In February, we saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) reject the 100.85 price area to climb strongly to the upside due to several key events 1) Federal Reserve hiked rates to 4.75%. Although the initial reaction was a big drop to test the low of 100.85, the comments accompanying the rate decision indicated that further rate increases could be expected as inflation has...
Short rates flying (up to 1Yr #yield) Already broke previous highs Compare to 2 (slightly lower than previous highs) & 10 $TNX (chart tells story) #Market trading = #inflation higher vs #Fed expectation of 2% Markets not expecting recession or lower inflation NO soft landing - party on But that'll mean eventual HAWKISH FED Dilemma #stocks or #economy, only 1
The narrative from earlier this yr that slowing growth would cause the Fed to pivot sooner rather than later is slowly being undone as market participants realize that inflation is sticky and likely to result in rates higher for longer from the Fed. As a play on higher rates I like TBT the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Yr Treasury ETF. It has recently broken its...
Putting on the same chart the S&P and fed rate the last three market bottoms happened a year and a half after the fed funds rate peaks. (589 days avg.) That would put the next one in September 2024
Last week's surprising jobs report sticky inflation, and persistent and frothy financial conditions may force the Federal Reserve members into a more hawkish position, forcing them to keep the heat on interest rates and the money supply. Many market participants were looking for a pause in rate hikes as soon as next month and possibly a pivot to lowering rates...
This week, we thought it will be interesting to review the trade from last week given the reaction post-FOMC, as well as discuss an alternative way to set up this trade. Firstly, let’s review the post-FOMC/employment data reaction. - Nonfarm Payrolls surprised to the upside, as over half a million jobs were added way above the estimates of a sub 200K...
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Traders, The market expects 25 basis points tomorrow. What they are unsure of is how it will look in March. While the fed may indicate yet another rate hike in March, the dollar, vix, and treasuries are telling us else wise. Let's take a spin through our lead indicators today as well as Bitcoin. Stew
Those who have been reading our past 2 ideas will know we’ve been harping on and on about expected rate path and policy timelines. Why the recent obsession you ask? Because we think we’re on the cusp of major turning points. So, for the third time, let’s look at the market’s expected policy rate path. With FOMC coming up this week, we are expecting a 25bps...
VIX price movement is clearly narrowing from a charting technical view, but within the economic fundamentals we have the FED raising rates at an extremely fast pace into a slowdown. Their publicly stated inflation projection was clearly wrong, I highly doubt they will squash inflation with much accuracy given these blunt force tools. For this reason the VIX could...
As of recently we have been in a small bull run. Bulls have been pumping on bad news, being dumb and relentlessly rallying. This is normal for bulls though so what can we expect? Bulls gonna do what bulls gonna do! We are at a strong resistance/supply level however, the bulls have been very violent and are out for blood as they aim to plow through this...
It’s been a while since we looked at the Russell 2000. For the uninitiated, the Russell 2000 index is a small-cap stock market index that is made up of the smallest 2000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. The small-cap nature means a few things, volatility tends to be higher for one. And capturing this downside volatility using the Russell 2000 as compared with...
comparisons are telling us simply when more people are able to borrow money real estate does better. interest rate data from whale crew tells us as long as we climb this indication the risk gets worse for borrowers. as long as those go in the specified direction im looking at higher prices in this fund. all is normal as in everyone is doing fine, and still doesnt...
With the yield curve inverted, inflation slowing rapidly and global growth expectations revised downwards, long term treasury bonds are looking like an excellent allocation right now. A reversion to 2% on 30 Year yields over the next couple of years would produce double digit Annualized returns. Full story here: matthewiesulauro.substack.com
We hope everyone had a great start to the year! As we think about the year ahead and some of the major themes that might play out, the EU vs US inflation story is among those catching our eyes now in particular. “Inflation” & “Rate Hikes” were the main talking points for the US Economy in 2022 as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reacted and adjusted to stubborn...
Fed claiming to continue rate increases. 2-year treasuries calling, "Bluff"! One of them is lying.
Bitcoin seems bullish. Will this run continue? Before we get too bullish, I want us to be cognizant of a few caution flags I am seeing. 1. Daily RSI Overbought 2. Downtrend Resistance at $18,700, a key price. 3. Shorts Way Oversold! 4. S&P Resistance at huge Area of Confluence 5. Gary Gensler Gunning for Gemini and Genesis
CPI at 6.5%. In line with expectations. Market remains rather neutral. Which means the news will probably not be a big enough kick to get us to the topside of major resistance on the charts. Unless/until JPOW & Co. actually pivot, either via language or actions, the market is likely to continue its current price action underneath our downtrend resistance. Stew