lower volume, and price exhaustion on 9 count(weekly+daily)
Bearish behaviour at 200 ma again
Fib retracement shows we are in the golden pocket like the other rallies this year(0.618-0.7)
Bearish...
Many investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend.
The economic sentiment is still bearish, many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued.
Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur,...
Since 1971 we have had 6 "major" Bear Markets.
Average Characteristics of Bear Market
👉 Avg Length: 536d
👉 Avg Depth: -39%
Current Characteristics of Bear Market
👉 Length: 282d
👉 Avg Depth: -28%
But as I have shared before around the web - the Length and Depth depend wether we have a recession or not.
FULL ANALYSIS HERE (this part starts +17:00 in):
...
🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
1 ✨Eagle eye: Super BUllish
2 📆Monthly: after a deep correction now, the impulsive move is just started
3 📅Weekly: bear trend/beartrap double bottom/ make lower high
4 🕛Daily: the clear bull trend toward extreme high
😇7 Dimension analysis
🟢 analysis time frame: daily
5: 1 Price Structure: bullish
6: 2 Pattern...
The SPX is on track for a possible mid- December top.
The next FOMC meeting is on 12/14/22 the SPX could top on that event or a few trading days after.
Note the RSI has still not reached the ovebought zone above 70%.
Watching this wedge range resistance on this run up. Seeing the HNS pattern on a down trend to confirm this potential drop ahead. Watching for the connfirmation reversal within the wedge for that potential drop retest. Just a thought
Green Trend from way way down. Purple current trend. Fibs, most important Fib is the bounce of 0.381 and weekly support, in my opinion a continuation for uptrend. Subject to losing the 0.382, not drawn, I'd draw a parallel channel for the current downtrend. The measured move, purple dotted mid level, forming a double top down (approx 1st August 24), a drop to the...
I think there's a good chance fat cats will push or at least spike in the area of 4360 in a last short squeeze and a deep desire to show some "not so nasty returns" to wealthy clients. I believe after that will be the beginning of the final move down spiking around 3290. That number is big intersection point of a lot of trends and support. It's also the going back...
Standard and Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.
TVC
