GBP AUD - Daily move incoming [XII]

G'Day Traders and Analysts,

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, until the opportunity for a close reaches the profit taking zone. This will be activated as long, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers.

Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move.

Master Key for zones

• Red = Three Month
  
• Blue = Monthly
  
• Purple = weekly
  
• Orange = Daily
  

Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.

Currently experiencing a Drop Base Drop (DBD) Scenario upon the Weekly timeframe.
Price can offer a correction bullish move for Daily buyers, but a longer term move will require confirmation patterns (CP).

Note, as previously mentioned - using imbalances - the floor of monthly zone will now require a Break for a DBD or a Drop Base Rally - subject to the monthly zone holding - despite a significant retest.



Daily

• Lower timeframe, shows a Drop Base Rally (DBR)
  
• Price looks to be consolidating within a trading range between the two orange zones marked.
  
• Upper orange zone has had 3x tests, so this can be a nice long for a weekly corrective move as price can confirm the departure of the lower zone.
  
• Short - subject to the retest of the re-active move - this can offer a Daily DBD scenario - however, this will require a long term move of the monthly low to break. (Review Bearish scenario weekly - Below)
  

Bullish & Bearish confirms are marked on the Daily chart of whichever scenario presents itself, this will be traded upon a confirmation.

Awaiting confirmation on the weekly
Strong opportunity subject to CP upon a weekly zone.

Adding Hull Moving average for 50, 200 MA
Price is still closing below the 50 & 200 offering opportunities to slow.

Weekly Markup

• Clear departure on the weekly highlighting a Fresh level (FL) - zone will require a retest and this will initiate a strong supply zone.
  
• Price may not instantly revert to the FL as the strong departure can accumulate before the next distribution pattern is confirmed.
  
• Subject to weekly closes price can revert back to test lows of <1.72 subject to a shorter term base forming upon a daily level. Note, this also aligns with the November 29, 2018 candle of interest which 'pauses' the DBR formation in what can be playing out in this scenario.
  

Monthly with Original levels and fresh levels yet to be tested

• Clear departure on the weekly Monthly - (Monthly ray has been left in to represent the steepness of the curve.
  
• Price may not instantly revert to the Original level, as a trader, it's impossible to know the time limit, however the direction from a Departure will lead to an arrival using supply and demand in conjunction with a clear supply imbalance formation.
  
• The "clear two month drop" on the chart signifies the overall move was strong, whilst this does have an element of prediction, the reality is price moves in a downward right formation where an original and fresh level below the current imbalance whereby this monthly test may still be highly probable, expectations of a bullish case move is up to 1.82/1.83 before reverting down to 1.65 for a very strong reaction presenting a 2024 opportunity for a bullish move in favour of GBP.
  The monthly wicks, have left patterns forming with higher lows providing a strong basis.
  

Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Position and swing trades
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.

If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.

Thanks,
LVPA MMXXII