US 30 Entering Bear Market?

DJ:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Chart says all. So many contributors with great ideas about what we might expect. Just my 2c. It never goes straight down but makes short squeeze traps along the way. The runup to 24k was a terrific squeeze, rejected at 0.50 Fibo- exactly. Be cautious, short the rallies, don't plunge as it swings wildly and can squeeze any day.

Remember- gaps tend to get filled! It's a 5th wave- might give us an M-shaped pattern with a second bounce from the 50% retrace level- expect unpredictable squeezes. GLTA!

As always, this isn't advice, just an idea; trade at your own risk!
Trade active: Certainly looks bullish but this thing changes like the wind. Let's see where it goes; trading just a hair above the 0.5 Fibo now. If it closes above $24120 would break above bottom of wave 1. A close above wave 1 low closing price $24450 would invalidate this EW model. Prior rallies have been rejected at 50d MA; is close.
Trade active: Trading very close to 0.50 Fibo from 3 September, still 200 pips below the 0.62 Fibo from 3 Dec. Buying SDOW now, partial position, to add if it gets higher. Let's see! Exhaustion gap up Wednesday morning. Need confirmation in daily Doji.
Trade active: Shooting star. See if we get a pinbar next.
Trade closed: stop reached: Price broke thru stop limits and moved above the Fibo, looks like a breakout moving higher to retest TL. See my latest post, target: 25040 before next rejection.
A key point on the EW count;

* Your primary wave 2 doesn't count as a ZZ, standard flat, running flat or an expanded flat

You'll need to re think that count
@donaldsaw, You're right! Doh- Thanks for commenting- keen observation!
@donaldsaw, I've researched this pattern; it is a flat inverted irregular Bear Market Correction pattern, an ABC in which C wave is lower than the A that preceeds it, thus the entire A-B-C structure does constitute a wave (2). Reference: John J murphy, Technical Analysis of Financial Markets, 1st Ed, 1999; chapter 13 Elliott Wave Theory; Fig 13.19, p. 329. For those that do not own a copy of this marvelous and comprehensive reference work, I strongly urge you to go to AMZN.Com and get one- thanks for commenting, your observation making us ll better traders!
Awesome chart. Thank you!
@Sapphira, Tyvm for kind comment. Futures overnight showed a number of signal forms to suggest imminent breakdown: exhaustion gap up, H&S formation on top, a steep slide off shoulder with a secondary reaction rally in early AM followed by a secondary panic in pre-market. Fascinating!
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