The Art of Technical Analysis for Beginners 123 Top & BottomsHey Traders so In my last video we discussed what are Fibonacci Retracements and how they can benefit you in your trading. Today I want to go over one of the most powerful chart formations in technical analysis called the 123 top and 123 bottom.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
Technical Analysis
Different Chart Patterns for Trend AnalysisLet's look at different chart patterns which help the traders to analyze the market. Chart patterns are a way of viewing a series of price actions that occur during a trading period. It can be over any time frame – monthly, weekly, daily, and intra-day. The great thing about chart patterns is that they tend to repeat themselves over and over again. Let's look at a few of these.
➡️ Ascending Triangle is a bullish continuation pattern. It is also called a 'rising triangle'. It is formed by a rising lower trendline and a flat upper trendline that acts as support. This pattern indicates that the buyers are more aggressive than the sellers as the price continues to make higher lows. This pattern completes itself when price breaks out of the triangle in the direction of the overall trend.
➡️ Inverse Head & Shoulder is a similar pattern to the head & shoulder pattern, just inverted. This pattern generally indicates a bullish trend movement. This pattern is a trend reversal chart pattern. This pattern makes three peaks, the two outside peaks are about the same height, and the middle one is the lowest. It is a reversal pattern, from bearish to bullish. This pattern is comprised of three parts: After long bearish trends, the price falls to a trough and then rises to make a peak. Again, the price falls to form a second trough below the previous low and increases again. The price falls for the third time, but only to the level of the first trough, before rising once more and reversing the trend.
➡️ Falling Wedge is created when a market consolidates between two converging support and resistance lines. A falling wedge is considered a bullish pattern. This price action forms a cone that slopes down as the highs and lows converge. This pattern is widest at the top and becomes narrower as it moves downward. It leads to tighter price action. If the falling wedge shows up in a downtrend, it is seen as a reversal pattern.
➡️ Triple Top is a bearish pattern. It is formed when the price makes three similar highs and then rejects to make a downtrend. The formation of this pattern is completed when the prices move back to the support line after forming the third peak.
➡️ Head & Shoulder formation consists of a left shoulder, a head, and a right shoulder and a line drawn as the neckline. Volume is highest and often expands on the left shoulder as the uptrend continues and more and more investors want to get in, whereas it is lowest on the right shoulder as investors sense a trend reversal. This low volume is often considered a strong sign of reversal.
➡️ Rising Wedge is formed when the market begins making higher highs and higher lows. All of the highs must be in-line so that they can be connected by a trend line. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern. This chart pattern has a wide trading range at the bottom and contracts to a smaller trading range as prices trend up. The rising wedge pattern signals a possible selling opportunity either after an uptrend or during an existing downtrend. The entry (sell order) is placed either when the price breaks below the bottom side of the wedge or the price finds resistance at the lower trend line.
➡️ Bullish Rectangle pattern is formed during an uptrend, defining the horizontal levels of support and resistance. The price keeps moving between the support and resistance lines. It maintains its highs and lows forming a trading range making a kind of a rectangle. These support and resistance lines should be parallel to each other. It is always advised to wait for a breakout confirmation on the resistance level to take a trade setup.
➡️ Bullish Pennant occurs just after a sharp rise in price and resembles a triangular flag as the price moves sideways, making gradually lower highs and higher lows. The uptrend then continues with another similar-sized rise in price. A bullish pennant has a pole that is created when the price experiences a sharp rise and then a pennant attached to the pole. The price when breaks the flag, signals a continuation of an uptrend.
➡️ Triple Bottom signals a bullish reversal pattern. This pattern consists of three equal lows followed by a breakout above resistance. The three bottoms should be nearly equal in size and have sufficient space between them. The confirmation for this pattern is a close above the upper trendline with above-average volume. Traders should treat the triple bottom pattern as a neutral pattern until the breakout is confirmed. Once the upper resistance level is broken with a sharp increase in volume, the momentum will likely carry the price action higher.
Thanks for reading, and let us know what do you think about these chart patterns in the comment box below.
Happy Trading
RSI Divergence on APPLE ChartRSI stands for relative strength index and it helps measure the direction and momentum of a specific stock.
Generally, RSI looks at gains and losses over 14 periods, although some traders could rely on different time intervals.
An RSI indicator increases when a stock increases in value and decreases when the opposite is true.
The indicator is measured on a scale of 0 to 100. When it drops below 30, the stock is oversold and has likely been trending downward for some time. Conversely, RSI of 70 or above indicates a stock on an uptrend that is now overbought.
