GBPUSD - Bulls Full Steam Ahead!Exceptional delivery to the upside this week with GBPUSD disregarding the weekly SIBI outlined @ 1.28340 - 1.27149 as a form or resistance.
GBPUSD failed to tag the lower portion of the inverted BISI @ 1.29452 - 1.31100 indicating the possibility of a short term retracement for this week.
I am well aware that GBPUSD is presenting more bullish signatures than bearish at this current time but it's the manipulation in price action that i try to spot and take advantage of.
With that being said, I would ideally like the lows to be booked this week by Wednesday latest before seeing an expansion higher
Candlestick Analysis
YM (March 2025) - Pay Close Attention To Dow JonesWhen comparing the three pairs; YM, NQ and ES, it is evident that the weekly lows has still not been made, indicating the weakness bears have to push price lower.
The mean threshold of the 6th Jan 2025 has been respected, indicating the potential for a short term retracement on the lower time frames back up into 43409 - 43024 weekly previous bullish order block.
The most important days to study is Sunday to Wednesday.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - Aiming For Low Hanging FruitsAs we have seen a recent delivery through a higher timeframe Sellside liquidity pool @ 20248.75 as well as tagging the weekly bullish order block @ 20011.25 I am not really seeing any signatures on this timeframe to suggest that Nasdaq is bullish at the moment.
However, on the lower timeframes, there is a potential for Nasdaq to attack premium PD arrays before reversing and continuing it's bearish trend.
I want to see the highs for the week created by Wednesday latest.
Sunday gap opening will determine the likelihood of this bias delivering
ES (March 2025) - Open Interest @ $2.1MWhen aiming for low hanging fruits, it is imperative to understand the boundaries that price cannot go to within a certain time period if the bias is going to play out.
Ideally, I would want to see Monday to Wednesday's price action to book the highs of the week before declining through the weekly BISI FVG @ 5797.75 - 5752.
Sunday gap opening will determine the likelihood of this bias delivering
Dollar Index - We Are Seeing Heaviness To The DownsideIt is important to note that although we have recently seen huge decline in the dollar, there is still a possibility for a minor relief rally into the monthly BISI which is now a inverted FVG @ 104.636 - 104.420 which could seek out small movements to the downside for GBPUSD and EURUSD.
Fully aware that dollar can continue to present risk on conditions, taking out 103.373 lows and making its way into the longer term monthly bias of the 101.917 - 103.373 FVG.
ZB1! - Perfection With SIBI RejectionThis weeks delivery has efficiently delivered into a PD array mentioned previous weeks back.
Although bullish, the goal was not to predict the weeks close, just anticipate the draw on liquidity.
Aiming for low hanging fruits, I am looking at the 115.18 weekly EQ as a possible draw going into next week.
US10Y - You Can Make Money And Be WrongLast weeks bias was bearish and although we have closed out bullish this week, the bearish PD array @ 4.126% - 4.104% which I was expecting has materialised.
This goes to show that you don't have to predict the weekly close. It's the draw on liquidity that is important.
Intraday Update: Indices may be ready for the SMT reversal👀 Clearly we have a bullish reversal from the clearing of a previous daily imbalance range. Of course we expect NAS to get a head start on achieving it's buyside targets and that's just what we get on today.
🧼 Clean buyside ideas happening although we are technically still bearish on the daily until we get a higher close over a previous daily block. This is fine, it just means we will still see heavy bearish flow above lower time frame highs until then no sweat!
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Gold seems to have found support for the week✈️ As we see the bullish imbalances print on the hourly chart, we will attempt to use these as support for higher targeting 🎯 Clear targets right above the range and clear support levels make for great long opportunities.
My bias is still remaining bearish for the moment as you all know we only change bias when we get a close to the other side. We have yet to have the opportunity to close bullish on the daily (our bias time frame), so we play our targets close since these bullish targets are technically counter trend.
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What to do after you missed a big price move (Example: EUR/USD)There was a big fast move in EUR/USD last week.
The ‘European currencies’ did especially well versus the US dollar, including GBP/USD and USD/CHF as well as the ‘Skandies’ SEK/USD and NOK/USD.
If you rode the move, then job done. If you did ride the move up, you might have taken full profits already - or maybe you are leaving a little bit of the position open to ride any continuation of the move.
But, what to do if you missed it completely?
Explosive moves in the market usually mean traders who were on the ‘losing’ side step out for a while, having lost confidence in their view. For example if you were bearish and the market makes a significant move higher - you’re probably going to be a lot less confident in your bearish view - but perhaps also not ready to take an opposite bullish view. The loss of sellers in the market can see the up-move continue with minimal pullback.
This might suggest buying any small dips to ride the next leg higher, and emotionally it would offer some salvation to capture the second leg of the move even if you missed the first leg. However, what you are doing here is ‘chasing the market’.
One trouble is that after a big move in the market, there is no definitive place to put your stop loss, except at the beginning of the move - which is now far away. That's a bad risk: reward.
It is tempting to place a closer (more manageable) stop loss under lower timeframe levels of support - but then you find yourself trading an unknown strategy that requires different rules to follow because it is based on a lower timeframe.
And indeed, after a sharp move in the market - there is still a chance for a sharp pullback to match. Why? Because buyers quickly take profits on their unexpected quick gains, which will create selling pressure into minimal support - because the next support level is far away.
A sharp pullback would mean an opportunity to buy into the uptrend at a lower level, closer to the previous support. But then the flipside of the sharp pullback is that it raises questions over the sustainability of the initial move.
Probably the biggest takeaway here is not to think about this ‘explosive’ move in isolation.
Instead of forcing a trade, consider:
1. Waiting for the right setup in the same market. If your strategy is based on structured breakouts, wait for the next clean consolidation or pattern before re-engaging. A big move often leads to a new setup—but forcing a trade in the middle of a volatile move isn’t a strategy, it’s FOMO.
2. Looking at uncorrelated markets. Just because EUR/USD already made a big move doesn’t mean you have to trade it now. If you want to be in at the start of a move, shift focus to another market that hasn’t yet made its move.
3. Sticking to your edge. If your strategy works over hundreds of trades, don’t abandon it just because one market moved without you. The next opportunity will come—if not in this market, then in another.
Again, the best trades don’t come from reacting to what already happened, but from positioning for what’s about to happen. If you missed the move, accept it, reset, and wait for the next high-quality setup—whether in the same market or somewhere else.
AUD vs DXY: Analysis of Both ChartsWE can see a clean bearish intent on DXY right now so we may be able to get a good long going against the DXY rn 🔑
If we stick to our closes being our guiding light, we will await the close to get our entry after if this bulls take a fib correction into buyside 🎯
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Full Market post NFP Review: Pure Consolidation as expectedEverything seems to be at an inflection point with currencies taking the reigns for profitability 💪🏽 EU/GU are inversing the dollar really well as always with that strong direct correlation. This is why we at Hollywoood Trades believe in market diversity. It is good to understand what should happen and what will be the result of an out of sync indices and metal market vs. the currency direct correlation pairs.
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The Dollar's Demise May Not Be Over Just YetThe US dollar index is on track for its worst week in nearly two and a half years. It is also nearly 6% off from the January high, which is similar in depth to the two previous selloffs seen in 2023 and 2024. Yet I do not think we've seen the low just yet, even if there is evidence of a potential bounce on the daily chart.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com