chinawildman

chinawildman

After the recent surge it's right in the middle of a bearish gartley PRZ. If it blows past 175 then the gartley is invalidated and it'll likely head to 190+ for gapfill and completion of rev H&S. However I'm seeing some bearish divergence on RSI on this recent rise and it's still in a distribution trend despite price having rallied. My hunch right now is that it...

chinawildman

For some reason TWLO price seems to tank whenever CMF spikes. Here we got what looks like may be a three drives pattern. 1.41 isn't a primary fib ratio, but it is a complementary ratio so could still be valid. Target of .618 retrace matches up with a convergence of channel/price/psychological support @ around 100.

chinawildman

Popped above the ATH then closed below it. Also closed right at the 1.27XA extension of a bearish butterfly. Looks like it's been distributing for several days leading to this breakout which looks like opex buying. If it can't move above the ATH in the coming sessions it may validate a reversal that kicks it all the way back down to the bottom of this channel and...

chinawildman

Weekly RSI looks to be on the upswing from oversold levels bouncing off the 0.886. Bullish shark pattern would imply a minimum 0.5 retrace which lines up w/ gap fill around 62. There's what appears to be a three drives pattern here too though not ideal, but the idea is there for a reversal. Might start w/ some June calls here or wait for a successful breakout and...

chinawildman Updated 

Bearish bat rejection at the .886 again. Last time it didn't quite make it into the PRZ and got thrown back all the way for a 100% retrace. Let's see if it get rejected here again. My hunch is the run-up last week had a lot to do w/ quad-witching options expiration and we're due for a pullback. CMF showing divergence. A close below the prior recent high of 1709.50...

chinawildman Updated 

Buy the crash... pun intended. Looking for 50% retrace of shark around 386. RSI looks to be diverging and accumulation is solid.

chinawildman

Despite the earnings pop, as long as it doesn't close above 296.40, the deep crab is still valid. Hit the .382 target once already, looking for it to fall out of that red triangle to start another short. Shorted it at 299 Friday but probably took profit too quickly. Target 265.

chinawildman

A little late to the party here but this one should be shorted on any kind of pop until earnings. Went w/ March 22nd puts since IV made the 28s too expensive. Looking for 0.5 retrace at completion of H&S at the bottom of the current down channel.

chinawildman

The PRZ for the large bearish shark has proven difficult for FB and now it's finally had a daily close below it, meaning the entire shark pattern is in play. Daily RSI has been diverging for awhile now so all it needed was a little shove in the right direction. Notice how despite rallying hard off the bottom today, it simply could not break back inside the box. A...

chinawildman

Heavy accumulation and money flow in. Looking for a inv H&S to take this up to gap fill at the .382 retrace by mid April.

chinawildman

Just completed its H&S pattern. Look at this monthly chart and all the converging resistance overhead. Not to mention a large bearish cypher w/ textbook fibs. 0.382 retrace points it back down to major support around $490 by summer. Accumulation levels are about what they were when this stock was in the double digits... yet this "growth stock" is getting pumped...

chinawildman Updated 

PERFECT three drives pattern setup w/ 1.27 fib. Looks like it will have a sucker's rally up to the high then dump on retest. Looks like there's no way daily RSI won't diverge at that point. Watching this one closely as it's a rare pattern.

chinawildman

Money's been leaving this thing since mid Feb despite it rolling upwards... My long term thesis on AAPL is that they are basically still living off the reputation that Jobs had built. They haven't innovated and done anything groundbreaking since he passed and are basically trying to use their capital to copy other first-to-market products. They are the new 90s...

chinawildman Updated 

I hate gambling on earnings (in 2 days) but with how much the algos have respected the pattern's PRZ in the past month and money flowing out there's something going on here... Gonna roll w/ Apr 110 puts (pretty cheap) here and see what happens.

chinawildman

Bearish shark implies a 0.5-0.618 retrace to the green box... where it'll paint a right shoulder for either a small inv H&S or the larger H&S. The green arrow seems more plausible since the indices just seem to accumulate with abandon on Fridays.

chinawildman

BS being baby shark... just like last week. Like last week the market spit it out of the .5-.618 PRZ at the close, albeit this time there were a lot more buyers that seemed to step in at the close. 279.65 is the level to watch as if it moves above it we'll likely go to the .886 retrace which prolly means a decisive breakout from the downward channel. RSI looked...

chinawildman

Wow did not expect that... the breadth of the move completely destroyed any potential bearish harmonic patterns extending from the Friday low. That said it's rare that a retrace from a bullish shark completely blows through the 0.5-0.618 PRZ with nary a scratch. A continued move out of this zone typically means a retrace to .886 which is about 281.30...

chinawildman Updated 

The bearish bat pattern on AMZN turned out to be absolute money as it retraced 100% of the pattern. If you weren't a wuss like me and took profit at at the .382 retrace but instead held all the way props to you. Here's a chance to make some skrill on the way back up. Bounced from a bullish crab , again we're looking for that .382 retrace. Happens to line up with...