Hang Seng heaviness opens door to downside flush Hang Seng futures look heavy. Friday’s bearish engulfing candle has been followed by two consecutive declines, leaving the price teetering just above horizontal support at 20280.
With RSI (14) and MACD providing bearish signals on momentum, the inclination is to sell rallies in the near-term. It may also see a potential break of 20280 stick where so many other attempts have failed recently.
If we were to see futures break (and preferably close) below 20280, you could sell with a stop above the level for protection. The May 20 high of 19772 would be the initial trade target, especially with the 50-day moving average located just below.
If that level were to be broken, it opens the door to a potential deeper flush to 18500 with only minor support at 18945 located in between.
Good luck!
DS
Candlestick Analysis
EDUCATION: Simplified Candlestick Psychology (Part 2)In the world of trading, candlesticks are more than just visual representations of price movements—they're windows into the psychology of the market. Every candlestick tells a story, and if you can learn to read it properly, you can understand the underlying emotions of buyers and sellers. Think of it like reading a book, where every candle is a chapter that contributes to the bigger narrative.
In the previous video, we went over the anatomy of a candlestick and this time we dive into the psychology behind the Open, High, Low, and Close (OHLC) values on the chart. This way, you can read the market like you would a good book—predicting what might happen next based on what you've already learned.
Anatomy of a Candlestick
Before we dig into the psychology, let’s first look at the anatomy of a candlestick. A standard candlestick consists of four key components: the Open, High, Low, and Close (OHLC). These are the foundation for interpreting market sentiment.
Open: This is where the price started during that specific time period.
Close: This is where the price ended at the close of that period.
High: This is the highest point the price reached during that time frame.
Low: This is the lowest point the price reached.
The body of the candle is the difference between the Open and Close. The wicks (or shadows) represent the range from the Low to the High. The bigger the body, the stronger the move in that direction. The longer the wicks, the more indecision and struggle between buyers and sellers.
The Psychology Behind the OHLC
Now, let’s break down the psychology behind each component of a candlestick. Every candle is a snapshot of the market’s emotion, so understanding the story behind each piece can help you predict future moves.
The Open: The Open represents the first battle of the trading session. It shows where the price starts, and it often sets the tone for the rest of the candle. If the market opens higher than the previous candle’s close, it suggests bullish sentiment, while opening lower indicates a bearish sentiment. But don't just focus on the open; its relationship with the close is just as important.
The Close: The Close is where the real battle is won or lost. It’s the final decision of the market—did the buyers or sellers win the battle? A close near the high of the candle suggests strong bullish sentiment, while a close near the low indicates bearish sentiment. A close near the open suggests indecision or equilibrium in the market. Traders often view the close as the most important part of a candlestick because it shows the prevailing market sentiment.
The High and Low: These two points tell us about the price extremes during the trading period. A long upper wick suggests that the bulls tried to push the price higher but were met with strong selling pressure. A long lower wick shows that the bears pushed the price lower, but the buyers fought back to reclaim some of the losses. A candle with small wicks indicates that the market didn’t have much fluctuation, and the momentum was steady in one direction.
The Body: The body of the candlestick is the most visual part, showing the range between the Open and Close. A large body indicates strong momentum and confidence in one direction. A small body, on the other hand, indicates indecision, where neither side has been able to dominate the market.
Putting it All Together
Now that we understand the anatomy and psychology behind the OHLC, it’s time to combine the elements and read the story.
For example:
Bullish Candlestick: If a candlestick has a long body with a close near the high and short wicks, it indicates that buyers were in control, and they finished strong.
Bearish Candlestick: Conversely, a candlestick with a long body, close near the low, and short wicks shows that sellers were in control.
Indecision: A candle with a small body and long wicks on both sides indicates indecision or a battle between buyers and sellers. The market isn’t sure where it wants to go yet.
Candlesticks, when grouped together, create patterns that help us predict future price movements. For instance, a series of bullish candles could indicate strong upward momentum, while a few indecisive candles in a row might suggest a potential reversal or consolidation.
