comparisons are telling us simply when more people are able to borrow money real estate does better. interest rate data from whale crew tells us as long as we climb this indication the risk gets worse for borrowers. as long as those go in the specified direction im looking at higher prices in this fund. all is normal as in everyone is doing fine, and still doesnt...
With the yield curve inverted, inflation slowing rapidly and global growth expectations revised downwards, long term treasury bonds are looking like an excellent allocation right now. A reversion to 2% on 30 Year yields over the next couple of years would produce double digit Annualized returns. Full story here: matthewiesulauro.substack.com
We hope everyone had a great start to the year! As we think about the year ahead and some of the major themes that might play out, the EU vs US inflation story is among those catching our eyes now in particular. “Inflation” & “Rate Hikes” were the main talking points for the US Economy in 2022 as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reacted and adjusted to stubborn...
Fed claiming to continue rate increases. 2-year treasuries calling, "Bluff"! One of them is lying.
Bitcoin seems bullish. Will this run continue? Before we get too bullish, I want us to be cognizant of a few caution flags I am seeing. 1. Daily RSI Overbought 2. Downtrend Resistance at $18,700, a key price. 3. Shorts Way Oversold! 4. S&P Resistance at huge Area of Confluence 5. Gary Gensler Gunning for Gemini and Genesis
CPI at 6.5%. In line with expectations. Market remains rather neutral. Which means the news will probably not be a big enough kick to get us to the topside of major resistance on the charts. Unless/until JPOW & Co. actually pivot, either via language or actions, the market is likely to continue its current price action underneath our downtrend resistance. Stew
Eyes on today's CPI Risk markets set the tone on Wednesday as traders reacted to hopes that Today’s CPI data will come in lower than expected. This could lead to small interest rate hikes and could even signal peak inflation. We’re anticipating tonight’s data and if it will live up to the hype. How much has been factored in? Could it be a disappointment if it...
In this video I cover the divergence between the 2 and 10 year treasuries and the recent FOMC press conference language. Jerome Powell is promising one thing (continued rate increases), while the bond market seems to be claiming otherwise (Fed pause incoming). Who's right? Let's take a closer look.
$TNX is closed atm but if the 2yr is an indication it may open higher We re-entered long yield after FED day in DEC. Sold puts on $TYO & bought common Didn't go heavy because Monthly chart is a tad tough. Weekly 2yr trading decently above avg's again So far so good. We were bullish on STOCKS but that was late Oct/Early Nov, then went bearish for a bit, & are...
Where is fair value and where is cheap? Price and value are not the same. Price is snapshot of opinion while value is a moving story that changes over time. PE price to earnings is how we gauge value, at least one of the main ways. I like to think of PE in terms of years. How many years of earnings am I paying in advance for this underlying business?. It...
The technicals give me the signal but if anyone is interested in rate hikes and fundamentals, may be take a slice of advice from Bank of America. © Oliver Levingston Merrill Lynch (Australia) oliverllewellyn.levingston@bofa.com • The RBA will likely deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike next week. A cooler monthly inflation print has investors betting on a lower...
TECHNICAL REASON: Price was within the zone of interest and the 4H candle has no lower wick which means everyone is priced one way; could see some profit taking ahead of FOMC FUNDAMENTAL REASON: It is worth noting that to the Fed, to gage inflation and how sticky it is or isn't, they are looking at jobs (more than CPI, PPI etc). Since the job market isn't...
Today we have FOMC FED announcement! This is likely going to create volatility in the market. If we measure the how long it takes for a market to reach bottom we can see that the average time after the first FED cut is 9 months. From previous post we saw that the first RAISE was in 11 May 2022. Now if the FED pauses or cuts rates will start our timing of the...
As long as inflationary expectations remained low after Jerome's last speech where he spoke about softening the increase in interest rates, which may or may not be the case, there is a good chance that inflation ticks down. This would confirm a 50bp hike for December, easing monetary policy and providing room for equities to continue their rally. While I think a...
The past two weeks have been relatively calm as Bitcoin traded in the $16,000 to $17,500 range. It appeared that the contagion effects from the FTX collapse were slowly starting to fade, however in the past few days more information has surfaced surrounding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and its potential insolvency. On Wednesday GBTC closed down -7.42%, giving...
audnzd might have some good bounce from current 1.06 area ..later on after AUD rate should have clearer indications.NZD could be weaker as compared to AUD. But of coz the other side of thing can happen where AUDNZD just break lower from this consolidation... *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If...
Todays FOMC minutes stated they will "support slowing of interest rate hikes soon to assess the lagged impact of monetary policy" XHB - Homebuilders etf will benefit most from slowing or pausing of rates. New home sales data today reported better than expected results too.
Presently, the inflation rate in the US has started falling, which increases expectations for a pivot - end of interest rate hikes. And factually, we can actually expect it. The supply of M2 Money Stock (M2SL) and its annual growth rate are decreasing. The global economy is shifting, as leading economic index (LEI) indicate. This will undoubtedly put pressure on...