Vixtine

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Recession, Stagflation, Inflation, Dollar Strength, Russia/Ukraine War...how about labeling the current market turmoil what it really is; A Bond Bust! As you can see from the monthly chart below, in Jan 2022 the US10YR Yield bullishly broke the neckline of an inverse H&S that formed between June 2019-Jan 2022; then in March of 2022 it broke up again from major...

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For all the BTFDer’s trying to figure out where to "go long”….please take a break right now and stop trying to pick a bottom. IMO a dangerous flush down could form from this type of set up. Might I remind you of the same bullish set-up that formed from the Covid low:

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On August 15th it became known that Berkshire Hathaway dumped its Verizon Communications, Inc. position and since then the stock has lost about 13.5%. While I do see this as an overall headwind for the stock it could be due for a bounce and looking over the monthly chart IF a bounce was to occur it would in the $39 area as we are about to test a very long term...

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Monthly Chart is self explanatory showing the areas the bulls must defend! I went back to all previous bear markets to see how the "trending channel" and blue line played out and it has helped me to develop some key areas today that must be defended by the bulls. (NOTE: The trending channel was establish by taking the ATH, next low, then next lower high...I...

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The bear market began in the SPX/SPY/ES on Jan 3, 2022. After we had a "close to close" greater than 20% I began studying bear market bottoms from a charting perspective. I wrote a post on Aug 17th analyzing every bear market bottoming process on the daily timeframe...if you have not yet looked it over it's worth a gander. I warned the bulls not to get too...

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Island Reversal are powerful reversal signals so as a swing trader I'm always searching these out and/or watching them form. The most powerful Island Reversals generally occur around some sort of news event (or sometimes prior to a news event if Wall Street is in the "know") and typically leads to fairly violent initial move to the upside or downside. What is...

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This weekend I wanted to exam the topping process of previous markets that had expansive down draws to see if any of them resembled or was similar to today. The only topping process that is following the same visual set-up on the Quarterly timeframe is 1973. Of note: The two Quarterly spikes above the red dotted line produced what some traders might call a...

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Island Reversal's are said to be some of the strongest reversal patterns...typically the strongest ones form at a significant top or bottom and are usually news driven. While I do not feel we are at any sort of significant top; I do see today's price action as a near term reversal pattern as long as we can hold the gap that was created between Friday's close...

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This chart shows the last 10 years and all the non-horizontal breaks that occurred on the weekly after an ABC correction. (ABC corrections are defined as an ATH (all time high), followed by a lower low, followed by a lower high and then a final lower low.) The RUT (Russell) broke its non-horizontal trend line last week. You can also make the case the DJI...

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Gotta love simplistic charts.... Tried to publish this idea with the above simplistic sentence but apparently you can't publish an idea with such a few words...sometimes it's best to KISS (Keep it Simple Stupid).

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Last weekend I posted about wickless gaps and how those are continuation patterns. I also made a statement that I did not think we would see SPX at 4K for a while. The above chart shows my thinking process since many traders on TV are calling for a possible retrace to 4020 levels. IMO the June 6th weekly candle made a very bold statement...it bearishly...

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For me, as a full time trader, writing out my ideas allows me to verbalize my thoughts even if no one views them or cares...I do them for myself and myself only. It gives me history of my thinking process and helps me in the everyday learning process of being a full time trader. In fact, I'm always talking to myself to gain an understanding of my thought process...

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Do we revert to the 50 year mean in 2032? That would put the Dow at 14,500 in 2032 if the cycle repeats. Found it very interesting that it was exactly 50 years to get a low & bounce from the Great Depression bottom. Every mega bear market is different so IF this is the start of another mega bear market that takes us to the lower blue line on this log chart...

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A bearish or bullish candle followed by a day were the cash VIX opens & closes within the previous days candle AND are the opposite color are typically signs of a VIX reversal. IMO the very best signals are ones where the inside day is smack in the middle (this is based upon a visual) of the previous days open/close (the green arrows on this chart). However, the...

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I posted about TNX at the end of March and warned that we were in unchartered territory. At that time, TNX had bullishly crossed the monthly cloud which was something it had not done during my lifetime nor probably most traders lifetimes. We are just about to quarter's end (June 30th) and you can see a clear breakout on an Inverse H&S is occurring. I see...

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Disney is ending Q2 in a very precarious way...Anyone believe another 50% price reduction from here is possible? Although Q2 just closed above 2016 Q3 low close of $92.86 the quarterly chart is signaling another bearish quarter or two could be on the horizon. The key bearish points are notated on the chart...I'll be watching the blue trend lines closely. ...

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Chart says it all.. On June 13th SPX opened the week by heading straight down, it tried to rally on Wednesday on the Fed news of a rate hike (LOL) but could never get above Monday's high and then failed miserably the rest of the week to produce a bearish weekly closing candle. And this was a week after an already bearish close the previous week which produced a...

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I was a bullish hopeful at the start of the week...I was thinking we would fill the 4K gap on the ES and then just go. Instead we spent 4 days closing below this figure. Yes, we closed the week above it and kept the lagging span just above the cloud but we cannot go anywhere with the DOW and this chart says it all. Neckline is clearly broken. Now, I do think...