Practical Takeaways
Watch the Close: The close is your primary indicator of sentiment. A close at or near the high (for bullish candles) or low (for bearish candles) can give you confidence in a trade.
Long Wicks Mean Rejection: Wicks can show where the price was rejected, which helps identify areas of support and resistance.
Don't Ignore Small Bodies: Small bodies with long wicks are signals of indecision. Don’t be too eager to jump into trades after such candles without further confirmation.
Reading candles like a book isn’t just about recognizing patterns—it's about understanding the market's emotions and sentiment. Every candlestick is a snapshot of the battle between buyers and sellers, and by learning to read these battles, you can understand the market's story and predict what might happen next. How do you use candlesticks in your trading? Are there certain patterns or setups that you rely on? Share your thoughts below—I’d love to hear how you read the story in the charts!
EDUCATION: Simplified Candlestick Psychology (Part 1)As traders, understanding candlestick patterns is fundamental to decoding market behavior. But beyond the pattern itself, there’s a deeper story being told with every candle. Just like words form a story in a book, the Open, High, Low, and Close (OHLC) of a candlestick reveals the psychological battle between buyers and sellers at a given moment in time. In this video, we’re going to break down how to read candles like a book and uncover the psychology behind each price action move.
The Anatomy of a Candlestick
Before we dive into the psychology of candles, let's refresh on the basic anatomy of a candlestick:
Open (O): The opening price of the candle, where the price starts within the time period.
High (H): The highest price reached during the candle’s time frame.
Low (L): The lowest price reached during the candle’s time frame.
Close (C): The final price when the candle closes at the end of its time frame.
Each candlestick provides valuable information about the price action during that specific time period. But what’s even more important is the psychological narrative it tells.
The Psychology Behind the OHLC
Understanding the psychology behind the Open, High, Low, and Close will give you insight into the market’s behavior and sentiment. Here’s a breakdown of what each component reveals:
The Open (O): The start of the battle. The opening price represents the market's starting point. Buyers and sellers have already made their decisions before the candle even begins, and the open shows where the price begins to unfold. If the open is near the low of the day, it indicates a bearish sentiment, while an open near the high could show bullish strength.
The High (H): The peak of the conflict. The high of the candle represents the furthest point reached by either the bulls or the bears. When the price reaches a new high, it signifies that the buyers are in control and pushing the price up. Conversely, if the high is lower than the previous candle's high, it suggests that sellers are starting to assert their influence.
The Low (L): The valley of indecision. The low of the candle is where the price falls before either the bulls or bears regroup. A low that is lower than the previous low indicates that the sellers are pushing the price downward. A higher low, on the other hand, suggests that the bulls are holding the line and potentially setting up for a rebound.
The Close (C): The conclusion of the battle. The close is the most important price point of the candlestick, as it represents where the battle between buyers and sellers has ended. The relationship between the open and close tells you who won the fight. If the close is higher than the open, buyers have won the battle. If the close is lower than the open, sellers have gained control.
Reading Candles Like a Book
When you look at a candlestick, think of it like reading a short sentence in a book. Each candle tells a small part of the market’s ongoing story, and together they form the narrative of price movement. Here's how to read the story:
Bullish Candles (Close > Open): When a candle closes higher than it opened, it tells the story of a market that was dominated by buyers. The longer the body, the stronger the buying pressure. A large body with a small wick suggests buyers were in full control with little resistance.
Bearish Candles (Close < Open): When the candle closes lower than it opened, it represents a market where sellers took charge. A long red body with little wick indicates a strong bearish move. A bearish candle with long wicks shows that although sellers were in control, there was some pushback.
Doji Candles: A doji occurs when the open and close are almost identical, signaling indecision or equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Doji candles are like a “question mark” in the story, telling us that the market is uncertain about which direction it will take next.
