cpi and ppi showing exactly what ive been saying for months. when you devalue your currency you import inflation and export deflation. industrial production, gdp... etc coming up. the question is. can china keep a lid on inflation and a forced devaluation? i say Pandora's box is in a precarious position
theres some kind of deal in the works
deal or no deal. if hong kong is crushed any trade deal agreed upon will likely be scrapped. inflation is bubbling more and more and the likely for protesting will increase in intensity. if china cracks down expect no deal or a interim deal voided
where will we go no one knows, the only thing we do that the range is likely to contract til volatility pushes us in either one direction or another.
asian financial crisis. extremely likely due to liklihood of fomc coming out hawkish. watch the dollar ;)
african swine flu is taking hold in china making pork prices extremely pricey in china. i expect a de-escalation in the trade front until after chinese new year. china is the largest buyer and producer of pork. if over half their herd is infected during the highest seasonal demand time. the common person in china would loose their ish. the fact is they need to...
be open to better than expected outcomes via trade?
there are two main markets for global trade. the euro and the us dollar. by weakening the euro ( M3) it forces flows into the dollar..
one again fade it. just eurozone M3/printing press to try and buffer brexit.
dollar spot dxy is currently above dx1! and dx2!. this will likely drag up those futures months and exacerbate the global supply demand issue for dollars. this in part is due to the yield curve inversion this in a technical sense would be a liquidity trap. certain counties like china need dollars in order to contain inflation. my call is the dollar will overpower...
more inflation. more corruption. more instability. consider why these protests are happening? consider why a goverment may use inflation as a weapon to suppress..
keep your eyes open for brexit stuffs