As the sellers show first signs of weakness, there's just another long opportunity. Not much to come by, but at least the previous high of Sep. 10th is expected to be matched.
Just 1:1 but I expect the September highs to be reached again.
Sliding down off of a a channel of declining parallel lines (GBP/AUD likes such channels, as I've observed). The minimum extent of the expected decline is at the thick cyan line, but there's potential for further fall - down to the support at approx. 1.6915.
GBP/AUD has failed to follow the grey up fork (and make it to the ML) - so now it's expected to complete the flipside of the recent up move (ie. make it to the downside the same price extent as it did to the upside, measured by the cyan quasi-fork), pivoting on the grey MLH. I think it seems to be following the red fork now, so I went short. However, the problems...
Price is more likely to break out of the rising range to the downside, but this market is so strong that I expect to shoot upward.
The pound being very strong recently should easily make new highs against the Canadian dollar. However, before it does that I'd allow for a retracement just below 1.63 or those surroundings.
I am looking for this wedge to resolve to the down side.
The recent move up clearly failed, so I expect the market to hit the red Median Line.
Still looking to go short in line with the brown fork. The price action first occurred above the multipivot line, now I expect it to play itself out as it flipped to the down side. I believe the bottom is not to see there yet - it's still in the making. This idea is also based on the Aussie's recent weakness and the Franc's relative strength.
Given the new cycle low may be around, the current support at the multipivot line may be strong enough to push the price back up to the green median line. That would also match the choppy nature of the previous swings. Despite the recent decline in price of this pair, the euro is still looking stronger than pound to me.
We're at or close to the cycle high that may spawn a decline to the bigger-time-frame median line (dark red). Strong resistance expected at 1.53000. To me this pair is still in a long-term down trend. The recent rally looks wedgy, which supports the reversal expectations.
The euro is clearly strong to me, so I'm unfazed by the recent selloff. I give it a good chance that EUR/GBP will retrace back up at least to 0.8659. The odds (derived from my research) are as displayed, but remember to have a stop in place, just below the previous swing low - you know, a stitch in time saves nine.
In the long-term perspecitve the British pound is weaker than the U.S. dollar. The scary up move of the late July 10th has lost most of its energy (as for me).
The pound may be going down against the franc and it probably won't stop until it hits some of the sloped support lines.
Choppy price action in an up trend. The euro is still quite strong and the pound is weak, so another rally in this pair is possible.
It looks crazy even to me, but I've had some evidence for such a scenario. If you don't like it, forget about it.
If I read it well and the up trend is still in force, the odds of reaching the targets are as marked on the chart (the source: my research). By the way, NZD looks to me like it was stretching its limbs first thing in the mornig after the wake-up - going to do something strong?
If the resistance holds, as it often does at the median line approached from beneath it, the down trend should resume.