Looking at some multiple argument resitance ahead of MU price. 25/26 Bull Put Spread from earlier this week plays out nicely. Didn´t get filled on the second wing of the proposed Iron Condor so now waiting for price to rally into this resitance area and they open a Bear Put Spread
Earnins were 14% bettern than expected. Last time earnings were better than expected LULU made 20% profit in less than a year! Here, price bounces out of support area. Implied volatility rasies, almost 30%. If the Gap partially closes next week I expect IV to grow even further and potentially provide some noce premium to collect on selling calls below the support are
VIX With July VIX options at 51 days until expiry, it's time again for a monthly VIX iron fly: VIX July 21st 10/13/13/16 Iron Fly Metrics: Max Profit: 2.00 at the mid POP: <1% Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: 1.00 Break Evens: 11/15 Notes: This setup involves looking at the /VX futures monthly expiry nearest to 45 days until expiration. That is currently...
Diagonals are considered a low volatility strategy that look for volatility expansion going forward, and with VIX finishing the week in sub-10 territory, there probably isn't a better time to put one on. Here the legs of the setup are around the 20 delta strike, although a variation is to go for a small net credit where the credit received for the short options...
Basically, a synthetic short FXE position with some put side flexibility in the event that I am totally wrong ... . Metrics: POP%: 46% Max Profit: $95/contract Max Loss/BPE: $105/contract BE's at 102.04/105.96 Theta: .38 Delta: -22 Notes: Shooting for 50% max ... .
... for a .61 credit. With EWZ caving heftily here and implied volatility popping, I'm going back to the Brazilian well narrow and small, since I can foresee this having some volatility in it for a bit, in which case I may want to add to the position. Metrics: POP%: 63% Max Profit: $61/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $139/contract BE's:...
With summer somewhat upon us and with my wife making various plans (she's basically the family "travel agent"/"arranger"), I'm looking to wind down "higher attention span" setups and get into lower key/lower maintenance setups here so that I'm not driving her nuts on the road. "Hey, I just need to pull off here for a few and look at a few trades ... " gets pretty...
A slight variation on a Super Bull (short put vertical financing a long put vertical; bullish assumption). Metrics: POP%: 71% Max Profit: 1.12/contract Max Loss/BPE: 1.88/contract Break Even: 25.88 Notes: There are a couple of different ways to work this intratrade: (a) take the long put vert off in profit, leave the short put vert to ride; (b) the inverse of...
This is basically an iron condor variation where you double up the number of contracts on the call side while going narrower with the call side spread. Due to "the math" of that, there is no additional buying power effect, but you collect some additional credit ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $76/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect:...
A high implied vol rank/implied vol, earnings volatility contraction play with no downside risk ... Metrics: POP%: 72% Max Profit: $101/contract Max Loss/BPE: $199/contract BE at 111.01 (no downside risk). Notes: A good finish remains between the short strikes (95.5/113). Attempting to avoid getting "AMD'd" here ... . Will look to take profit at 50% max. ...
With the French elections now in the rear-view mirror, the Euro is at 1.10-ish at Asian open, and I'm looking to watch and short /E6 or FXE after seeing how far the spot forex pair goes here. Typically, the currency doesn't move all that much in the Asian session, so I kind of want to see what the European market does with the news before committing to a short...
... for a .57/contract credit. Here, I'm opting for a higher POP% over max profit (there are always trade offs). Metrics: POP%: 69% Max Profit: $57/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $243 BE's at 139.43/155.57 Notes: I'll look to take profit somewhere north of 50% max ... .
This is another one of them there "Term Structure" trades which use the VIX futures as a guide for the short call strike. Here, I'm using /VXH7, which is the March VIX futures contract, which is currently trading at 15.72, so I'm using the 16 short call in VIX. ... Filled for a .71 credit. Notes: This is a little bit farther out in time than I generally like to...
Out of a Brazil play and into a China play ... . Metrics: Max Profit: $153/contract Max Loss: $147/contract Break Evens: 33.97/37.03 Notes: Will look to manage this at 25% max.
The last VIX pop around elections, I chose to piddle with an SVXY ATM short put credit spread (see post below). It worked out great, but SVXY isn't the most liquid thing in the world (I knew that going in). In comparison, VIX options are about the cleanest short volatility setup you can get, although a small drawback is that you won't get the added contango...
I did this one on Friday on the volatility pop we had, but didn't get a chance to post ... . I got it filled for an $87/contract credit, but could have done better were I to have had time to do some price discovery. SVXY isn't the most liquid thing in the world, so it pays to be patient and fiddle with getting a fill $5-$15 above the stated mid price. Here, I'm...
Playing TWTR earnings for volatility contraction here ... . The metrics: Probability of Profit: 47% Max Profit: $217/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $183/contract Break Evens: 15.83/20.17 Notes: As with a short straddle, I'll look to manage this at 25% max profit. I'm putting this on a touch early so that I don't space it out at the last moment. My...
Okay, okay, okay ... . It is likely that this company is a ginormous turd pile, but the implied volatility in it is high, so I'm pulling the trigger here on it as a small speculative trade. Metrics: Bought 100 Shares at 1.61 Sold Oct 21st 2 call Whole Package: 1.37 db Max Profit: $63 ROC: 46%