SPX: Strength-adjusting reveals impending dump

Chart of SPX price accounting for USD strength and appreciation/inflation (not sure which term is technically correct). Reveals completed massive HS pattern in conjunction with infamous Bart pattern - ups and down akin to Bart Simpson’s haircut that precede a dump.

This corroborates my previous SPX bearish idea, which is based on a formula I developed for approximating SPX Bull and Bear markets since circa 1986.
Comment: Update for EW fans.
Comment: In a Fib channel.
Yes I agree that it can rise a bit more. Don’t think we’ll break the ATH. I suspect it’s rising as the ending trap typical of the Bart pattern.
Crypt1c_one Teklologist
@Teklologist, fair enough. There is also a possibilty that it is a expanding triangle top so keep that in mind if it breaks ATH. Level im looking to short is between 2935 and 3014. Good luck
Teklologist Crypt1c_one
@Crypt1c_one, considered that but doesn’t it look more like a diamond top?
Crypt1c_one Teklologist
@Teklologist, yes however key fib levels have been broken the next fib level is 2935 which is ATH which would mean it is not a diamond top as you would have a double top. This is why i am unsure atm as to what will happen
+1 Reply
Teklologist Crypt1c_one
@Crypt1c_one, good point will have to check that out.
Teklologist Crypt1c_one
@Crypt1c_one, this is from the other day. Haven’t checked fibs or whether price breached the blue dotted line.
Teklologist Crypt1c_one
@Crypt1c_one, one last thing: chart from Oct 2018 where I attempted EW count. Based on count and fibs of below chart it’s possible Spx Wave 4 retracement dipped low enough for Wave 5. However, looks more like Spx is in a Wave B of Wave 4’s ABC downward. Were Wave 4 completed, I see Spx having potential for going much higher than 3014. This would be bad news for me since I recently went short.
Crypt1c_one Teklologist
@Teklologist, its more likely that the market will have some sort of fall/correction however no one can predict with 100% accuracy what will happen or when it will happen in the future so you need to look at your current position and how much you have shorted and determine if its worth the risk of losing that money? Elliot wave helps however you cant rely on it as it is only a guide to help understand what direction the market is heading in. From the technical aspect i dont see the market moving above 3014 as we have a massive divergence on macd,rsi, roc, mfi on the daily chart and the market has gone 10 years without a recession plus the last 10 years we have had lower volume every year add to that the 20% fall from ATH with large volume in dec 2018. I would recommend tight stop losses for any short positions
Teklologist Crypt1c_one
@Crypt1c_one, agreed. I’ll see how tomorrow goes. Historically it seems things start to topple after tax day, so I am a bit pre-emotive and you’re right about the extreme risk of an upwards move. It would devour me.
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