MikeSans

MikeSans

BLUF : SPX Higher and Short Bonds…Place Your Bets!!! Interesting Points : 1. DEBT CEILING is No more…the DC incompetents finally do something right! Govy Spending cranks up…good for the Macro! At least a 30-day lag of government money flows running through the global economic pipes! ***TCB declines, yields fall (bond prices go up). Its the Quantity...

MikeSans

BLUF : SPX @ 2995 and GOLD @1437…Place Your Bets!!! Summer-Sideways followed by a OCT-Run TRIGGERS : 1) Congress will vote on Proposed DEBT CEILING (DC) by TR of next week! If no DC solution before the August break then they come back in SEP and the Treasury is out of money! DEC 18….TBD **What does this mean? UST Liquidity Trap, No Gov Money Flows,...

MikeSans Updated 

“It’s a two-way street. There are bad investments and there are bad investors. If you are invested in risky buy higher yielding instruments – be very aware of the risks, which includes being locked in if the market turns. Don’t try to pretend otherwise. All of which means investors are wracking their brains to work out how to generate any returns. If they buy...

MikeSans Updated 

Summer pullback before a SEP 2019 Run! Things to Watch: 1) Debt Ceiling - Gov Spending Cranks UP - Money Flows - UST/USD Liquidity Squeeze dissipates! 2) Mr. T continues to strike...there is "NO Outcome." The TW Narrative is a Tax on Perception and eventually a Tax on BL's...it is also a "Credible Threat" just like the FED where it becomes a "Perception-Trap"...

MikeSans Updated 

BLUF: Monday is going to be a Wild-One, UP or Down...and Nobody Knows! A Tweet here or there...TBD!!! Who will fade first? Futures are predicting 100 bps Rate-Cuts...Get the @#$! outa here! Your smoking crack! Guess what, a weaker USD is not going to rescue you either! Bad News is Good News and Good News is Bad News... Beyond 2% the FEDs "Credible-Threat" is...

MikeSans Updated 

BLUF: Normal wave pattern Up-Down-Up-Consolidate-Repeat, low liquidity markets with low volume unless precipitated by a Tweet or Bad news is Good news and Good News is Bad news! Triggers toward Higher Highs (3000-3500): ivo Sep climb 1) G20 is a Non-Starter...Kibuki Theater with No-Real-Outcome, raise the BS Flag! 2) Fed Lowers FFR, maybe in July but more...

MikeSans Updated 

FED DAY...Does it really matter? G20 one week later...Does it really matter? "Reality-TV" at its Best and the leading character President Tweet (T). The best soap opera in town...the Fed & Mr.T, they were made for each other! I have no clue what direction this thing will go between today and Monday 01July,19, but it will eventually go down, they always do! Up or...

MikeSans Updated 

BLUF : The bottom line is not that the bond market is wrong, rather only too early. Fears running amuck...fundamental economics presently do not support an immediate rate cut by a “Data Dependent Fed”; and without a doubt NOT Four-Rate-Cuts by December. ***No Rate Cuts followed by Negative Sentiment at the G20 (Xi will not meet with T in Japan, they have proven...

MikeSans Updated 

BLUF: 100% G-Fund I sat out this current wave and until I see a more definitive picture, I will also sit out this next move until I see more validity of Mr. Markets direction. The market either continues up this week or retraces back down. The SPX has to break the last high of 2893, hold and goes higher this week before retracing for a second wave thrust or it...

MikeSans

BLUF : 100% G-Fund (Risk Off), I am not going to play this rally and will wait for the setup of what I think will be the reverse of 2018 summer cycle. I think you get a small rally here, not a big one and it continues its slide to ivo 2640 SPX and await further triggers or Tweets!!! Summary : 1. Trump's warning of 5% tariff on Mexican exports to the US came out...

MikeSans

Great opportunity after the entire Semi-Sector got hammered....AMD is getting a lot of active-activity in the tech forums (Third-Party-Manufacturing-Vendor Talk) there strategic plan going forward into the future. Looks like it is gaining upward momentum but the macro economy which is trending down, the TW narrative and Mr. Tweet could give you even better entry...

MikeSans

Current Assessment: Nothing is driving this May retracement except a market thats been conditioned by the Feds Expectations and TW Narratives that are wearing thin and the BS Flag is being raised. The "Real" problem is a UST Squeeze causing global markets and banks having liquidity issues due to Congress's debt ceiling policy until they raise it allowing the...

MikeSans

Todays-Setup may support a SPX re-allocation similar to last weeks pullback. Larger allocation for me remains 50/50 Risk-On/Risk-Off…too much risk in the markets considering the Trump-Put and the Fed…we are always on a “One-Tweet-Reversal” in either direction! I am going to watch carefully today, on these low volume pre-holiday market days, sometimes you get...

MikeSans

Macr o: *10Y TSY yield tumbling to 2.322% / 3 Month-10 Year yield curve has once again inverted, dropping to -3.2bps: The Bond market is telling the Fed to go $#%^# themselves because they are completely clueless!!! *Retail Sales: 7.2% drop in May so far? *Rut Index has been signaling and no one is watching…correlates to the down-trending economy! *Liquidity...

MikeSans

BLUF : 100% G-Fund (Bonds), waiting for the next entry point! Looking at I-Fund ivo 03Jun and jumping on any pullbacks in the C or S. Europe is not about to lead global markets, I just see a small opportunity in the I-Fund..TBD! Chart : Reflects past correlation to watch. The range that Traders shorting the markets thus increasing all of the volatility...

MikeSans

TSP Current Allocation: 100% F-Fund, taking profits and waiting for another entry point! SPX: The current wedge trend has broken and the divergence in the charts shows weakness with a possible Top being made with no other triggers in the narrative driving machine. My channel prior to the pullback was 3000-3500, I now would adjust that to 3000-3200 in the SPX...

MikeSans

5/15/2019 BLUF: 50% C & 50% S...so I moved the first position on Monday, today I will move the second position, then wait until the end of June…this is a higher risk allocation for most, you will never go wrong with time-discipline and leaving some in reserve. What’s next in the Trade-War Narrative of probabilities & likely outcomes…. “However, some...

MikeSans

TSP (Thrift Savings Plan) - BUY BLUF: The DC Clown-Circuit and the Fed are about as incompetent as they get…I/we do not care what you believe or what your politics are, this assessment is about seeing opportunity for TSP folks or any other retirement accounts and increasing our advantage toward increased-returns in our retirement accounts for a better/safer...