Said that, The RSI divergence helps stock traders spot and take advantage of investment divergence.
When used correctly, RSI can be one of the best available effective trade and confirmation indicators.
With RSI divergence, the relative strength index of a specific stock shows lower highs when the price uptrend hits higher highs, and viceversa.
Divergence indicates that the current price trend is flagging, which provides insight into whether it’s time to make a move to buy or sell that particular stock. When an indicator disagrees with the price, this lack of synchronicity indicates a likely change with the chart.
On this chart we can see the RSI divergence on Apple (AAPL). What do you think about it?
Improve your Technical Analysis using Fundamental Analysis!In this video I decided to show you how to use Fundamental Analysis along with Technical Analysis in order to improve your understanding about the market.
Although it is not common, as most people seem to like Tradingview for its price charts/indicators, you can use this platform for fundamental analysis as well . In this video I explain the importance of looking at the fundamentals through a chart.
I hope you'll like the video! In this case, remember to support this idea, and follow me for more content like this.
Have a good week.
Fundamental Indicators used in this video:
- Price to Earnings;
- Net Margin (%);
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC).
Learn How to Trade Double Bottom Formation | Full Guide 📚
Hey traders,
If you are learning price action trading, you definitely must know a double bottom pattern.
Double bottom is a reversal pattern.
It is applied to spot early market reversal clues and catch the initiation of a new bullish trend.
Preconditions for a double bottom:
1️⃣ The market must trade in a bearish trend.
2️⃣ After a formation of the last lower high, the price must set equal low.
3️⃣ The price must return back to the last lower high level.
✅Once these conditions are met the pattern is considered to be completed.
The formation of the pattern is considered to be a ⚠️WARNING sign.
Even though many traders buy the pattern once it is completed,
for me it is not enough.
❗️Remember that the price can easily start to consolidate and form a horizontal channel for example.
The trigger that we will look for is the breakout (candle close above) the last lower high level (based on a wick and its highest candle close) - the neckline.
Being broken to the upside, the market sets a new higher high.
It signifies a violation of a current bearish trend.
⬆️Attempting to catch an initiation of a bullish trend, we will buy the market with a buy limit order on a retest of a broken neckline.
❌Safest stop will lie below the lows of the pattern.
💰Your reward must be at least 1.5 of your risk.
Following these simple rules, you will be impressed by how accurate this pattern is!
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Correlation of price movementTHESE ARE TWO THEORIES. THE FIRST IS ACCORIDNG TO WYCKOFF, THE SECONS IS THE DOW THEORY
1) Accumulation begins with the price stopping and the formation of support, followed by the end of sales, the opposite level is gradually formed - resistance
and the price goes into a sideways movement. It has a name - Accumulative flat or consolidation. Dow says that it is impossible to trade in flat, this is not a place to trade
2) Consolidation ends when there is an update of the tops and someone from the sides - buyers or sellers, starts winning in the market, but it is quite difficult
to break through from the first time and often a large player deceives the players in this way by making a false breakout.
3) Wyckoff's theory mentions retests of the support level, a sequential movement that follows a stop. Assessment of the state of the lower limit of accumulation,
after which the market reverses and moves in the opposite direction to the previous movement. The accumulation is exited and the trend is reversed.
TREND
In essence, a trend is the direction of the predominant movement of indicators. Usually considered in the framework of technical analysis, where the direction
of price movement is implied. Charles Dow noted that in an uptrend, the subsequent peak on the chart should be higher than the previous ones, in a downtrend,
subsequent downturns on the chart should be lower than the previous ones. There are upward, downward and sideways trends. A trend line is often drawn on the chart,
which connects two or more price troughs in an uptrend, and connects two or more price peaks in a downtrend.
Newest layout and maybe my best one yet!This layout has everything you'll need for price action trading. All custom settings with included indicators. ( Trendlines, pivot points, bollinger bands, RSI Divergence, VMC-Cipher, Money-Miner with custom settings and bar colors.
- This setup is absolutely awesome for scalping and intraday trading. It only has useful moving averages and indicators and everything flows together almost seemlessly. Enjoy!!
--CryptoSavvy
Link to chart setup - www.tradingview.com
📚13 Topics You MUST Study in Trading👨🎓👩🎓
Hey traders,
I receive dozens of questions each and every day concerning the topics to study to become an expert in technical analysis.
Here I have collected the main subjects that, in my view, are essential for successful trading.
