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The post with the short term analysis for NG has gotten quite cluttered. So today I start a knew thread with more of a long term analysis. Unfortunately commodities most often don't adhere to the five wave pattern of the impulsive movement. Commodities rather form connected big three wave moves. So I like the idea that we are in wave C of a bigger wave Y down....

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In the latest weeks the CoT-data showed a build up of a big net-long position of the commercials in the CAD-Futures (6C), which suggests, that CAD may soon see a big move to the upside. That of course means a big short potential on USD/CAD. So I did a EW analysis on a weekly timeframe and took a closer look at the CoT-data. In the CoT-indicator I framed a mean...

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Today I want to take a look at Adobe because I think it could soon become interesting again. First we want to take a look at the long term picture. We can see that in november 2021 a decade long bull run found its end. On log chart we can definitely mark this bull run as a wave 3. The ensuing correction is than wave 4 of a supercycle. The interesting question...

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As long as Costco doesn't fall below 447.9 it looks like it is in a big wave 4 of Supercycle degree. A Supercycle that started in October 1987. This wave 4 is developing as a triangle. Wave e of that triangle should reach approxemately 465 - 468 Dollar. From there a reverse fibonacci would indicate a target for wave 5 at about 1100 USD. This is all in log scale.

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Earlier today I did a little educational piece on the CoT-data where I showcased a chart of the S&P 200 E-Mini. I explained, that the buying action of the commercials in september of 2022 probably indicate, that it is a larger bottom, that will possibly hold for years to come. So I look to the upside in ES although the short term patterns are quite difficult to...

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In the short run we will probably see rising prices in the gas and oil markets. Can energy companies like Chevron benefit from that expected movement? It is not easy to tell. This year so far the performance was quite meager. But in the near future we should see an upward move in CVX. The only question is, whether it is a final move without much steam or the...

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WTI suffered a defeating Blog today. Up until now I favored a bullish outlook considering seasonality and the positioning of the commercials according to the CoT report. From an Elliott-wave perspective we are at an important short term juncture. Should WTI breach the latest trough at 70.39 additional downside potential into the 58 region will be activated. If it...

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I like like the thought that after the end of the corona pandemic some stocks of the „old economy „ may catch up. One of those fallen stars may be Alcoa. I expect double 1-2 move unfold to the upside. The second wave two has ended or is about to end soon. In the expectation of an ending wave two I built a small long position after the sharp rebound from...

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A little idea how gas could continue in the short to medium term. I think that we are still in a wave 3 down. The current recovery from the lows would be wave 4 of that 3rd wave one degree lower. After the end of this 4th wave at 2.66 or max 2.86 wave 5 will see new lows. After that wave 4 of the intermediate degree would lead to almost a doubling to around 4 USD.

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Hi guys today I want to do a short educational on how I use the CoT-data to validate longer term EW counts. Normaly I update my CoT-Spreadheets on Sunday. But since we have been waiting for the data to be released for three weeks now, I have time to show you, how useful it can be. Unfortunately my english writing skills have detoriorated over time but I guess...

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The wave 4 correction in AAPL which started in january of last year seems to have bottomed on january 6. Since then a new move to the upside has started, that looks impulsive (the Mob is at 133.41 USD). The red wave 4 most likely didn't finish yet. It should probably reach the 38.2 retracement of wave 3 at 146.13 USD. From a cycle perpektive I expect the trough of...

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On friday january 20 I posted an idee in the German version of Tradingview calling for a bottom in CSCO. Since then CSCO rallied in two distinct upward waves, which I would identify as a double 1 - 2. If you look at a seasonal chart of CSCO it suggests another trough around january 30 - 31 before further rally up until may. If the rally from january 25 is an...

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Most commodities are highly cyclical and don't develop in the usual 5-wave-patterns. In the long run commodity-chars look more like a series of succeeding 3-wave moves.Therefore a longterm EW analysis is difficult in a way makes no sense. Nevertheless I devoloped a longerm chart for coffee and a shorter term analysis with a seasonal chart as indicator. In the...