Engulfing Candles: An engulfing pattern, whether bullish or bearish, tells the story of a shift in momentum. If a candle completely engulfs the previous candle’s body, it signifies a strong change in sentiment—either a bullish or bearish reversal.
Putting it All Together: Candlestick Psychology in Action
Understanding the OHLC components is the first step, but it’s how these elements come together that really gives you the full psychological picture. A candlestick is like a snapshot of a battle. The open is where it starts, the high and low represent the range of movement during the battle, and the close is where the conflict resolves.
When you read candles in sequence, you begin to see the ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The story unfolds slowly, and the more you practice, the better you become at predicting the next chapter. Let me know your thoughts below!
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) - There's A Problem...On the 29th Oct 2024, you would expect a blow out top, sweeping all time highs, running on all time highs whilst maintaining a strong bullish closure going into the ending of the week but what we are seeing right now is a bullish shooting star formation with the candle body currently under the previous 2 weeks highs. This signifies weakness in bullish momentum, especially if price closes this way on Sunday.
Relief retracement back down to $65,000, even if it's a manipulated spike down to that region does not seem far fetched.
Gold (XAUUSD) - Is $3,000 Per Oz Possible In 2024?There is growing sentiment for gold to reach $3,000 per oz, with the market peaking @ $2,790 current all time highs.
Minor retracements is healthy in the grand scheme of the bull run and bearish continuation down to the daily fair value gap @ $2,214 - $2,697, taking daily buyside liquidity is a reasonable draw going into next week.
EUR/USD - Will We See Bearish Continuation? Much clearer price action than GBPUSD, with Friday rejecting the weekly order block, closing below the prior days low.
Daily bullish order block up for grabs, aiming for low hanging fruits @ 1.07793 - 1.08069.
Very cautious as the US elections is right around the corner.
GBP/USD - Fickle Market Conditions There will be times where higher probability conditions presents itself in GBPUSD but for now, the market is riddled with high resistance, ever since we have dropped down into a discount below 1.30497.
With the election taking place on the 5th November 2024, next week, i am expecting volatility.
Dow Jones (YMZ2024) - Patience Pays In Conditions Like ThisIt's the best time to sit on your hands and gather more price data as there is a lot going on right now making the probabilities for a draw on Sellside 50/50.
High probability trading conditions is where i thrive in but right now, we are not seeing that.
Nasdaq (NQZ2024) - Better Trading Conditions Is ComingSimilar to S&P 500, we have seen a lot of high resistance periods, making it challenging to anticipate with a high accuracy where the next draw on liquidity will be.
Recently, we have seen a shift in market structure, with $20,398* being the weekly consequent encroachment for this week.
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - It's Margin Call SeasonIt's been a rough few weeks for traders as many are complaining about high resistance conditions throughout the past couple of weeks and booyyyy are they right!
Although i have managed to eek a tiny bit of success recently in these conditions, I HIGHLY RECCOMEND against trading with maximum leverage in conditions like this, especially if not a scalper.
Unfinished business @ Sellside is tickling my fancy @ $5,725.25
Dollar Index - Believe In The Bulls!For close to 2 weeks price has been stagnating but when you take the overall medium term trend into consideration, you have to ask yourself this; does this minor relief rally have the possibility of causing a major market structure shift before reaching a major buyside liquidity pool above 104.636?
US T-Bonds - Will Buyers Continue To See Pain?Slowly we see the decline in price action and although it's a very choppy time we are in, the continuation to the downside, at least down to 115.30 going into the next weeks seem very reasonable.
Although bearish, placing shorts in market conditions like this is high risk.
It's worth, at times waiting for the market to draw to you.
US 10Y Yields - 4.493% Is Up For Debating Bullish but taking a lot of cautions due to the current sentiment at the moment.
Low resistance liquidity run from 3.599% to 4.386% in a little over 7 weeks is a trend that could continue but as a trader who likes to see both sides of the story, it's; only a matter of time before the trend will reverse.
The real question is when??