*the order of the topics is spontaneous and there is no logical sequence
1️⃣ - Candlestick patterns
To me, candlesticks are very important for understanding market behavior. A single wick quite often can tell you a story.
Mastering different candle stick patterns, you will be impressed by how much data and information you may derive from analyzing them.
2️⃣ - Price action patterns
At first glance price chart is complete chaos.
The market looks irrational and it feels like there is no way to read it.
Price action patterns are the language of the market.
With them, the price fluctuations start to make sense.
3️⃣ - Support & resistance
All my predictions, all my trades & signals are always based on support & resistance levels.
These are the levels that make the market change its direction, they influence the market so much, therefore you should learn to identify them and constantly hold them on focus.
4️⃣ - Supply & demand zones
The only difference between support & resistance and supply & demand zones is the fact that the first ones are represented as levels while the second ones are represented as the zones.
The identification of these zones is very important for proper market analysis.
5️⃣ - Key levels
Key levels are the strongest supports and resistances.
Of course, spotting various supports and resistances on the chart,
we can not say that they all are equal in their significance.
There is a strong (however subjective) hierarchy of them.
The most significant are called key levels and from them, the most significant moves are always expected.
6️⃣ - Trend analysis
When I teach my students how to analyze the price chart,
I always start with a trend analysis topic.
Knowing where exactly the market is going,
having specific and objective rules for the trend identification
are necessary for successful trading.
7️⃣ - Top-Down analysis
Multi-time frame analysis is my passion.
I am constantly combining the signals & observations from different time frames to make my trading decision and predict future market moves.
It proved to be a very efficient method of trading various markets.
8️⃣ - Financial instruments
Though to many it may sound obvious, in practice I know that a lot of people are struggling with a simple question "What to trade?".
You must learn to properly build your watchlist and you should have strong reasoning behind the selection of each unite that is inside.
9️⃣ - Trend following trading
As we know, the trend is our friend. And even though the phrase itself is very simple and straightforward, it takes so much effort and time to learn to follow the trend properly.
1️⃣0️⃣ - Counter trend trading
Occasionally the market reverses. Properly identifying early reversal signs and then catching a sharp counter-trend move, huge profits can be made.
Even though such a style of trading is considered to be extremely risky, being applied properly will generate a lot of cash.
1️⃣1️⃣ - Risk management
Losses are inevitable.
They are part of the game and we can do nothing about that.
The only thing that we can do, however, is to control the losses.
Calculating the risk for every single transaction is essential to avoid a margin call.
1️⃣2️⃣ - Leverage trading
Leverage selection, margin are the things that are tightly connected with risk management topic.
These are the terms that you must know how to operate with.
1️⃣3️⃣ - Trading psychology
Playing with real money, occasionally losing significant portions of your trading account can be a tough game.
It takes time to build a strong psyche to deal with the irrationality of the market.
Which topic to start with?
Pick any, learn it, study it.
They all are equally important so at the end of the day you need to cover them all in order to become successful.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
TRADING IS PASSION NOT FOR PROFITHi. traders. Trading is actually a PASSION not primarily meant for PROFIT. This concept will reduce your stress during trading and will not let you make mistake during trading. There can be no chart for psychological trading but it is only you who can over come your own greed. Trade stress less with the help Tech Analysis. Every day comes with a dew of learning. Trading view provides a lot of opportunity to learn more. I have traded for last 11 Years and found that this platform is non parrel for traders like us. ENJOY TRADING
The Art of Technical Analysis for Beginners part 2Hey Traders so In my last video we discussed what is technical analysis and how the markets move in 3 ways. Today I want to go over some more basics about price action and one of the most important concepts in all of trading support and resistance.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
How to read a Chart - Part V: Perspectives on MarketConstructionPart V - Perspectives on Market Constructions
Introduction
To enable ourselves to see the markets in a deep and holistic view, we need to know how a market is moving and why. As this is basic economic knowledge,
some things differ slightly, especially in smaller time frames. So, to understand trends and ranges, we need to understand how price is built within a chart.
A. The smallest price indication?
First, the smallest visible indication is built from single trades, from one buyer selling to another. A buyer selling? I will explain this in the next section, don’t worry.
But overall, the smallest transaction, independent of the size of the transaction, is building the “line”, only added with a timestamp.
At this point some already know, others suspect and some wonder: What is this dude talking about?
Evidently I’m talking about the tick chart, as every transaction is recorded as a tick, a single print of conducted business.
And for those who have never seen a tick chart (and as I do not own a pro membership of @TradingView at this very moment),
I’ll show you something that looks like the tick chart.
