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On Friday, June 16, we successfully closed our previous short-put trade on WPM (see previous post below). Today WPM is showing continued signs of weakness, in an otherwise strong market. It is currently trading towards the lows of its trading range. It could continue to show weakness if the broader market continues its journey upwards. However, in the context of...

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Breakout confirmed over 154.26 in good volume, as expensive technology stocks continue to correct downward and the market continues to chase better value. IBM can now be purchased with a stop-loss at 150 and targets of 158/162/168/180. Blended reward-to-risk of 1.5x to 2.5x depending on where the momentum on the stock takes us. In the best case scenario of IBM...

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The current dividend yield on Royal Dutch Shell is 7.22% - Some of the highest yields out there. Combining this with a similar yield on the 7% OTM put, and topping it off with additional income from selling an OTM call, brings in an exceptional annualized yield in excess of 15%. The risk is to be long an oil asset in an uncertain oil environment. However, this is...

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GOOGL yesterday broke out of its resistance at $1,000/share and closed above it. This is a noticeable and rare feat. The quality of the fundamentals/growth and the strength of the momentum on this stock are such that there should be few remaining short sellers (1.2% of free float) at the current stratospheric heights. While many would argue that “the valuation is...

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This comment takes over from the previous one (“SPX: Hesitation at the top, breakout at stake” - See link below). MAIN US EQUITY INDEX REMAINS VERY STRONG On a good day, this market goes up. On a bad day, it stays flat. This is the particularity of a very strong market backed by significant liquidity (QE) and an improving global macro backdrop. Add to that a...

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The index closed above its previous 2,400 resistance twice in a row, in what could be construed as a positive, breakout formation. However, and as I said in an earlier post (see below), this took place in low volume and therefore requires confirmation. US market futures are looking down today. Should the market slide below 2,400 today (which looks likely), this...

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FUNDAMENTAL PICTURE: CHALLENGING With a consensus recommendation to HOLD and an average consensus price upside of only +10%, it seems the average analyst is not too keen on owning this name. This could be explained by the diminishing topline (5-yr CAGR -5.65%) or the decreasing bottom line (5-yr CAGR -1.0%), or a combination of both reinforced by ROE trending down...

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FAILED BREAKOUT OF HISTORICAL TOP MEETS MOVING-AVERAGE SUPPORT DAL is currently trading 15% below historical high, after it repeatedly failed to break out since late last year, on what looks like a quadruple-top at the historical high. However, the corrective move seems to have met a decent support at the MA100, $44 level. I would venture to say that the stock has...

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Consolidating after disappointing earnings Stock down a little in an orderly fashion Approaching oversold levels on daily chart Rebounded off support of main up channel Long term trend still looking up Take advantage of the volatility and sell short-dated, close to the money puts... SELL DAIMLER 17MAR17 E66 PUTS = 1.35 (Ind.) and make some 17% annualized

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SUFFERING LIKE ALL US RETAILERS Signet is a US mid cap with a leading position in mid-market jewelry retail. It has most recently been impacted negatively by the dull holiday season, and has generally paid the price of the weak US retail environment. EVERYTHING HAS A PRICE? The shares have been suffering, and are consequently trading at inexpensive multiples...

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The precious metals sector was down hard yesterday on anticipation of further equity market upside post Trump Congress speech today. In this context, SLW was down most on twice average volume. While this would normally make us stay away from the shares, it offers excellent yields on the volatility spike, and a potential opportunity to build a position on the...

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BULLISH, OVERBOUGHT BACKDROP The SPX remains in a bullish medium/long term configuration. However, it technically continues to look overbought on most time frames, and will have to work out this condition if it is to continue upwards. A correction has been widely expected, but has not properly materialized for now. VISBILE TERM TURNING NEGATIVE since Wed March...

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MIXED PICTURE ON TWTR Fundamentals are still poor But the stock could be technically appealing TECHNICALS FIRST Up-channel in place since late May 2016 Short-term currently positive: Trading at the bottom of the channel Traders could trade the channel: Long around 16.50, short around 20.50 HOWEVER stock near historical low ($13.91) is insufficient to trigger...

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GOOD FUNDAMENTALS Consensus = Buy Valuation = Appealing (PE 13.42x) Growth and profitability = Exceptional (ROE 44%, 5yr growth +53%) Only target price is weak (flat), but could it be revised upwards? TREND PICKUP Sitting on the long-term MA50 support Closed just below the medium-term MA100 resistance Looks like it is possibly turning positive on the LT...

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THE GOOD Still showing positive momentum on most time frames, after a solid 51.23% rally in < 3 months. This is the type of behavior only such a momentum stock can produce. THE BAD Looking overbought on most time frames. Has been trying to work out this condition, as is visible on the daily chart (below): Hammer reversal at the historical high on Feb 14 followed...

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SIMPLE STORY Stock down on the back of disappointing earnings Expect further weakness closer to the US open, as US institutions adjust their portfolios This remains a quality defensive stock, quite compelling in the current toppish market context SIMPLE OPTIONAL STRATEGY Selling the June 16 puts with a EUR 69 strike indicatively brings in some EUR 2.00/share, or...

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This thread takes over from the preceding one, where we suggested to go long at 30 with a target at 34.50 - REACHED. FUNDAMENTALS IMPROVING Over the course of the past quarter, we have seen slow sequential improvement in AUMS The industry overall is doing better, in an environment where market conditions have been improving EXCELLENT TECHNICAL BEHAVIOR The stock...

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FUNDAMENTALLY APPEALING AND LEFT OUT Tyson Food is a consumer non-cyclical stock which has been left out of the "Trump" rally. Fundamentally appealing, defensive growth story (ROE 18.32%, 5yr rev growth 2.86%). The consensus has a BUY recommendation with 13% upside. Valuation is appealing, below market (P/E 13.9x). TECHNICALLY INTERESTING FORMATION TO TRADE -...