MacroView_Research

As #OPEC Meets, #Crude May Feel Disappointed

NYMEX:CL1!   LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
6 months ago
Tomorrow, members of OPEC will meet in Vienna, and it is unlikely there will be any policy shifts. Despite the dire straits some OPEC members are in, such as Venezuela, the current crude production policy will likely remain until Iran and Russia agree to some sort of production resolution.

MacroView has been overly bearish since June 2014 but indicating that the one key dynamic factor in crude prices would be supply (same goes for Brent and OPEC). Essentially, West Texas Intermediate would continue to see woes until there were meaningful cutbacks in crude production, which finally began to filter through on a combination of record-low rig counts and bankruptcies (yes, bankruptcies are bullish ). Crude output levels in the U.S. are at levels last seen during the second-half of 2014.

West Texas Intermediate has been trading within the current supply range between $48/50 for the last 12 trading sessions, and price action is currently treating the current trend support on narrowing price action. If OPEC disappoints tomorrow, and break through trend would cause traders to seek out support near $42, while a confirmed breakout of the supply zone could trigger buying to $55.

The weekly chart picture for crude:
snapshot

OPEC's production has largely offset declines seen by U.S. shale producers, and members will continue to press on. Iran has said they look to achieve 2.2 Mbbl/day to compete with Saudi for market share; Iraq and Kuwait both look to increase their production meaningfully. Non-OPEC member Russia continues to keep oil             production at post-Soviet highs.

Side note: expect volatility in commodities currencies on headline risk. The Canadian dollar             has pulled back after gaining 18 percent on crude's rally, but it remains vulnerable.

snapshot

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6 months ago
Comment: UAE oil minister says he's "happy" with current oil markets and:

UAE OIL MIN. SAYS HASN'T HEARD ABOUT AN OPEC OUTPUT TARGET PLAN
UAE MIN. SAYS OPEC, OTHERS WOULD HAVE TO AGREE TO ANY FREEZE
UAE MIN. SAYS OPEC `CANNOT JUST UNILATERALLY DO A FREEZE'
UAE MIN. SAYS OIL MKT IS RECOVERING, STILL ROOM TO CORRECT MORE
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