SMP99

SMP99

Down trend line for the past week may break to the upside today after two failures late yesterday and early this morning. With oversold daily and hourly readings, definitely not a place to be pushing shorts IMO. Levels of interest to me are marked. If the trend breaks up, a big snap back rally to 188-189 by EOD tomorrow would not be surprising.

SMP99

RSI on 15 min chart as not been above 50 since last Thursday. Getting above here today would be good sign that a bounce may have further to run. Last two days SPY has been sold pretty hard once 50 level has been reached. Get above 50 and the down trend line also has a shot of being broke to the upside with target of 190.50 and 191.40 up next. Otherwise,...

SMP99

The chart above is the second of two charts that I am watching that I believe show what is the current primary trend of the bull market that started in 2009. Part I (linked below) is a look at the primary trend using standard linear price, Part II is the same time period but viewed from a logarithmic price approach. Interestingly, I believe that each chart is...

SMP99

The chart above is the first of two charts that I am watching that I believe show what is the current primary trend of the bull market that started in 2009. Part I is a look at the primary trend using standard linear price, Part II is the same time period but viewed from a logarithmic price approach. Interestingly, I believe that each chart is currently giving...

SMP99

levels to watch

SMP99

Watching to see if we get a retest of the old trend line. Just a possibility. If so, support from there seems likely if a continued move up is in order. Otherwise, another break there might mean back down below 194.

SMP99

10-8-14: EURUSD back near the top of its recent channel that goes back to early August. Could be a rising descending wedge that if broke would give price target around 1.28660 which is also near recent support/resistance from sept. A weak/flat US equities market today may be needed to break the current resistance. A strong equities rally and the lower support...

SMP99

10-7-14: Down trend line was tested after the breakout Fri and held successfully Another test today may happen and if done in late afternoon could coincide with a fill of the gap at 194.64 without breaking back through the trend line. Also watching what may be a possible right should that has formed or will finish forming soon. Plenty of time for this inverse...

SMP99

10-6-14: Continuation of the Thu/Fri bounce may be the path of least resistance early on. But I am a bit skeptical of how far the bounce can carry. Levels I'm watching and deem important are marked. The market did break out and close above the old trend line from the ATH's and that should help short term. Should market continue up today, the 198.28 level may...

SMP99

10-4-14: Did last week's close break the recent weekly log trend line going back to Oct 2011? Definately seems like a possible scenario. The previous pull back also briefly dipped below this trend but was able to recover and close above the trend. If this trend is significant then even with a continued rally next week, I suspect that closing back above it on...

SMP99

An inverted H&S that if confirmed would be give a price target just above 197 is worth watching. Also we have a gap below 197 that would be filled with this move. And finally 197.10 are is a 50% retrace of the recent down move from the ATH's. This area also represent the price range in which price broke down from for the move Wed/Thu. If SPY reaches this area...

SMP99

Most likely scenario here is that not everyone is using the same SPY trend line as support. Looking from a daily perspective I have marked three trend lines that are at least being watched by many. And this is just daily, not to mention weekly charts and also log charts. Point is...there is likely no "line in the sand" for this up trend. They do all seem to...

SMP99

As others have noted, HYG can often be used an indicator for market turning points both to the downside and upside. In reviewing all significant pullbacks since Dec-2012 this seems to hold true. Of 8 occurrences looked 6 occurrences had HYG bottom before the S&P. 2 occurrences showed them to bottom on the same day. Average length for SPY to mark a low after HYG...

SMP99

Oversold daily and weekly readings are off the chart. ECB conference tommorrow could mark a S/T low. Worth a shot or avoid all together? Seem tempting to put in a small speculative position for a quick bounce.

SMP99

10-1-14: With any broad market weakness, or perhaps just the lack of market strength, GM appears to likely break a trend line that has been important since Jul-2011. With the current wedge being formed the final price objective would be 21-22 range. The first initial drop may take GM to the 27-28 range where there has been support/resistance found in the past. ...

SMP99

9-30: Pre-market SPY shows a gap up open above the trend line. Something I've been watching for lately. But a failed breakout is also a scenario I've noted and this might just be the set-up. For the break out to hold we need to see a successful retest and hold of that upper channel. If successful 198.36 then 199.21 comes into play. Otherwise, i'm watching...

SMP99

Both 195 and 199 by Friday? Seems very possible. I've been looking for a RSI divergence on the 60 min and one more push down today/tomorrow could likely give that. This could be the signal that a reversal is about to happen. Also possible to see a failed breakout above the downward trend line similar to the last pullback before a final push lower.

SMP99

9-29 Mon: The downward channel from the ATH is still working quite nice. Thursday's low matched up nicely with a 50% retrace of the entire August rally. Next levels to watch below will be 194.82 and 193.21. If the lows are broken after the open SPY could test the 194.82 area today and still be within the channel. Top channel line should be watched closely as...