Ever since the FED has been talking about interest rates, I see questions popping up on social media where investors ask why the federal funds rate (also known as the FED interest rate) is so important for the stock and crypto markets. With this post I'd like to write an easy understandable explanation on what the FED funds rate is and why it is important. What...
I see QQQ going further down. With increasing interest rates and further FED news, the levels listed could be hit today or tomorrow - even as late as Monday 04/11.
Overall, AUD/USD have been trending upwards. Following the RBA rate decision and statement, the AUD/USD rose significantly. The Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision to be released on Tuesday (5th April), indicated: - Unemployment rate to fall to below 4 per cent this year and to remain below 4 per cent next year. - Inflation has increased in Australia, but...
This is a big issue for the ECB, and they're very much between a rock and a hard place. For years the bank has kept policy extremely easy, and the economy has largely become used to this. However, they are now facing an inflation backdrop that ironically, they probably could only dream of 10 years ago (OK maybe not as high as it currently is, but you get the...
Given the recent market selloff, the reversal forming on the daily, and with interest rates on the rise, financial companies will begin to rally again. I'm looking to take a long-term position in JPM, given they are a leader in the market and pay a high dividend. Aiming to take next January's ATM (140) calls.
united states yield curve. Is the yield curve inverted 2021? Today, the U.S. yield curve is not inverted, but it's getting a lot less steep in recent months. There's a 42bps spread between the 10 year and 2 year U.S. Treasury bond yields today. In March 2021, the spread was triple that.11 feb 2022 L.E.D. In Spain on 28/03/2022
The monthly chart for US 30-year mortgage rates is exploding higher at a rate not seen since the 1970s. This chart shows that monthly rates are following the 3rd standard deviation higher, which is an extremely rare rate of increase. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown at the bottom of this chart. The CCI is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis...
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The...
Hello everyone. Finally Fed hiked the interest rate for the first time since 2018 by 25bps to combat the surging inflation issue. Before the FOMC meeting, forks have already expected 25bps hike against the backdrop of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On the weekly chart, it looks firmly conquered the 2% trouble level and entered a range with upper...
The history doesn't repeat? Check the tendencial line
Aggressive rate projection for 2023 by the #FED was the main highlight from the meeting in an effort to curb #inflation expectations 2.5% is the target of it expectations for 2023 (which is unsustainable due to the high levels of debt in the system)
The US Federal Reserve kicked off its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, with the markets widely anticipating a 25 basis-point hike in what would be the first interest rate increase since 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier raised the prospect of a 25bp hike, telling a House financial services committee hearing two weeks ago that he is...
This chart uses a simple downtrend in order to predict the terminal fed funds rate, which I believe will be 150-175 basis points by March 2023. As we can see, the previous fed funds rate hikes under the current downtrend have resulted in periods of lower GDP growth as well as yield-curve inversions and very regularly precede lows in total US jobless claims (the...
A good trading friend of mine asked for a fresh set of eyes on $OPEN. I figured I would share here. I don't like the impersonal style of this company. When people sell a home- they want a personal relationship with their realtor. Anyone with their chops would tell you it's best to expose the house to the market and let a bidding war take place. This model is...
CADJPY has been in a solid uptrend for some time now however the price has been unable to past the recent high of 91.00. The RSI levels on the 30m and 1hr time frame are in very oversold regions which indicates that price could fall from here. On the 2hr time frame, there is some selling pressure appearing on the recent candle which also adds to our short bias....
CAD could be on the up rise for 2 main reasons: 1. Oil prices are sky-rocketing and the Canadian dollar is co-rellated to Oil. Oil up, CAD also Up 2. Rate Hike is inbound. The Bank of Canada’s First Rate Hike Since 2018 Expected This Week. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to increase its overnight target rate on Wednesday morning. Despite the market...
Taking the long view of the last forty years of prosperity where BTFDs and HOLD THE COURSE were the prevailing mantra. But that is paradigm is now over and the new paradigm has yet to emerge. My GURUs are split between A STOCK PICKERS MARKET and THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL CRASH, But Precious metals and other inflation hedges. But what are you going to do? That is...
The S&P500 appears to be very high, especially for a period of high inflation combined with low yields, which has historically not been good for stocks. Historical long term.