maikisch

Morning Update: Looking at the Bullish Perspective

Short
CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
It's hard to get excited about something you don't like. That's the best way to describe this pattern...I don't like it. But moving forward the below becomes my primary micro count in (black) as I believe it has earned the benefit of the doubt.

www.tradingview.com/...AXx-ES-Micro-2-2-23/

I have an alternate count in (purple). However, I'm tracking this final move higher as impulsive so all the target boxes are areas I expect price to enter for each remaining wave. I can only assume we're going to extend because as of right this structure only points to 4240-4268.50. So if we are going to extend, wave 3 is where we should start to see some of that occur.

I am watching closely to see if price behaves by hitting ALL the ideal areas. Failure to do so may signal we're coming up short. First test is we should get one more poke higher to complete wave v of 3 into the 4177.50-4188 area. Our minor wave iv may not be done so a trip down to 4020-4040 should not be a surprise. Our MACD indicators are starting to show overbought levels...so a longer drawn wave iv makes sense.

My purple count supposes we could top where I'm counting wave 3. We do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75. If we top in purple it is quite possible this entire move up will only be the a wave of larger B. That would certainly solve the time duration issue I have had. Key is to observe if price remains impulsive or if cracks start to emerge signaling we will not be hitting the standard retracement area for our larger b-wave this go around.

My goal is try to get my short position in a more delta neutral posture with a hedge of some sort. If I do anything to hedge, I'll update this post so if interested keep referring to this post to get the play by play.

Best to all,

Chris

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