Technically XOM is extended and showing signs of rapidly depleting buying support in the stock as it has climbed. With so many stocks in basing formations and with VIX down near 14, it is time to start layering on some shorts. I'm looking at MCD, GS, AAPL amongst others for shorting candidates. 4:13 PM EST, Thursday, Aug 16, 2012
Technical action indicates a move higher, chewing through resistance over time just overhead and working up to the $14.50 heavy resistance area. Tim 2:28PM EST, Aug 16, 2012 note: I saved this chart last night, but with CSCO's earnings up I thought it would make this stock gap-up.
The decline in GM shares from the peak in Feb over $27.50 to its low in July under $19 is over and the stock has found a base valuation at the $19.50-$20.00 level. I note the resistance at the $22 to $23 level and that is why I would expect to see several sharp reactions from that price level before surmounting that price. Note the downtrend channel has been...
The S&P has now separated from the 136 level where the market has now spent 14 weeks of time since the low last fall under the 108 level. What we can now assume is that 136 is the key support level and we should not see a violation of that key support level. I believe it is logical to see some kind of a retest of 136, but not a break. The market now has 13 more...
Please refer to previous publications of this chart for explanations: The circles represent an average range around the price at expiration (3rd Fri of every month). It is my observation that the market finds these levels important. We are currently rallying into a resistance level at 140.31+/- 0.50
Please fix the label as "LONG" instead of "NEUTRAL". Thank you. PBR has had a long bear market this year, falling from over $32 to under $18 along with a massive slide in the Brazilian stock market. PBR is a major element of the Brazilian stock market. The sellers have knocked down the price of PBR to bargain-basement levels, but it has been like a falling...
I am updating a chart I published here in the first quarter that outlined a price and time projection for a top in the then heady uptrend. It is a method of analysis that looks at frequency of time at a price. The more time at a given price means that there is more "value" at that price. The "conservative" projection lines up with the market nicely. I will...
OIH 36.98 last: 41 target, 34.50 stop. ============================= With a reversal in the price of crude oil there is finally an identifiable bottom in the price of oil service stocks. Look for an advance of 10% in the next 6 weeks. 2% declines can be a place to enter positions during the advance. Note the regression channel trend down has been violated. ...
7 year overlay of TLT (20 Year US Gov't Bond ETF) versus SPY (the US stock market). The "see-saw" in the markets provides solid, if unsteady, returns from moving funds into weakness and out of strength. This graph clearly depicts the jumpy nature of this relationship that over time and with discipline, ought to allow a disciplined investor thinking long term...
The pattern I had posted in early June is coming along nicely but without the directionality that I had in mind, but the trading profits from selling strength and buying back on weakness has been nice, to say the least. As I perused this chart I decided to highlight the 5-day range with a yellow box and point out how the market has broken out of that range twice...
A picture in this example is worth a thousand words. You can see the channeling that the AUD has done for the month of June on a 30-min bar chart. I normally do not post charts at this time interval but I felt it was worthwhile to do in this instance. Stop loss suggestion 0.9990 Target suggestion 0.9860 Regards, Tim 3:15PM EST, Jun 13, 2012 Wednesday
I thought I would publish one of my charts where I am just working out the details and highlighting various things. I truly enjoy how markets move and I am constantly fascinated by the way our minds adjust to information and the way we change our minds.
I view Amazon as close enough to a level to buy because the distance to "massive support" is roughly 12 pts away and the distance to "strong sellers is 22 points. This provides us with nearly a 2:1 ratio of upside potential to downside risk. By: Tim West, June 4, 2012 209.88 last, 9:41AM EST
Here's the trade: AAPL is a short sale - compared to a BUY in the SPY. For every dollar in a short sale of AAPL shares you buy an equivalent amount of SPY (S&P500). Risk: 3% Upside: 6% In other words, I believe that AAPL will underperform the stock market in the near term. Tim 1:06PM EST, Jun 1 2012
I find this interesting - intermarket analysis. I try to look at as many indicators as I can handle and then come to an overall assessment of the market's position. Cotton has its complexities, but sometimes a relationship just jumps out at you. For me, I see how Cotton is a leading indicator for the stock market. Note how it declined prior to the current...
Today's rally puts ABX up into the target zone. Despite the volatility against the position at the start of the trade, this is a decent trade overall. Cheers. Tim Jun 1, 2012 11:19AM EST
WHY CAN'T SILVER RALLY??? Statements: 1. No one has any money 2. People are buying something else 3. People have changed their beliefs Responses to statements: 1. Recessions do weaken "excess funds" to speculate on stocks and commodities. 2. People are buying T-Bonds instead. 3. People are buying the idea that DEFLATION is in the future instead of...
I decided yesterday to post this idea as a PAIRS trade against a long position in CAT, but IR was the inspiration for the trade in the first place. I'd like to suggest that this is the proper way to draw regression channels as it is the only way that I have ever drawn them because it makes logical sense to me. The logic is that you diagram "uptrends" separate...