Hey Guys, So last trading idea played out perfectly and we have had the rally expected and the first point of major resistance has no been reached. The US100 has rallied extremely hard to flush out all the Puts on the market expiring Friday and had pushed the RSI on the hourly to major overbought readings. This reading and seeing we are at a strong resistance (past price action, 50 MA, Fib level) I see us sell of to at least cool off the overbought signals. The VIX is also giving us a clue with it pulling back to the trend line set out last throughout the last few rallies (chart Below) . My first target is the 13900 level as we have the Fib level with previous price action showing resistance and support here with it being so close to a solid number of 14000 if it broke here then that would be a major sign the market sell of continues. I dont know if that will happen though and could also seeing us just test the 13900 before bouncing higher and falling off later in the year to line up with seasonality. Will have to see closer to the target.
Fundamentally, with the FED still tightening and even keeping the door open to raising rates faster then .25% each meeting and running off their balance sheet more pain is to come. Reinforcing this will be the next few month Inflation Data, these should be quite high giving the commodity boom and now China COVID outbreak again stressing supply chains and adding cost.
Fundamentally, with the FED still tightening and even keeping the door open to raising rates faster then .25% each meeting and running off their balance sheet more pain is to come. Reinforcing this will be the next few month Inflation Data, these should be quite high giving the commodity boom and now China COVID outbreak again stressing supply chains and adding cost.
