Interesting similarities in the pullbacks. The question is whether we get one more touch of the upper trend line at 5.
Interesting similarities in the pullbacks. The question is whether we get one more touch of the upper trend line at 5.
Just a thought. Move could happen faster than people expect.
Recent declines in the dollar have previously lead to large rallies in DBA. As of yet the current decline in the dollar has not done much for DBA, however I anticipate this to change soon if the dollar continues the current pull back through the summer. A retest of the ~88-89 level on DXY may be coming and if so, DBA may break out of the current down trend which...
Natural Gas could be working on putting in the right shoulder of a inverse h&s. Above 2.71 would give added confidence to a likely retest of the noted neckline. The timing of this retest could occur within the next 2-3 weeks. Confirmation of this inverse h&s would have an implied target of ~3.7 with a completion likely this fall. Below recent lows at 2.6 and...
After 5 weeks of consolidation, the next leg in oil prices could be starting either this week or next. My bias is for an upward break out of the recent consolidation range of 57-61, If that occurs, i have upside targets of 63.5, 69.5, and 73. The time frame for completion of this next leg higher is approximately late June to mid July. A close of above the...
Just noting some interesting similarities compared to the late 90's. Both periods also reached an extreme low on the weekly RSI of around 13-14.
Long TLT at these levels at a confluence of possible support around the ~118 level. Additionally as noted in previous post (linked below) 30 treasury rates are approaching what could be significant resistance. Targets are 120.70, 121.70, and 122.80. Below recent lows would imply increased chance of visiting ~114.75.
After a failed breakdown below the 2008 and 2012 lows, 30 yr rates have bounced back into a trend line that has mattered since 1980. Was support for decades and may continue to act as resistance as we saw in March 2012 and March 2013. A pullback here at this trend line will be bullish for TLT.
POT broke down below a long term uptrend line back in March but the selloff has not been able to gain momentum. No position here, but watching for possible false breakdown and a move back inside the uptrend line. If so, a larger move back towards 40-45 may be coming after some initial resistance ~$35-$37.
JAKK is trying to put in what looks to be a breakout on the weekly chart of a downtrend going back to 2012. This stock is also heavily shorted, in excess of 40% of float (april 15th data). The combination of these two may push JAKK higher over the medium term. Initial target is 8.25 and secondary target is 9.50 level. Currently long and will look to add if...
DDD is approaching an interesting level. A combination of support from the downward sloping channel going back to Dec 2013 along with a significantly oversold daily RSI may provide the means for a quick bounce. Vertical lines note similar times previously where daily RSI has moved below 25. The past three instances (within the downward channel) has produced...
No reason to jump in at these levels IMO. Consolidation around these level into the summer seems likely, ~35.5 - 39.5. Best position for now is to watch the levels noted.
The break down in the long term trend line of HYG/TLT that occurred in December is currently being back tested. If the breakdown holds, this will mean Treasuries are set to outperform HY. Reversing the under-performance of treasuries to High Yield that started in February. A quick move to $88 from current $90.35 on HYG would not be surprising.
Using the 90 day ROC on TLT, we can get a picture of where we stand from a time/price movement compared to previous sell-offs of TLT. On the ROC below I've noted the point in the ROC that in the past has either produced a bounce or once broke, produced an additional move lower before setting up a bottom. Short term 118-118.40 is worth watching to see if support...
No way to know just yet. Interesting long term pattern worth watching. A succesful break above would seem to set up a nice long term move.
No reason to over complicate this. A weekly close below the yellow will get you to the green line, a modest (compared to the two previous breaks) -26% drop. A break this summer on a weekly close would require 202-208 depending on timing.
Here is a long term view of a few ratios that may help to view current market valuations. I used the DJIA in order to get a longer time series. It’s not my preference as market capitalization is not accurately portrayed via the index but I still think these ratios have value. So how is the current market valued? Bears can point to GDP to market capitalization...