The GBPUSD is moving impulsively. A break lower than the current intraday low would signal a continuation of this bear move. The market has sold off continuously since the Bank of England raised rates, and this week is no different.
This year alone we've seen almost 400 basis points! #FED rates are finally @ $TNX level! We called this some time ago, catching up Why is #TNX not ripping? Likely believe there's not that much more in hikes by the fed That HUGE negative divergence is telling #stocks #bonds #crypto
As we look ahead to the US midterms on 9 November, the question traders ask is whether it has the potential to be a risk event and promote increased cross-market volatility – as part of the risks assessment, the election has implications on whether to reduce trading exposures over the event. Anecdotally it feels like traders aren’t giving the elections too much...
Key event risk summary: • FOMC meeting (3 Nov 5 am AEDT) and chair Jay Powell press conference – the Fed hike 75bp, but it’s all about the guidance • RBA meeting (1 Nov 14:30 AEDT) – A 25bp hike is expected, watch for the optionality of a bigger hike in the December meeting • BoE meeting (3 Nov 23:00 AEDT) – a 75bp expected – Comments from members Mann and Pill...
Demand for the dollar is usually high as it is the world's reserve currency. Other factors that influence whether or not the dollar rises in value in comparison to another currency include inflation rates, trade deficits, and political stability. The dollar has been gaining strength against the currencies of other major economies. The dollar is strong because the...
Long on TLT here.. I think we could see 99-102 fairly soon with a huge reversal in the coming days. 100 lvl broke through and sold hard, I believe this will be a fake breakdown and if anything could be bottoming or reversing soon.
Clear divergence between USD (DXY) and Gold$ for most of 2022. Perhaps a weaker Dollar will lead to a stronger Gold price. We are certainly in the window for seasonal gold purchases and US interest rates have been raised agressively perhaps a pause in rate rises is now due
Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1M Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to...
A pure trend analysis of US interest rates and inflation. In my opinion, the cheap money and low inflation era has ended in the long term.
Hello dear traders, I think gold will continue forming lower lows on its way to the weekly demand zone of 1590-1570 area. I have draw paths of possible impulse as break and retest areas. For bullish reversal, I want to see a clear break of 1660 zone with price action retest. Dollar is getting stronger and stronger with this solid and aggressive FED policy...
The bond market has broken a 35Y downtrend and we can see in this chart the correlation to the rate hikes, is this a sign of substantial rate hikes in the future?
How long can they play this game? The Debt*Rates lines is just for visualization purposes, not real data
Can there be new correlations between Interst Rates, Markets and War?
Hi, and welcome to Wednesday’s update. Today we are looking at the USD, and it’s hard not to focus on the dollar with all the key news that’s on the way. From tonight, 11:30 local time (AEDT), we have PPI followed by the Fed minutes at 5:00 am and US CPI data at 11:30 pm to cap it off. The CPI data being released will be both the M/M EXP 0.2% and the Y/Y EXP...
In my opinion the market is trying to find a bottom. How far it will go down, Im not sure, but anything lower that 3450-ish, will take market to very oversold territory. Everyone is waiting for Thursday’s CPI, depending on the result this can go either way: 1. Inflation is rising - this means FED will be rise rates by 0.75 in November, strong move downside, but...
Hey all, I wanted to post a few thoughts of the somewhat educational variety. Hopefully this will help with perspective on where we've been and why I continue to see equity market weakness for the extended and foreseeable future (1-3 years maybe). So starting with this chart, this is the 10 year US Treasury yield below and the S&P 500 index above going back to...
Bitcoin - Forecast + Targets. Using Elliott Wave and Smart Money Concepts
After a brutal week/month for risky assets, we turn the page and look to trade all the grenades that are thrown at us in the new week – the dynamic remains one of further fundamental downside risk, amid technically oversold conditions, which suggests any resemblance of good/less bad news should see pronounced upside moves. That said, much will need to go right for...