Comments are on the graph: I saved this chart last week and it is turning up from the red circle support zone I had outlined for myself. I like to see the chart pattern "wash-out" stop loss orders under previous correction lows to free up a stock from short term traders. Those declines set up very reasonable risk to great reward trades. I do like to see 3...
GM is trending up steadily and volume patterns indicate that buyers are far stronger than sellers. The sellers dried up at the $25 level and the buyers stepped up and got aggressive at the $25.50 level and gapped up GM to $26+. Buy any corrections and look for a 10% choppy rally over the month of April. Note how the volume dried on each successive price...
The mood created by this pattern is one normally associated with euphoria. Each sharp break leads to a new high and each sharp break is a little less than the previous. The net result is that the buyers have pushed the stock up to an unsustainable price that once it stops, it trips stops and then triggers a sharp decline to the bottom of the triangle formation. ...
The breakout of the base in TBT (which is a breakdown of the top in TLT) set up a rally to the projected target created from the measurement of the first green triangle you see on the chart. This breakout pattern could very well go another measured move from the breakout level projecting up to the "MAX TARGET" within 23 days from the breakout of the range labeled...
Re-entry short here in GG. The rally on Bernanke comments about ready-and-willing QE stimulus put a pop in GG shares. If you read the previous chart comments, you can see my thoughts on the decline and now that we have had a good rally on news, it will likely be a decent risk:reward entry for the continuation of the downtrend in GG shares and gold mining shares...
AMZN great example of relative down volume: This is from a chart I had saved back on March 8th. I didn't publish it, but I felt it was worth publishing now anyway just to show how I had analyzed the moves down and how investors were absorbing shares being sold and how it shows up in the chart. What a technical trader needs to look for is the amount of volume...
The strength in equities is forcing the hands of bond owners to lighten up on their overweighted positions. I believe it makes trading sense to sell rallies in TLT and with the latest 3 point move up from this Monday's low providing us with a reasonable risk/reward entry level. The risk is roughly 3 points and the reward roughly the same. I view 114 as a...
The USD/Canadian Dollar has been bouncing between a base at 0.98-0.97 and massive resistance at 106-105-104 for the past 6 months. The price is quiet here against this 0.9900 level and it appears that the downside momentum is over for the time being. I can also imagine that investors have been hiding in the Canadian Dollar for the past few years as a resting...
SPY options expiration is highlighted by red circles around the closing prices each 3rd Friday of the month. These levels end up being support and resistance and I look for the market to respond at these levels. You can see that the last sell-off fell back to the two old expiration levels from last year. Granted, that is a long time ago but at least it looks...
Here is a simplified analysis of the rally from the October low. I break the chart down very simply, but I think very usefully to show that the market has two "time clocks". One clock counts the time at the last most-frequent consolidation and the other counts time from the low to the end of the last consolidation. You can see that we run out of "time" on the...
I have labeled support levels and resistance levels and I am looking for this level to hold here and for a rally back to $22 where I will gladly exit for a 10% gain. I believe the risk is less than the $2 potential reward that I see, but unless you buy put options to lock that in, there is no guarantee. If there is a drop to $19, then all the better as the...
I am stepping a little bit out onto a limb on this call, if only because HD has had such a strong, persistent advance from last fall. When you consider earnings for Home Depot peaked 7 years ago it is a good reminder that HD is a cyclical stock. Cyclical stocks tend to look great after big rallies and they look terrible on the charts going into bottoms. Well,...
$15.50 target by May: 9% rally potential. Downside risk 8% to $13. If you can be patient and get an entry under $14, then the odds improve but the quality of CODI allows me to accept current prices. The company is located in Westport, CT and although the stock is not liquid, it does provide a dividend of 10% at current distribution rates. Keep it on your...
See previous chart for additional comments. Cheers. Technical Tim, Tuesday, March 6, 2012 12:48PM EST
Here is just another way to look at how nicely WMT is positioned versus the overall market. The recent wave of news pushed WMT down to a decent level and the recent linear-rally in the overall market (perhaps dragged up by technology and oil shares) has a reasonable profit-potential sitting on the table. Upside: 5% in the next two weeks. Risk: 5%. By: ...
I added a new forecast onto the old commentary of GG from this past fall when I pointed out that GG is a trading stock and not a stock to buy and hold. So far the recent selloff has started the snowball rolling down the mountain from my perspective. I could see a slow, grinding decline through until summer. The "point of maximum optimism" is a price pattern...
Now that GM has cut back forecasts for the Volt, this may free up some attention for TSLA and its hot new electric car model coming out this year. The world may be saying that electric cars aren't for everyone, yet, but it appears that stockholders are steadily stepping up to the bar and loading up on shares. Time will tell if they can make a profit and deliver...
This is more of an entertaining chart comparison than anything but it does have a lesson in it. Isn't it strange how many markets just end up acting the same even though there is no reason for it? That's the beauty of raw data - we can find patterns in it that really aren't there. Causal or correlation is often the question but clearly there is no connection to...