Even though the picture above is the 1-minute-chart of GRT/BUSD, the tick chart is a non-aggregated line chart connected through single transactions.
Especially in day trading it deploys a very valuable indication of the speed of movement, as well as the ability to see the raw unfiltered and non-aggregated data of transactions.
The downside is you won’t be able to see gaps, fails, strength or weakness.
But wait! Is there anything smaller than a tick chart? And the answer is: YES!
B. Supply and demand
As some already might have suspected, the only thing smaller than the tick chart is the single transaction, the tick itself.
But before we dive deeper into reading the smallest fragment of a chart, we need to understand what drives a market.
Let's have a look at a picture first.
Being the basics of any economic market, the picture above shows the general supply and demand curve.
As this is applying to all timeframes, ranges or scales, there always needs to be someone to push prices higher and lower, some bigger players than the usual traders are,
except you are trading a crypto with low market cap or markets with low liquidity, where you might be able to push prices in a certain direction.
At this point I want to drop an advice for you: don’t try it, but if you want to have this experience and you are driven by an extreme risk-on mode,
there is no holding back ;) .
On the left side you’re seeing a simplified sketch, on the right side a more realistic sketch of a supply-and-demand graph, but I think you’ll get the idea.
In general the graph shows you the basic idea of ANY trade, any type of conducting business, if the flea market, a supermercado, Amazon,
or anything else - not just stock / forex / crypto trading.
If there is value attributed to an object, price will rise; if not, price will fall. This means that only if someone is eager to get a product, prices will rise or if he or she is heavily selling the product, prices will fall.
Let’s have an example: on one hand, think of it like a new and thus rare product that is introduced by only one seller.
If you want to have it, you have to pay the price as nowhere else the product is to be bought, or, on the other hand,
think of it like a product from a discounter which is “in the offer”: as there is a price war or heavy supply the product is therefore very cheap to buy.
If the selling and buying is finding its fair value, price will be stable as the market has found its equilibrium.
If it is a one-timer and interest is lost, the market is oversaturated and prices will stall again.
This is mainly the case for non-consumable goods, as they are not consumed, spent or wasted on a regular basis which would naturally stabilze supply.
Let’s have a look at a picture to explain this from a different perspective.
On the left I’ve visualized the ongoing trading activities. In this case this might also be the day's opening (f.e. in the stock market),
where people are buying and selling at the corresponding prices. After business and deals have been conducted, the market is going into a period of saturation
and is building the actual balance around a bilateral fair value after this session, which results in the middle picture.
The middle picture is displaying the DOM - the depth of market, also known as orderbook, where only the limit orders are displayed. If there are only limit orders,
no trading is possible, because all buyers are below (the bid) and all sellers are above (the ask) the actual price. The span in between is called “the spread”.
In the picture to the right we’re seeing new trading activity as buyers and sellers are moving their orders or recently entered the market with limit orders (orange),
as well as “aggressive” buyers and sellers entering the market using market orders (black).
As shown in the next picture, the trading activity continues, pushing the prices higher, until a point of exhaustion is reached. The market might also go sideways,
but as supply dries out, the prices cannot go higher if there are no sellers left. At this point, you should have realized that every buyer needs a seller and
every seller needs a buyer. Coining it further this means that every buyer in the NOW is a seller in the FUTURE and vice versa. What would you do, if you have,
f.e. bought at 8 and the price is stopping and you are seeing (in the orderbook) that most buyers are gone?
Selling limit or even market to the buyer at 11 seems reasonable, which will get you a profit of 3.
And so prices are turning around, as the future buyers and futures sellers deal their deals forth and back.
As you might know, this is also the case for falling prices and you might play it through by yourself.
C. Times and Sales
In short, the “Times and Sales” is a continuous list plotting all transactions of one or more exchanges - depending on your product and broker.
It is tremendously vital in reading actions happening in the moment such as absorptions, reversals, exhaustions and others.
As of now, @TradingView has no implementation of it, but I’m sure it is planned in the future.
Another possibility to visualize conducted business on a specific price level is a volume profile plotting the volume in horizontal lines, as shown in the picture below.
I will explain volume profiling in the future, but as you can see: the strong plotted area in the middle is the price range,
where most of the trading business has been conducted thus where the most interest in business was and where the fair value of the asset is estimated by the traders.
Key Takeaways
From the moment you have bought, you are a future seller.
You are not dealing with NPC’s (at least if your broker is reliable), but with other people.
