DanV
Education

EURUSD – Is it doing an about turn for the worse? - Update

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
In my previous chart of EURUSD , you will find lots of details explaining why I am anticipating a new bearish cycle in which the wave 4 (in circle) was about completed and wave 5 (in circle) was about to commence. There are lots of additional charts in comment section to help validate longer term view. This chart is linked below for your reference.

We did not have the follow through to initial decline. Instead a new high was pasted last week. At present, I do not think that this has really changed much for the longer term. In the short term wave 4 was still in progress.

So this is a second attempt to identify possible completion of wave 4, which could now be in place or will be shortly. If correct then wave 5 will follow as anticipated.

In addition to details describe in the earlier chart referred to above, here is the summary of updated technical:
1. We have a trendline from July 2008 high, connection April 2011 high (but ignoring May 2014 as over throw) which comes in to proximity of current price that might mark wave 4 high.
2. We have an uptrend line on RSI from 2013 and August 2017 peak appear to suggest a hidden bearish divergence along with normal divergence with price making new high above August peak and RSI making lower high.
3. In addition to that, we have possible time symmetry shown on the chart – namely April 2011 High to March 2014 closing high measures 150 bars on weekly charts, which equates to approx 149 bars measured from March 2015 low to current high.
4. Fibonacci time relationship between Waves 1 – 3 and wave 4 is approx Fib ration of 1.3618 as shown in the chart.
5. Open Interest and Net Long by Large Speculators is even more extreme now than the one we noted at previous peak in August/September 2017, see chart below.

Short Entry: You can drop down to daily or 4 hour time frame to time short entry on confirmation using your normal method. Just keep in mind that it might can chop about before it gets going in anticipated decline.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps the me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
Comment: COT Data:

DXY -
Comment:
Comment: Draghi was able to turn Euro's longer term direction back in 2012 saying "whatever it takes" and it market a major low. In 2014 he said "Euro is too expensive or over valued" and it market Euro's top. What will he say now?
Comment: Need confirmation but so far the divergences on OBV and RSI together with the type of candle and associated volume so not look good. At least a correction is likley.
Comment: They say topping is a process. Well that could be the case with EURUSD. Unless we breakout strongly above 1.2550, the reversal could be close. Whilst we have make a spike high above 25th January spike on EURUSD, the March Futures contacts for DXY has not made new low since and last weeks retest of that low was on much lower volume than the one on 25th January as show in the snapshot - https://www.screencast.com/t/hulVrS6PF
Here is the updated chart of EURUSD on weekly time frame and break below 1.2250 could confirm that anticipated reversal -
The last three months is very difficult to analyze the EURUSD. For a long time he was in the corridor 1,1500 - 1,1300. I wrote an article about stochastic cycles. I hope that for many of you it will help in choosing the right side for the deal.
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Setting aside your technical analysis do you not think a zone of support exists around your 1.13821 area?
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DanV gremic
@gremic, Thanks for your question. There probably is as will be several more along the way. The chart published was not intended for identifying all the possible supprts and resistance along the way. However, if you have something specific in mind then please feel free to share your analysis here.
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Excellent Preparation & Analysis!
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Nice read DanV...I'm looking to sell the next bounce myself.
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DanV wstchse
@wstchse, That would make perfect sense. Thanks
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Every graph of stocks, assets or cryptos are following the JOES-fractal.
Check it out!
For the BTC:
according to my JOES-fractal we are not getting bullish. A small bull-trap coming this days.
After that down to 4K-5k region!
Check it out!
Reply
i am sure its eu going down now
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@japa, That is what is anticipated. Need a close below 1.2250 to confirm.
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Mario said "I dont care. Im gonna retire soon.".
Reply
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