Recission confirmed

I think one of the most asked questions right now is how things will continue after this week's bear market rally.
There are always two things to keep in mind:
1. The environment determines the market &
2. The market is pricing in news.

As I'm not a fan of writing doctoral papers on Trading View, I'll summarize the main points for an easy overview.

On a fundamental basis, the market faces several hurdles. Among them are:
- Shortages
- rising inflation data
- a confirmed recession in the US
- an internationally tense political environment

Despite the fact that the market should have priced in most of it already, there are still some fiscal policy factors weighing heavily on monetary conditions.
In my view, the following points that should be included in the market by now:
- Ukraine-Russia war
- high inflation data
- China lockdown
- (partly) international bottlenecks
- the rate hikes implemented so far

The points I think are not priced in yet:
- Taiwan-China tensions/escalation
- higher inflation data
- worse labor market data
- Economic consequences of the China lockdown
- a confirmed recession in the US economy
- International bottlenecks that affect the economy in the long term
- Upcoming rate hikes and
- Rate hikes in a recession
- High energy prices and a coming oil/energy crisis

So you can see that the market environment is still full of tension.
What many investors and speculators don't know, but are key performers, are the interest rate hikes.
According to André Kostolany, the money that flows into the market through inflation is taken out again through interest rate hikes. Because the market is, according to Kostolany, the first beneficiary of capital inflows from inflation.
The interest therefore takes what was given.
Especially since it should be noted this time that the economic environment has changed and interest rates have never been raised so quickly.
So it can be dangerous.

In order not to go beyond the scope of this, I will quickly go over a few technical chart points that could confirm that the downward trend is advancing:
- the SPX is still in a downtrend (even at the upper resistance level)
- lately we've had a typical bear market rally (again) and
- You could structurally assume an Ellioth wave that your fix already had/is already completing (I'm not a wave analyst, but with a bit of fanaticism you could follow the pattern here)

I would be interested to know what you think of it and whether I might have forgotten some criteria?

Write it in the comments!