Watch out for rotations!
Don't be the last to sell nor the last to buy!
Because remember:
The devil takes the hindmost.
___
Note:
As I’m writing a book about reading a chart,
I am going to post a couple of short articles on this topic and others related to it, e.g. trend, volume , Dow theory, auction theory and behaviorism.
If you are spotting some errors or if you like to add something, feel free to comment or pm.
Cheers,
Constantine -
p.s.: This article is not intended as any kind of trading advice. If anything concerning this topic remains unclear, drop a message or a comment.
Thanks to all for reading and I hope it will help you in your analysis and your trading career.
[Trade Review]How I traded $SQ, $HD HUGE FUMBLE, $TLRY, $MSFT, $In this video I will reviewing trades I took on June 29, 2021 which were $SQ, $HD, $TLRY, $MSFT, $baba Along with an explanation of my plan as well showed you guys my TA for some possible set ups! Traded these tickers using my knowledge of technical Analysis , sharing my levels: Support & Resistance , my trendlines , Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emma's, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always!
Want to see more content like this? Make sure to Like and Subscribe!
Price Action vs Indicators: Who wins?Happy Friday, ladies and gentlemen. The topic of our first educational post for the day is the following: Price Action vs Technical Indicators.
To begin with, each and every traders has his or her own strategy. Some of them would prefer using only indicators to open trades, some would use indicators as confluences, some of them do not use indicators at all and so forth. The truth is, indicators deceive a lot of new beginner traders into thinking that they are the key to successful trading and investing. Right after hoping on the charts, beginners tend to saturate their graphics with tons of indicators which contradict to each other. One indicator shows a buy signal, another one shows a sell signal, which makes it harder for traders to make decisions on the markets. Of course, using some spesific indicators as confluences to open positions is not bad at all. If it fits your strategy, you may add some technical indicators to backup your analysis. But at the end of the day, using several indicators and saturating your beautiful graphs with them will never lead you to success.
All in all, as it has been stated above, everyone has his or her own strategy. Therefore, if indicators work for you, go ahead and implement them in your analyses! At the end of the day, it is all about making money, isn’t it?
Have an amazing Friday and a brilliant upcoming weekend, everyone!
📉 Your Ultimate Guide to RSI Divergence (Settings & Tips) 📈
Hey traders,
Relative strength index is a classic technical indicator .
It is frequently applied to spot a market reversal.
RSI divergence is considered to be a quite reliable signal of a coming trend violation and change .
Though newbie traders think that the application of the divergence is quite complicated, in practice, you can easily identify it with the following tip s:
💠First of all, let's start with the settings .
For the input , we will take 7/close .
For the levels , we will take 80/20 .
Then about the preconditions :
1️⃣ Firstly, the market must trade in a trend (bullish or bearish)
with a sequence of lower lows / lower highs (bearish trend) or higher highs / higher lows (bullish trend).
2️⃣ Secondly, RSI must reach the overbought/oversold condition (80/20 levels) with one of the higher highs/higher lows.
3️⃣ Thirdly, with a consequent market higher high / lower low, RSI must show the lower high / higher low instead.
➡️ Once all these conditions are met, you spotted RSI Divergence .
A strong counter-trend movement will be expected.
Also, I should say something about a time frame selection .
Personally, I prefer to apply it on a daily time frame , however, I know that scalpers apply divergence on intraday time frames as well.
❗️Remember, that it is preferable to trade the divergence in a combination with some price action pattern or some other reversal signal.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Technical Analysts already knew that Bitcoin will dump! Head and Shoulder
Often considered the most steadfast of all major reversal patterns, the Head and Shoulders chart pattern is employed by novice and experience traders alike to speculate on both forex and stock markets. The benefit of this chart pattern is defined areas to set risk levels and profit targets.
The inverse (reverse) head and shoulders pattern is equally useful in any trader’s arsenal and adopts the same approach as the traditional formation.
This pattern already notified us of BITCOIN DUMP.
Also, I earned a lot from Bitcoin because of Support and Resistance.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE + Trading Pattern = Best Combination =>> Profit$$
IBM case study: Breakouts after 2500 days correctionToday, I observed the IBM chart, and I noticed this huge descending channel on the daily chart since 2013, and I saw that the price was breaking it. So, I decided to go to a higher timeframe to look for similar scenarios in the past, and yes!!!!!, having data since 1985 allowed us to see how this type of situation evolved in the past. Here are my conclusions
First Conclusion: Consolidations last between 2500 and 3000 days. That's a lot...
