OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
HEADER - I have much, much more conviction now.

SUMMARY - I've covered the put hedges (paired of a straddle yesterday) this morning. 55% of trade funds in with 45% left for tomorrow.

IRL RATIO/BAR - 3/4, 45-min bar, zoom in at 11-min, 22-min and zoom out at 90-min, 3H, 6H, 12H, D, 2D, 4D, 8D.

DIRECTIONS - Upload IRL from my scripts page. You have to click my emblum (MQP/US flag) and it will take you to my avatar page. Click on scripts, IRL , add to your favorites menu, and then you can add it to your chart. Click settings icon, change ratio to stated ratio in title. For this chart, DX / DY ratio is 3/4 (same as default?, I think), if not, change it to 3/4). Let me say that IRL IS NOT HARD TO USE AT ALL. Try it, you just might like it. Even though directions for IRL are only 60% completed (they are in the comments), that's more than enough for you to apply it usefully. Please read directions for help before asking for details. In my charts, I try to match extension regression lines to its correct colors along with D# labels. When I don't have time for that and colors don't match, D+# LABELS ALWAYS TAKE PRECEDENT. The whole point of IRL is to forecast regression lines with respect to other regression lines. Then reverse engineer for price.

D-LABELS - These are the periods for this chart.

D+6 -- 128 DAYS
D+7 -- 64 DAYS
D+8 -- 32 DAYS
D+9 -- 16 DAYS
D+10 -- 8 DAYS

DETAILS - I have a lot to post for this, so it will take me while. Come back to see them later.
Comment: 1. first, get IRL loaded to your indicators, adjust dx/dy settings to 3/4 (if not already), set to 45-min bar
2. you should get this chart above
3. odds of this route for D+10 - and there fore price following the boxes up - are 62% vs entire field
Comment: 4. yesterday, the was point where 1790, was pushing 45%, raising odds of 1765 to 33%
5. that danger is not entirely gone, but odds strongly favor rally for next 12 trading days
6. the regression picture is saying that the last 2 hours have been decisive
7. when I said 62% vs field (this is for new all time high)
8. if target is 2000, odds of breaking that in 12 trading days is better than 80%
Comment: 9. TYPO!!!!!! THE RATIO IS 1/1
Comment: 10. AGAIN, THE RATIO SHOULD BE 1/1, NOT 3/4
Comment: 11. for this chart (and it changes with every example), 3/4 Is for 15-min, 30-min, 1H, 2H, 4H, and 8H bars
12. BUT WILL NOT WORK FOR 16H BARS... (when I list bars sizes, I've checked them)
Comment: 13. consider the chart below:
Comment: 14. here is next one
Comment: 15. this is from the work-up in post 20A
16. I'm out of time now, will continue from here later
Comment: 17. in post 20A, I noted that the move I"m looking for is at point A NOT POINT B
18 This is because the "source" of the swing up is the orange wave and its relationship to the light gray wave in 12H vs.3-min contrast right above
Comment: 19. if you turn off irl, you would think that the move is comparable to point B
20. this is because the intermediate waves form the shape of the move
21. so in that sense, the intermediate waves look more like point B
22. averaging out volatility vs time relationships between this example and other examples...
23. give us a 290-300 point move in 9 and a half days, add 25% for shenanigans which makes that 12 days not counting today
24. so end of the move should be done by 5/27
25. at the end of all such moves is a minimum 25% retrace immediately after the top
26. in our circumstances, that would mean once we get to 2125, we should expect a hard drop to 2050 immediately within 48 hours
Comment: 27. there's a 1/3 (maybe 2/5) chance that high AND RETRACE WOULD COMPLETE BY 5/27
Comment: 27. all that said, the move will not impress until 5/16 and later (next Monday)
28. it will have a spike sometime in the next 36 hours and then likely form a pendant or a triangle like this:
Comment: 29. that makes me think that THE FIRST 2 BOXES ARE 36 HOURS EARLY
30. the rest are fine
Comment: 30. so on 1/1 setting, 45-min bar, D+10 is red
31. D+10 (sometimes, I just write D10) is 8-day, so D+11 is 4-day and D+12 is 2-day
32. on 45-min bar D+11 is blue
33. on 22-min bar D+12 is blue, D+11 is red, and, D+10 is dark gray
34. I bring that up because if you watch on 22-min bar, you will see how the waves behave when OTHER WAVES ARE IN POSITION
Comment: 35. there's one more issue before we commit it all
36. tomorrow 8:30 AM ET is PPI release
37. today was CPI, obviously PPI is the signal for everyone else to buy
38. what the regressions say is that that information is already out there
39. the setup is in place for this move requiring only that last trigger
40. good luck with this one, it should be easier on heart than January-March rally
41. that one took 6-7 weeks with SERIOUS 2-WAY vol to go 1780-2070 (290 pts)
42. we won't get that much 2-WAY vol this time because of the time constraint
43. since it only has 2 weeks and change, it's mostly a straight line up, with the move from 1980 to 2125 being at the last 36 hours of the run literally straight up
44. this means that about 40-45% of the entire move is at the very end
Comment: 45. this does NOT MEAN that we will get the same move down to late August (point B in 3-min chart)
46. it will down to late august but how much and how far depends on what the high 4 weeks after this high will be
47. meaning after late May high, it should move down and put in another top in mid to late June, we will have to see then
Comment: 48. good luck with this one, if anything, hope you make serious money on this info
49. once we pass PPI, I won't make any more posts, and will only comment occasionally here
Comment: 12:18 PM ET

