Global Futures Extend Friday's Losses, Vix up 17%
Here we go, folks! After an ugly opex on Friday which saw 30% of SPY, QQQ, IWM, and SPX options expire, leading to heavy selling across the board, futures are extending losses on Monday morning. As of 9AM, the S&P is down -1.21% to 4,266.12, the Dow is down -1.44% to 34,067, the Nasdaq is down -0.95% to 14,532, and the Russell is down -2.22% to 2,113.
European and Asian markets are also taking it on the chin with the Dax down -2.62%, the CAC40 down -2.44%, the FTSE 100 down -2.13%, the Nikkei 225 down -1.28%, and the CSI 300 down -0.39%. It doesn't look like anyone can hide from the risk off theme today.
As you can imagine, risk protection is in high demand with the Vix up 16.86% to 21.56. We're back at the 200DMA around 22, and we look poised to test trendline resistance around 24 as early as today on a break above the 200MA. Based on recent Vix price action after seeing solid support at the multi-year ascending trendline (around 15), we may be looking at the beginning of a larger repricing of risk off the back of higher than expected COVID infection rates last week, as well as growing inflation fears. Here's hoping logic works it's way back into the market going forward (finally).
The US10Y yield is puking to 1.225% - we just lost the 200DMA at 1.275% and we're racing toward the 100MA (w), where the 50MA (w) is about to converge, around 1.20%. We should get support here, however, investors seem to be flocking into bonds as a safe haven against downside. The more shaky equity markets become, the more we may see yields crash, at least initially.
Bitcoin is back at 30k support, but we're down over -3% on the day, and may be about to lose support, taking us toward 20k, which I believe is the 100MA (w). As risk is repriced, of course we'll see crypto sell off. It's only a matter of time before debt starts to pull flows away from assets, and those with the highest beta, and weakest value proposition, will be hit the hardest.
Finally, the dollar (DXY) is retesting wedge resistance again for the 5th time in a month. We're sitting at 92.88 and we're fast approaching the March 2021 high's around 93.30 opening the gates to the upper band of the wedge around 95-96. Things are getting interesting so stay tuned for our live analysis at 9:30AM.
European and Asian markets are also taking it on the chin with the Dax down -2.62%, the CAC40 down -2.44%, the FTSE 100 down -2.13%, the Nikkei 225 down -1.28%, and the CSI 300 down -0.39%. It doesn't look like anyone can hide from the risk off theme today.
As you can imagine, risk protection is in high demand with the Vix up 16.86% to 21.56. We're back at the 200DMA around 22, and we look poised to test trendline resistance around 24 as early as today on a break above the 200MA. Based on recent Vix price action after seeing solid support at the multi-year ascending trendline (around 15), we may be looking at the beginning of a larger repricing of risk off the back of higher than expected COVID infection rates last week, as well as growing inflation fears. Here's hoping logic works it's way back into the market going forward (finally).
The US10Y yield is puking to 1.225% - we just lost the 200DMA at 1.275% and we're racing toward the 100MA (w), where the 50MA (w) is about to converge, around 1.20%. We should get support here, however, investors seem to be flocking into bonds as a safe haven against downside. The more shaky equity markets become, the more we may see yields crash, at least initially.
Bitcoin is back at 30k support, but we're down over -3% on the day, and may be about to lose support, taking us toward 20k, which I believe is the 100MA (w). As risk is repriced, of course we'll see crypto sell off. It's only a matter of time before debt starts to pull flows away from assets, and those with the highest beta, and weakest value proposition, will be hit the hardest.
Finally, the dollar (DXY) is retesting wedge resistance again for the 5th time in a month. We're sitting at 92.88 and we're fast approaching the March 2021 high's around 93.30 opening the gates to the upper band of the wedge around 95-96. Things are getting interesting so stay tuned for our live analysis at 9:30AM.