Second Conclusion : After we have a clear breakout (always using the most external trendlines of the consolidation), the price makes small corrective movements on the edge of the structure with a duration between 150 - 300 days. The key aspect here is that we can see an ABC pattern all the time.
Third Conclusion: Based on the two scenarios we have, we can see that in the second one, we had a failed setup on the first consolidation. However, the second one worked pretty well. "Be open to failed setups, and trade again if the 150 - 300 days corrections come again.
Fourth Conclusion: The bullish movements that come after these consolidations (the ones after the breakout) goes between 90% to 500%
So what is the idea with this? The idea is that we can create a scenario where we know what we are waiting for before trading. In this case, we want to see a breakout of this 3000 days consolidation followed by a small correction around 150 - 300 days. If that happens, we will trade the breakout of it, and we will aim to have an open setup for 1 to 2 years. We think that the risk-reward ratio we can have on these types of setups is above 7 to 1. Using 2% of the capital on a setup like this can provide a 14% return over a year or two (ONLY risking 2% of your capital). The post's main objective is to show that you can create trading maps on any asset with the correct amount of past data, study previous scenarios and get ready for a current situation.
Thanks for reading!
📉 Your Ultimate Guide to RSI Divergence (Settings & Tips) 📈
Hey traders,
Relative strength index is a classic technical indicator .
It is frequently applied to spot a market reversal.
RSI divergence is considered to be a quite reliable signal of a coming trend violation and change .
Though newbie traders think that the application of the divergence is quite complicated, in practice, you can easily identify it with the following tip s:
💠First of all, let's start with the settings .
For the input , we will take 7/close .
For the levels , we will take 80/20 .
Then about the preconditions :
1️⃣ Firstly, the market must trade in a trend (bullish or bearish)
with a sequence of lower lows / lower highs (bearish trend) or higher highs / higher lows (bullish trend).
2️⃣ Secondly, RSI must reach the overbought/oversold condition (80/20 levels) with one of the higher highs/higher lows.
3️⃣ Thirdly, with a consequent market higher high / lower low, RSI must show the lower high / higher low instead.
➡️ Once all these conditions are met, you spotted RSI Divergence .
A strong counter-trend movement will be expected.
Also, I should say something about a time frame selection .
Personally, I prefer to apply it on a daily time frame , however, I know that scalpers apply divergence on intraday time frames as well.
❗️Remember, that it is preferable to trade the divergence in a combination with some price action pattern or some other reversal signal.
❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
HOW TO SPOT A MARKET REVERSAL: A beginner's guideHappy Friday, ladies and gentlemen. The topic of our first educational post for the day is the following: How to spot a possible market reversal. Of course, there are many strategies and various methods one can implement to identify a reversal in the markets. The method that we will be talking about today is relatively simple and really effective.
We use two methods to determine a possible reversal: Double Top/Double Bottom pattern formations or break of a trendline. As it can be inferred from the chart, both of the cases of a market reversal strategy that we implement can be noticed.
The first one is a Double Bottom Reversal. When the price manages to create a Double Bottom/Double Top on higher timeframes, it means that the price has not been able to break the structure and is on his way to reverse. Looking at the graph, we can observe that the price’s attempts of breaking the 1678-1680 level of support to the downside resulted in being unsuccessful. Therefore, a nice double bottom formation had been formed and the price started moving to the upside from there.
The second approach is even more simple, we just follow the trend. Remember the saying: “Trend is your friend until the bend in the end”? That’s right, if the price manages to break an uptrending or a downtrending trendline, it’s time to reverse for the most part. Looking at the chart, we can see that the price failed to create a new Higher High, and it broke the uptrending trendline to the downside and started dropping massively.
That's it for the topic of "Market Reversals", family! Hope you enjoyed it. If you have any suggestions on what kind of educational posts we should post next, feel free to let us know in the comment section below!
Have a nice day and an amazing upcoming weekend!
[Trade Review]How I traded $CRM, $TLRY,$U, + psychology TALK In this video I will reviewing trades I took 6/16/2021 which were $CRM,$TLRY $SQ that were posted in a pervious video about the set up on my New Series *Set Ups For the Week Traded these tickers using my knowledge of technical Analysis , sharing my levels: Support & Resistance , my trendlines , Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emas, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always! In the second part of this video I rant about trading phycology and use yesterdays loss as an example I hope yall enjoy!
All About The Trendline.Hi,
Trendlines: if you do not have any rules to draw the trendline (TL) then this is the most subjective technical analysis criterion of all.
