Q: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline...
Important updates on the UK side for those in UK related assets. A game changer cabinet reshuffle to put a 🍒 picked “Yes man” in the Treasury. Downing Street making renovations and now in full control of not only No.10 but also No.11 (and scarily soon to be the BOE next month).
Sunak will turn the fiscal taps on full blast, the fuel behind fiscal stimulus will...
Here you can see where the money from the euro area flows, among other things. Nobody talks about it and the media sell the "EU people" once again for stupid and tell corresponding fairy tales.
The high of the Euro in the third week of February marks the low of 10-year British government bonds.
The first of March low in the euro with 1.2124 marks the blue 1 high...
Bonds are holding at the minor projection at 121.72. Due to the underlying bearish momentum we expect a continuation towards the much more important targets at respectively 116.82 and 108.90. Note that this latter level is virtually equal to multiple pivots of 2013-2014.
We maintain our strong negative stance versus bonds. Only a recovery above 125<>125.20 can...
Uk gilts look like a short here on the break of multidiagonal support. There's a confluence somewhere between April to August so i would be expecting a drop to around the 11.50-12.00 level on a longer term basis.
Gilt’s daily close above 127.23 (23.6% Fibo retracement) on Monday if followed by a move back above resistance at 127.63 could yield a rally to weekly 5-MA level of 128.03 – 128.22 (38.2% Fibo).
On the lower side, failure to hold above 127.23 followed by a break below 126.42 (Oct 20 low) would open doors for a re-test of 125.63 (Oct 17 low).
Rebound from the low of 125.627 on the back of a bullish price RSI divergence and a bullish MACD crossover has run into resistance at 127.23, which is 23.6% Fibo resistance of the sell-off from 132.424-125.627.
Given the bullish divergence on the 4-hr and bullish pin bar on the daily chart the odds of a break above 127.23 and a rise to 128.00 are high.
Bullish price RSI divergence on 4-hr chart followed by a rise to 127.00 levels suggests a retreat from Sep 27 high of 131.94 may have run out of steam and prices could rally further if the hurdle at 127.39 (Falling trend line + 23.6% Fibo) is breached.
On the lower side, only a break below 125.84 would signal fresh sell-off.