NASDAQ 100 CASH Index Weekly Path Forward till the US elections!
The clearest count I see from the March 2009 lows on the
NDQ
NASDAQ 100 CASH Index is that we are now forming an ending diagonal 5th final wave and the drop last week was just wave a of ii of this ending diagonal.
We are now in the midst of wave b of ii with another minor low drop coming once the current rally exhausts itself between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop in wave a of ii. This should fill part of the gap from last Monday.
The rise in wave i was a 3 wave abc with b being a triangle. I am seeing some stretched counts showing the rise from Dec 18 is a "B" wave of an expanded flat but the "B" high was way higher than the beginning of wave "A" for this to be a credible count.
I will say one thing as clear as I can: while Trump is running for re-election THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL A MARKET CRASH WILL BE ALLOWED by the Fed, the Admin and Wall Street giants.
The stakes of a possible Bernie Sanders Presidency are too high.
President Trump is known to be unorthodox and not to respect any independence of the Fed and politics. He will do whatever it takes to get the Fed to keep the markets afloat till at least Nov 3 and the Fed looks like it is about to oblige judging from Powell's statement on Friday afternoon and the rumored G7 call between Mnuchin, Powell and other G7 nations - tomorrow.
When push comes to shove Trump is not going to be shy about even threatening to fire Powell if he sees the danger of losing the election. Any of you who think this is an impossibility have not been paying attention to all the lines in the sand Trump so easily erases and crosses.
More importantly, for such a powerful, bubble-like and almost parabolic bull run in tech stocks since the March 2009 Financial Crisis lows, the ending is not going to come without seeing at least multiple divergences on the MACD on the long-term daily and Weekly charts. Right now MACD has been pushing higher with each high in the NASDAQ which is confirming the trend is very much intact and animal spirits still very powerful in this Bull run.
I have shown how MACD should look in the coming months for us to see an ending coming later this year.
Do not start daydreaming of a crash coming till a proper topping process is in place and in Indices with long and powerful bull run trends like the NASDAQ 100, the top will be A PROCESS that will take months and months with MACD diverging along the way. This is what happened in the 2000 Dotcom crash and in the Great Depression. No crash is going to happen of meaningful long-term significance while MACD keeps punching higher and higher. Just plot the NASDAQ on a log chart from 2009 lows and you will see the latest drop last week was peanuts and minor in the long-term perspective. On linear charts, it looks scarier than it is. This is merely a correction in the midst of a final ending diagonal wave.
The coming Fed intervention will result in a short-covering rally (rumors and hopes of which have been the reason for the rise since Friday) which will fall short of the recent all-time high and wave c of ii of the ending diagonal will begin in earnest. Wave c should be a devastating drop that will freak out everyone. But it too shall stop and wave iii of the ending diagonal will then begin in earnest to new all-time highs - as pictured above.
The sentiment at last Friday's low was some of the worst pessimistic in decades using many metrics including CNN Fear/ Greed index, Mclellan Oscillator, and many others. The bounce I predicted to start last Friday (see the last post) happened right on time and was very predictable. When everyone is already bearish and panicking to the extreme, there is only one way to go and that is UP.
NDQ
NASDAQ 100 CASH Index is that we are now forming an ending diagonal 5th final wave and the drop last week was just wave a of ii of this ending diagonal. We are now in the midst of wave b of ii with another minor low drop coming once the current rally exhausts itself between the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the drop in wave a of ii. This should fill part of the gap from last Monday.
The rise in wave i was a 3 wave abc with b being a triangle. I am seeing some stretched counts showing the rise from Dec 18 is a "B" wave of an expanded flat but the "B" high was way higher than the beginning of wave "A" for this to be a credible count.
I will say one thing as clear as I can: while Trump is running for re-election THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL A MARKET CRASH WILL BE ALLOWED by the Fed, the Admin and Wall Street giants.
The stakes of a possible Bernie Sanders Presidency are too high.
President Trump is known to be unorthodox and not to respect any independence of the Fed and politics. He will do whatever it takes to get the Fed to keep the markets afloat till at least Nov 3 and the Fed looks like it is about to oblige judging from Powell's statement on Friday afternoon and the rumored G7 call between Mnuchin, Powell and other G7 nations - tomorrow.
When push comes to shove Trump is not going to be shy about even threatening to fire Powell if he sees the danger of losing the election. Any of you who think this is an impossibility have not been paying attention to all the lines in the sand Trump so easily erases and crosses.
More importantly, for such a powerful, bubble-like and almost parabolic bull run in tech stocks since the March 2009 Financial Crisis lows, the ending is not going to come without seeing at least multiple divergences on the MACD on the long-term daily and Weekly charts. Right now MACD has been pushing higher with each high in the NASDAQ which is confirming the trend is very much intact and animal spirits still very powerful in this Bull run.
I have shown how MACD should look in the coming months for us to see an ending coming later this year.
Do not start daydreaming of a crash coming till a proper topping process is in place and in Indices with long and powerful bull run trends like the NASDAQ 100, the top will be A PROCESS that will take months and months with MACD diverging along the way. This is what happened in the 2000 Dotcom crash and in the Great Depression. No crash is going to happen of meaningful long-term significance while MACD keeps punching higher and higher. Just plot the NASDAQ on a log chart from 2009 lows and you will see the latest drop last week was peanuts and minor in the long-term perspective. On linear charts, it looks scarier than it is. This is merely a correction in the midst of a final ending diagonal wave.
The coming Fed intervention will result in a short-covering rally (rumors and hopes of which have been the reason for the rise since Friday) which will fall short of the recent all-time high and wave c of ii of the ending diagonal will begin in earnest. Wave c should be a devastating drop that will freak out everyone. But it too shall stop and wave iii of the ending diagonal will then begin in earnest to new all-time highs - as pictured above.
The sentiment at last Friday's low was some of the worst pessimistic in decades using many metrics including CNN Fear/ Greed index, Mclellan Oscillator, and many others. The bounce I predicted to start last Friday (see the last post) happened right on time and was very predictable. When everyone is already bearish and panicking to the extreme, there is only one way to go and that is UP.