Without any rules, you can draw it basically as you want to see it. It is a perfect criterion to talk yourself into the trade or to talk to stay in the bad trade, always there is a new "support" coming. If you do not have any rules to draw it then basically all the time you can find some dots to connect which can seems "perfect" for you.
In this post, I'll talk about buying opportunities from the trendline analyzing crypto and stocks. Some rules to draw it and some typical mistakes you should avoid.
Let's start from the basics. Obviously, you know that to draw a trendline we have to connect two points and waiting for the third one to reject from it. Easy yes!? NB: For me, the third and the fourth touch are the most reliable touches to wait for. The strongest trendline comes from the points which are easily recognizable - a blink of an eye.
If you start looking deeply from where to draw a trendline then keep in mind that it is not the strongest! One second and you will know from where I should draw it!
There are some "experts" who say: you cannot draw a trendline without three touching points. Phh...as you see on the image above, I can, and as said if I have a correct lineup the third touching point is the strongest.
The second myth for me: the more touches you have on the trendline the stronger it is. Yes, the trend is probably stronger, but for me, every next touch increases the odds for a break/trend change.
Sure, I have done great trades from fifth or form the seventh touch but in general, the criteria crossing area has to be quite strong and it has to consists of many strong criteria to do that.
Why I don't like to trade for example fifth or sixth touch? Firstly, the trend is your friend until its end. The market moves up and down, as said the more touching points you have, the odds will go higher for the trend change.
Think like that, basically TL works as a support and the support is hmm...like the 5cm ice on the lake. You cannot break it with one hit, you cannot break it with second or third (ok If you are strong then you can :P). Fourth, fifth it starts to crack, and the sixth...booom...you are in the water. I don't know was it a good parallel but for me, it works the best - the more touches you have the lower chance for sustainable further growth it is.
RULE nr. 1
It is true, that you can draw it in many many ways but let's talk about the first rule. If there aren't any anomalies then the trendline should be drawn "always" from wick to wick (image above) or from body to body. "Always" because there are some cases from where you should draw a bit wider trendline but in general it should be like the prementioned rule.
If you start from the wick and the second point is from the body then this is a mistake. The mistake can lead you into quite an ugly trade/investment. If you trade breakouts then it will be misleading for you, if you trade rejections from TL then it will put you in a thought situation - do I should close it if it falls lower or whatever, simply don't do it.
If you don't have any significant large wicks then go from wicks. Usually, it will give you the most precise price zones from where to grab something. If you can draw the trendline but one touching point consists of large/huge wick (selling panic or whatever it was) but on other hand, it is quite a normal price action then use candle bodies to draw the trendline. This panic-wick can mislead you. Drawing from the bodies just widening the buying area a bit but still, it gives you a good zone to keep an eye on.
If there are a lot of wicks, then there is also a good way to go with a line chart instead candlestick.
Candlestick chart
Line chart
As you see the line chart removes the market noise and you can simply see the closing prices. I use it quite a lot because some altcoins or stocks are quite jumpy and to remove the noise I use a line chart to determine the strongest areas. Stora Enso Idea
Let's jump into rule number two. If we will wait for that third touch then there are quite a lot of small rules to keep an eye on. We want to be perfect so let's find a perfect trendline.
RULE nr. 2
It increases the odds of rejection from TL if the price has made a new higher high (HH) after the previous rejection.
As you see, after the third touch of the trendline, the price has made a new HH and the fourth worked perfectly.
- two touching points, we can draw the trendline, waiting for the third touch and if it comes the market has made a new HH after the second touch and we are ready to take it.
Summary: After the price prints the second point from where to draw the trendline we have to see a new higher highs formation after every touch. This is a great sign that the trend is strong and if everything lines up perfectly we can step in.
RULE nr. 3
It increases the odds of rejection from TL if the touching point timings/length are pretty much equal.
After the price has printed a new higher high and coming back down to make the third one it is great to see symmetric between touching points. At the moment, we have a great symmetric and trendline as a criterion is in place! This simple rule shows you that the market is healthy, moves on decent cycles as it should be, no pumps, no dumps just a simple and clean one.
The second example:
As you see gaps are quite similar and the 4th touch worked almost perfectly. Waited for rejection and stepped in after I saw a decent volume from the trendline.
They cannot be the embarrassingly accurate length, otherwise, they would be extremely few, but they cannot be as in the picture below.
