JHQTX and OPEX Window of Weakness
1. Vanna and Charm Flows gain strength
2. VIX Print for the month
3. Window of Weakness
Options and Vol are entering in a very fragile time when flows can be at their technical weakest.
When social media start speaking about goldilocks (economy goes not to hot, not to cold).
That could be this months OPEX (Options Expiry).
A...
SPX Monthly Log Scale:
-Despite last years 28% decline, the defining uptrends remain intact. In my view, the A1-B1 trendline best defines the bull market but decent arguments can also be made for C-D. A test of C-D would require that the market decline roughly 30% from the most recent close.
- In the absence of overtly bearish behaviors and with the primary...
On 02/03/23 the SPX bottomed in the area of two Fibonacci support points. The primary Fib at 4122.67, the secondary Fib at 4126.80.
Additionally the 15 - minute MACD - HIstogram has a bullish divergence, and RSI has crossed above its moving average line.
A move below 4105 could open the door for more downside action.
Mark
Real simple idea. All the Happy enthusiastic FOMO and BTFD tech stonks still trading at 700x PE. All Happy BS.
You BTFD here you gonna get a nasty surprise, surprise, surprise. This monthly view shows where RSI goes in a real Bear.
NB: U R HERE... U R NEXT! This won't happen overnight, it will be a painfull grind with some terrific knifedowns.
Real Bears last...
Hi traders. Honestly I fell that people just want to accept the reality and it can end very bad for them. This is way to much overextended bullish run in bear market with war in Europe. Of course this is just my opinion, but this is how I feel the market. Powell said that the will not stop any time soon with interest rates. This is very bad information, but people...
Hey Everyone,
Hope you’re having or.. well had I guess pretty much, depending on where you are located I suppose, a great weekend!
So next week, is a pivotal week. You may be wondering why. And that is a good question. Its not because there are any fundamental catalyst. Its not because there are major news releases. Its actually very simple really. Next week,...
1.rejection on trendline resistance (See RSI also)
2. Bearish Gravestone Doji candle finish
Yellow lines - Channel
White wave - 21ema
Purple line - bearish target or 4020
Similar resistance on QQQ
$SPX
SPX closed at 4136.49 after a big week with
multiple Earnings reports, Feds, and Data. We can
see some consolidation early this week between
4100 and 4150. As long as SPX can defend 4100 we
can continue up through 4200 in the next 1 to 2
weeks. Below 4100 we can see a 60-70 point
pullback. 4100 can present a good opportunity in
both directions....
SPX is at major resistance and a psychological level of 42,000.
The market is consolidating between 36000 and 42000.
Notice, how the price pulled back from the resistance in previous testing.
Price action created a bearish harmonic pattern .
We anticipate further consolidation.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea...
...must come down.
Conservation of Energy
We all know QE... The god-given gift which made everyone rich! Well, not everyone...
Consumers sure took a hit. But who cares about them?
We want corporations rich! And they got rich .
And boy some of them did go rich... That's the beauty of the American Dream!
Sure we were cheating...
...but look at all this...
The Buffet Indicator is comparing stocks marketcap to gdp. If the economy as measured by GDP isnt growing, then stock tend to bottleneck until growth returns.
In previous stock peaks, 2000 and 2007, the price action peaked and retraced causing a bear market trend.
To make it memorable, I overlayed disney princess castles, to burn it into memory.
I think we had structural trend failure of the bear market last week. Typically once a 86 is hit, we'll retest the 76 (Can go as low as 61, would buy there too) and then the rally continues.
Unless this has been a really brutal fake-out, we should typically see buyers coming in as we retest these levels.
If we do and we get higher, I think we're going to see...
As you can see for the past 9 years 30 year US government bonds was in positive correlation with S&P. The correlation is not 1:1 but about 80% of the times they move together. Two incidents where they were separated was March 2020 Covid event and the subsequent bull run. Even during most of the massive bull run they moved together but a drop in 30 year yields...
This price structure on the S&P is a very high probability bearish price structure. The primary bullish pattern in play is the orange bullish pattern where price is currently at C. The Second bullish pattern in play is the red bullish pattern where (Red B) is an extension of (red XA). The red B is the significant swing because it is an extension of its XA. The...
What's next for #Stocks?
The $DXY rally off Jobs report ought to be short lived with short positions closed by midweek. Expecting a short pullback (~3975) before retesting the weekly range high late February ~4350.
From there, FOMC will dictate risk appetite.
#SPX #Investing
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Further to my post on how the market could (Probably) most efficiently gain liquidity from bear stop losses and new chasers of the bull that, here's the big bat spike out pattern that could form and support this hypothesis.
Here was the bat into the final high of 2007.
Standard and Poor's 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period.
TVC
