VROCKSTAR

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5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:LULU - clearly there's something wrong on a day like today where mkt is ATH and moving higher and 23x next year PE LULU is getting crushed. this is a bad omen for EPS, or the expectations need to come down and the stock is incorporating this. the real conundrum is beyond a beat (if that's the case this RIPS), the stock is going to...

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5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ANF - heresy to dislike this valuation? i get it's had a renaissance. it's profitable. 5% yield that's good! 19x PE! good capital stack. it's still cheaper than NASDAQ:LULU without any of the baggage all else equal. the issue here, my friends, is this price point is becoming more and more problematic. NASDAQ:PDD 's temu just crushed...

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5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:CAVA - taking a look at google trends... clearly we've not hit peak cava so... the market has tended to love these stories in the last 6-12 mo where you can't even see the peak. so valuation be secondary - even if it's 10x sales. NASDAQ:WING is closer to 20x, right? investing all profits (so no free cash) for cava... into growth?...

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i sense this is one to either get rid of sooner than later if you own it and find a new spot. the px/ valuation at 16x and again the optics of HSD fcf yield look reasonable - but under the surface, these are more expensive than meets the eye on a pro-forma basis and the owners realize this b/c they've been selling the stock more vs. the index. gl to the holders....

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5/28/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:APPS - don't think much changes from my prior (non-public) comment heading into the last print in Feb. the capital stack is basically the main problem here. massive short interest at 8 DTC keeps this think probably moving pretty dramatically one way or another. but given the size of the company and the impending AI disruption...

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5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:OOMA - interesting setup w/ MSD growth, good product zip code, generates cash (but 200% of it is stock comp - in other words, it's not organic yet). like how 50% ish of the opex is R&D - that's great. valuation is *fine* at 16x PE, capital stack seems to not have a debt/and or stock dilution problem. the stock looks to be setting up...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:DOMO - setup is ripe for a short (which these days i can only justify w/ P's if it's small cap stuff like this). the reason is... they literally are everything you can't own in this tape 1) broken stock, not a meme 2) years of dwindling growth, zero this yr 3) don't make money, burn; and would be worse if adj. for stock comp - a...

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5/23/24 - NYSE:MED - hit my greedy "take a look" target today. so here i am *taking a look*. let's be 100% clear - this company is facing some totally chit trends, comping down 50% growth and who know where the bottom is. i'm taking a small (and i mean small) swing here for a few reasons, however 1) macro tape seems to be driving risk away from the most spec/...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:MLAB - looks like a trap w/o proper DD or insight on trends. 5% yield fine for growth, but 100%+ of it is stock comp on a sinking currency (the stock). if you take out R&D, the GP growth is simply a function of uptick in sales growth, no leverage here and increasing R&D budget too. this looks like a name run by PE that ultimately...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ROST - a good play on affordability like NASDAQ:COST NYSE:BJ (which reported good #s in this AM) and then we even see semi-discretionary stuff that's still discretionary makeup ( NYSE:ELF ) doing fine. it's the pricey and let's wait category (or let's finance it category too) that are suffering the...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:DECK - expensive but not a short, at >30x PE, 5% fcf yield. great brands, esp play across the affordability spectrum. don't have the NASDAQ:LULU curse per se is the point. NASDAQ:CROX is good omen, NYSE:ONON too etc. i'd be tempted to go long this into the print, but i'm currently focused on a few other swings and this seems like...

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5/22/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ELF - let's get real. the elf customer is probably sippin NASDAQ:SBUX , buying at NYSE:TGT and doing this all while wearing $lulu. while elf is a good discount brand, and that in theory *helps*... makeup is something that these customers already own a lot of... and if their replacement cycle starts to slow, or retailers are ordering...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:INTU - great name, obviously, but nearly 40x earnings is a tough spot for me to get excited. one interesting chart is if you plug in "INTU/QQQ" to your trading view and notice the stock hasn't broken out vs. the nasdaq (it's traded flat at best) for the last 5 years (since 2019). that's to say, it's great performance, but if you're...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:WDAY - not the best setup into the print, high teens sales and EPS growth (~16% this year) gets you 40x PE and 7.5x sales, 2-3% fcf yield (without a stock comp illusion). basically this stock is priced for perfection here, which if you see recent prints... sales hasn't been beating by a lot. a lot of these enterprise names have had...

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5/22/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:MDT - valuation interesting at 17x PE for what looks like a nice cash generator (6% fcf yield minimally). the issue is really growth which is either flat at best this yr or probably -ve. these unfortunatley are simply un-ownable companies in this tape which is prioritizing growth-ONLY. so while i'd be interested lower and am setting a...

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5/22/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NTES - not typically one i'd buy to hold, but the setup looks reasonable into the print at 13x PE, growing LSD and throwing off mountains of cash (and the buyback presumably should increase) and without a stock comp issue as i've discussed in other comments. high single digit FCF yield, growing and LT index-beater (though not in thee...

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5/22/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NVDA - on many fronts the stock is objectively 'cheap' when considering their 1) lead 2) moat (this includes sofware/ cuda) and 3) growth rate and seemingly unending (for now) backlog. high 30s PE, not bad for one of a kind growing EPS 50% cagr for next few yrs, 20x sales? expensive but put it in cash FCF terms, 2% yield at the low...

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5/21/24 - vrockstar - 1 bn fcf on 15 bn ev is MSD fcf yield, ok, 15x PE on msd rev grow and 10% eps growth, ok. 6x sales meh, like 5x more for this growth when comp to similar or better growth B2B/non cyber names. not outgrowing leaders is drawback in this industry. israel geo also tends to get disc. in this mkt stock seems fairly valued all else equal ~150$/shr....