Uuuh...this is ugly and actually, I see it quite often. The first and second points are too-too close considering the third touch. The third touch comes in the middle of nowhere but as said, it is a perfect way to talk you into the trade/investment. This is ugly, it is with a very low success rate so try to avoid it.
The most important rules are in place and now it's a good time to talk about mistakes. I cannot say that they are 100% wrong but in general, these mistakes can be with a very low hit rate.
Sometimes looks like we have all set and ready. We can draw perfectly from wick to wick, we have new higher highs after touches, we have an equal length between touching points but it just doesn't work. Obviously, from time to time it happens but most of the time there are some reasons behind that and one of them can be the angle of the trendline.
It is a bit subjective but for me, the best angle of the trendline stays between +-20 to +-35 degrees (in TradingView you can use it). Then I can trust it the most. I remember that the most common mistake for me I tried to buy too sharp angles 45+ degrees. To long below 20 or above 35 degrees you should have a lot of criteria to match with the trendline to determine the strong setup otherways try to be cautious if it doesn't fit inside my given numbers.
Next common mistakes:
As you see in the image above, after the third touch, we haven't seen a new higher high but the price already touching the trendline. It isn't a good sign for further growth. Does the bulls have lost their momentum or for whatever reasons the market didn't print the new higher high. This can be simply one of the trend reversal signs, bulls have lost their momentum and cannot print new ATH for example. Read between the lines and do not consider buying from the trendline if the market hasn't made a new higher high. Obviously, you can but as said, it can be a bit lower hit rate.
Here is also a second mistake, another no-go criterion for me. Do you know it already? Go and look...
Yes, correct! ;) Firstly, we haven't seen new highs and secondly, the trendline touching points (1 to 2, 2 to 3, 3 to 4) are not at a similar length. The fourth touch comes too early/fast. Another rule which can ruin your "perfect" trade from the trendline.
So, two simple mistakes to avoid. To get a better success rate from the trendline you should wait for a new higher high formation and the market cycles should be quite similar between touching points.
Breakout trades.
If the trendline looks strong but cannot get any support from other criteria then I'll start to look at selling opportunities after the breakout.
As you can assume, this isn't as simple as some guys on YouTube will sharing with you. I have also some rules here to make breakout trades.
Firstly, the price should come from an all-time high or from a mid-term high, print a short-term lower high, and then breaks. This is a good scenario because then there are some FOMO retailers who bought from the top, got a little hope for a bounce upwards, and as you should know, really often they get punished who bought the top.
Secondly, and most importantly, the break must occur with a strong and powerful candle without any significant lower wick. Basically, if you have clean touches from the trendline then it has shown its strength and the strong candle break confirms it even more. How? If the price falls below the trendline just simply with small candles then it doesn't show the strength enough to trust it on the retest. A strong and powerful candle needed! We need to see that power because after the break we start to wait for a retest of it. The strong candle shows that the trendline is still valid but in vice-versa before it acted as support now it starts to act as a resistance. Another example.
Let's talk a little bit about the timeframes. Obviously, the higher is the timeframe the stronger TL is. If I analyze stocks then I trust the most monthly and weekly timeframe. Considering crypto, there I use Daily and 4H but most likely Daily. To be said, 1H is the minimum.
That's about it. The post got quite a big one. uuh...simple trendline yes?! ;) A lot of left unspoken (minor trendlines, how fast it can come to touch it and etc.) but in general you should get at least something from here to add to your analysis. Was fun to write it but this is just the beginning. I have 15 criteria to analyze the charts. Maybe I should write an e-book about technical analysis what you think!? :) Trendline is just one of them and it isn't even the strongest criterion on my list. Doing the analysis I have 15 criteria and depending on the timeframe 3 to 7 of these 15 must be in one strong area together! So don't just go for a trade/investment if you only have one criterion, the trendline.
Hopefully, you like it, all the best!
Vaido
[Trade Review]How I traded $PLTR, + TALKS ON EUPHORIA/ LOSSES In this video I will reviewing trades I took on 6/15/2021 which were $PLTR taking a small loss practicing my risk management not a problem since im confident i will make it all back. Traded these tickers using my knowledge of technical Analysis , sharing my levels: Support & Resistance , my trendlines , Fibs, Waves, Price Action, Channels , Emas, and prior experienced , while providing both bullish & bearish scenarios for you to be able to understand my analysis and wait for confirmation as always! Make sure to leave a comment for feedback about cutting back on the trading review videos let me know guys! Will be making videos on trading phycology due to the euphoria in the market so look out!






















