So....I guess we got our high prob targets sooner than later.
In typical SPY fashion it just gunned for all the targets right off the bet.
So let's recap.
The high prob targets for this week were 4011 on SPX and 399 on SPY.
While SPY was mixed in terms of probability, SPX was extremely convincing, with the odds of upside being 0:5 and the odds of downside being...
After a week of consolidation, the all-important US CPI print looms over markets, as the tide looks like it may be starting to turn in favour of dollar bulls, as Treasury yields tear higher.
Bitcoin halving is a significant event on the Bitcoin network every four years. During this event, the block reward that miners receive for verifying transactions and adding new blocks to the blockchain is reduced by 50%. This means that the rate of new Bitcoin creation slows down, and the total supply of Bitcoin approaches its maximum limit of 21...
CBOT: Micro Treasury Yields ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , CBOT_MINI:5YY1! , CBOT_MINI:10Y1! , CBOT_MINI:30Y1! )
Is the US economy heading towards a “no landing”, as opposed to a “hard landing” or a “soft landing"? There is a heated debate among economists and market strategists.
What is a "no landing"? It is a new term drawn up by Wall Street, which describes the...
There are extensive fundamental comments, context, and observations in the two DXY pieces written in 2022. They are linked below.
The 70.70 - 121.02 trading range has defined the Dollar trade over most of the last 4 decades. Even at the August 2022 high, DXY remained well within this range.
Since correcting from the August 2022 high, the market is now in the...
RBNZ were one of the first central banks to hike rates, and could one of the last to finish at the rate they are going.
We'll cover key economic developments, NZD crosses and what to expect ahead of this potentially live meeting.
Introduction:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a widely followed indicator of the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. As gold is priced in US dollars, changes in the value of the dollar can have an impact on the price of gold. In this article, we will explore the relationship between the DXY index and the price of gold, and why this...
Fighting innovation is a fool’s errand. Getting entangled in hype is no less.
Generative AI is drawing attention. ChatGPT skyrocketed in popularity since launch last November. With its intuitive responses, it has become the fastest-growing app in history reaching one million users in five days and 100 million in two months. In contrast, Google took 12 months and...
With price and “commodity premiums” that we track showing signs of a structural shift, we think these represents potential tradeable set-up in the mid to long term as supply and demand finds some way to normalization after the pandemic & war shocks over the past 2 years. Hence, we think commodities will continue to be where the actions at.
With winter just about...
Hi there!
In our last post, we referenced the terminal rate, what it is and why it’s important in this lovely concise post for you .
It’s time to update that viewpoint dramatically!
In the chart above, you can see the Fed Funds price term structure, which is effectively showing you interest rate pricing (y-axis) across different tenors (put simply, months...
👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection....
The CFTC has failed since 24th January to publish COT data.
“Following the ION cyber-related incident, reporting firms are continuing to experience some issues submitting timely and accurate data to the CFTC. As a result, the weekly Commitments of Traders (CoT) report that normally would have been published on Friday, February 17, will be postponed."
...
Hello Friends!
This is a 3 Week chart of SPY, showing you the past 20 years of price action... From the 2001 dot com bubble, to the 2022 recession, to today in 2023
I decided to explore the possibility of the bottom being in and developed a thesis based on this
Taking a look at the 3 Week MACD, we can see multiple golden crosses as highlighted by the YELLOW...
The SPY is still consolidating on declining volume getting ready to move. It looks like a continuation pattern(Yellow) from the overall major pattern breakout(Blue). The traditional target would be 425-430 where there is some nice resistance. If this pattern fails and breaks down, I will look for 393. This major breakout will help crypto breath really nice and BTC...
🏆What Is A Moving Average:
A moving average is one of the lagging technical indicators which the traders and investors use for determining the trend’s direction. It totals the data points of the chart and then divides the total by the number of data points over a specific time period for arriving at an average. It is referred to as the “moving” average as it is...
Block was a prominent growth stock before and during the pandemic. Like most companies of that type, it fell sharply between late-2021 and late-2022 as interest rates rose. But now it may be showing signs of bottoming and potentially turning higher.
The first pattern on today’s chart is last November’s high of $75.77. SQ broke above that level in late January and...
