The US10Y refers to the 10-year Treasury bond yield, which is a key indicator of the overall health of the economy and is closely watched by investors. "Analyzing the US10Y trend, a bearish butterfly pattern has emerged at the 1.276 and 1.618 level, indicating a potential bullish trend in 2023. This pattern suggested a reversal in the current market...
HAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to...
If you engage in futures trading, it's crucial to closely monitor quarterly shifts in DXY (US Dollar Index), EUR/USD, and yields. These indicators provide valuable insights into potential directional changes. Pay special attention to daily Market Structure High (MSB) and Smart Money Tool (SMT) patterns among correlated assets. Once a shift is identified, focus...
Since early 2021, the 10Y-02Y yield spread (an early bellwether indicator for a coming US recession) has undergone a long and deep inversion. Fears of economic instability as 10 year yields sharply rose in fall of 2023 eventually subsided as stocks rallied to close the year. However, the year also ends with a sign that another sharp increase in the yield spread...
Circle is the most perfect of shapes. It optimizes its area perfectly. An architectural marvel with no point of failure. And it is unique. All circles are similar to each other. Some small, other large. In the end identical. Cycle is the Hellenic word of Circle. I purposefully call it "Hellenic" instead of "Greek" Market cycles are just that, cycles/circles....
Bank of America says the recession and credit crunch could lead to large corporate defaults. Credit strategists at Bank of America note that the fallout from the recession and credit crunch could see $1 trillion in corporate debt eventually become insolvent. This is largely due to the fact that banks have already begun to refuse lending conditions after the...
Introduction Brief Overview In the complex tapestry of the global economy, few factors play a more pivotal role than interest rates. At its core, an interest rate is the cost of borrowing money, a fundamental element that influences economic activity. Governed largely by a nation's central bank, these rates are a powerful tool, used to control economic growth,...
Cooling inflation data in the US were the ones which were supporting optimism with market participants, indicating a good time to start purchasing the US bonds. The PCE data were published on Friday, revealing that the index was increased by 0.1% in November. The PCE is one of the favorite Fed's inflation gauges, which indicated to markets that the Fed might start...
Will we get an "official" #recession in 2024? 10 minus 2 year yields bullish 1 & 3 year sma cross
US10Y Bond - Monthly Supply and Demand Zones Price reached monthly supply zone. We expect sell until monthly demand zone.
waiting to use the liquidity under these prices then will be up to hit the weekly order block and touch the lower percents
In the first three installments we described an exercise utilizing the long term momentum in asset classes, the relationship between those classes and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the United States, in order to anticipate the business cycle and markets. Those posts are linked below. Since...
It was final time for the Fed to align with the market. At the latest FOMC meeting, this was the case, considering that rhetoric about potential rate increases was not at all in the spotlight of Powell's speech, but clearly slowdown of inflation and that FOMC members are perceiving Fed`s rates at 4.6% as of the end of 2024. This was a clear signal for markets that...
The real U.S yield curve (Blue) suggests that the U.S. Dollar (Yellow) may weaken over the next 12 months. The main beneficially will be Japanese YEN who haven't moved monetary policy for over 42 years. Currency pairs are relative to move so I see the Yen appreciating, followed by the EUR.
After 4 years of upward movement and reaching the ceiling of 5% yeilds. Considering the momentum of the current downward trend from the 5% resistance, as long as the wave counting is considered correct and not violated, all financial markets, especially bitcoin, gold, and the US stock market for about the next year (2024) may be ascending IF the bonds break the 5%...
Based on my analysis the US10Y Bonds has been in a bearish direction. Price broke the bullish uptrend towards this last quarter of 2023. I predict that it can go lower than 4%. I don't see it going back up close to 5% anytime soon. The Feds meeting this week will most likely have it go higher just to finish out the retrace between 4.2% and 4.3%. We are also in the...
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated that its interest-rate hiking cycle has ended and that lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024. This was more dovish than the market anticipated and the US 10Y yield has sold off further. The short-term downtrend lies at 4.22% and while below here we will assume that the US 10Y yield remains under pressure. We would also...
So I think we all understand that the ship has changed course. Fed comments yesterday caused some real margin calls. Lots of folks on the wrong side of that one. Lay either of these charts against the S&P and I think its plain to see we are ready for a pullback soon.