1. at this point, price intends to take out 1870, maybe '75 OVERNIGHT
2. HOWEVER, PPI from here looks like a checkdown
3. BTW, this is NOT A DAY TRADE, this is a 3-week trade
4. and Friday 5/13 should close near tonight's high with the breakout coming at...
5. early morning ET of Monday 5/16
Comment: 6. trailing stop now 1835, I will raise this end of Friday
Comment: 12:43 PM ET

1. maybe down to 1840 before 1870
2. next 24 hours is particularly difficult to map bc so many combinations of zig zag
Comment: 3. it could also do 1865 first, then 1840s, maybe '43, then 1870s,
4. nothing meaningful until 10 AM tomorrow
Comment: 9.55 PM ET WED NIGHT

1. I think the next move is straight to 1900+
2. by Sunday night
3. I want to say Friday NY close, but that can't be right, RIGHT?... no way
Comment: 10:19 PM ET WED

1. honestly that's only a 45 dollar move in 2 days if it's Friday,
2. not a big deal
3. and there's a setup for it
4. speaking of setups, let's get this out of the way:
5. there is a "geopolitical" event driven path to 2140 by 5/19 or 5/20
6. this is not unrealistic, it is a sober assessment given the setup
Comment: 11:18 PM ET WED

1. it's 1855 and change, I'm not staying up us price should:
2. keep going up for a few more hours before going sideways to PPI release
3. odds of 1971.5 moderate
4. odds of 1966 very high
Comment: 9:45 AM ET THURSDAY -- FOR THE CHART ABOVE (notes in a sec)
Comment: NOTES -
1. first, I took my position down to 30% at 1847 after PPI
2. the red box in the chart above is where price failed to run to 1865-1870
3. the dotted bold black line is what the bold black line would have done
4. the rest of the lines are various regressions sets and they say that,
5. sideways for the remainder of the blue box, or until sunday night
6. the weakest remaining time limit is the black box, or until 2 am tomorrow
7. we should be at 1958 again on Friday through Sunday before midnight
8. and be at the orange box on Monday
9. odds of this have not moved
10. odds of a lower low next 18 hours is 55% and climbing
Comment: 3.30 PM ET

Covered 1835
Shorted 1830
Expecting 1790
Maybe 1780 after that in 10 to 12 hours out
Comment: 12:50 AM ET FRI

1. looks like bear are done with 1810 spike
2. I am partially long again
Comment: 2:05 AM ET

3. just not enough conviction
4. let's wait this out
Comment: 4:58 AM ET FRIDAY, 1822

5. looks like it wants 1793, maybe a bit lower right around New York open
Comment: 9:33 AM ET MARKET OPEN 1804.XX

1. I dont think its done.
2. I think its got quite a bit more to floor today, but for sure today
3. it could hit 1775 or less
Comment: 11:08

1. I posted some notes that didn't get posted... strange.
2. nice spike from 1799, needs to break 1818 again and head to 1828 and...
3. close near the daily high
4. if it turns and drift to 1800, hello 1793, 1777, and 1760s all possible after that
5. the problem with going a lot lower is it changes the next rally's ceiling and the following CORRECTION AFTER THAT RALLY
6. which means it puts the entire "gold bull market thesis" in question again, all the way until December
7. so today's price action is super important for intermediate prices AND long term prices as well
8. this is where the fundamental meets the technical
9. Powell's recent interview (Market Place Radio, Ryssdal) where he was asked to state what was in my mind in five words or less...
11. which means it's out of control
12. which implies an even more aggressive FED policy coming...
13. sigh....
Comment: 12:14 PM It's do or die

1. 1808 defended just in time
2. 5 hours to go, need a solid close 1828-ish
Comment: 8.24 PM ET FRIDAY.

1. I have conviction, but it's all that I have.
2. Meaning I have no technical evidence of a low in.
3. I will post a chart b4 Sunday open of the coming spike up cycles.
4. But odds don't favor them.
5. All I have are many patterns that all averages out to 2 to 5 weeks for NEW ATH
6. They cannot in themselves say when the bottom is.
7. If we consider all the proportional trends, it's getting late for the swing up which
8. ... is raising odds daily past Monday of going down and then no where for 7 months.
Comment: Clarify: 8. ... which is raising odds of down-and-nowhere scenario everyday starting with Monday (if we don't spike up significantly)

1. this is the route suggested by intermediate waves
2. 1830 Monday in AM time, 1850 Monday overnight to Tuesday, and 1910 Tuesday night to Wednesday
3. immediate momentum is still down for until midnight
4. Monday and Tuesday decides one of 3 routes that price can take
5. the chart at the top is still the favored of the 3
6. let's just see what happens for 36 hours and I'll make another chart
Comment: Here is second and final draft of this move, we will continue from there: