How I Analyze Stocks Part 3 Step 5 will be a very big summary so get your reading glasses on!
First Divergence+ shows exactly what it is titled as, Divergence... So what is the plus? It offers insanely accurate buy and sell signals. So accurate it cost a monthly subscription on top of your trading view subscription if you are a paid member
As price increases Divergence+ forms a green shadow beneath the bearish candles based on opposite price movement and a red shadow showing opposite price movement when a stock is going up. This price movement may be opposite but not strong enough to sway the market price. However the larger the shadow the more likely price change will happen and when it is strong enough a green or red arrow is initiated ( buy/sell signal ) I use this information to make future price prediction
Guth_3x_Confirm is a form of bollinger bands, it creates trend lines based on price and volume. This indicator I am referencing to is at the top of my chart. The green is the price and the red is the volume. With this stock you can see that the price has plateaued and the volume is decreasing. This is a signal that the stock price could move downward. When the change is dramatic and at a specific low or high a red or green band is given as a buy signal ( green ) or sell signal ( red )
Kurotoga Cloud is used to see where support and resistance is. Support is the lowest a price will fall before it rises and resistance is the highest a price will rise before it falls. If a price breaks through resistance or support it will most likely continue rising or falling at an unrestricted rate, or at least until a new support or resistance is formed.
MACD is the king of divergence, it shows divergence in correlation with the moving average. The MACD at the second to the bottom of the chart shows 3 pieces of information, two trend lines. One showing price and the other showing volume, while there is also a bar graph that shows the strength of the buying and selling. The lengths of the bars show growing or weakening volume and the shade shows if it is leaning red or green. These indicators can be used to foresee future price movement.
RSI Relieve Strength Index shows an instant valuation based on buying and selling strength. A high RSI shows that the stock is over priced and a low RSI shows that the stock is overbought. When a stock is under-bought, buyers buy in and when they see that it is oversold they sell. Overbought and Oversold are just fancy words for being over priced or under priced. But remember over/under priced does not equal over/under valued.
I hope this 3 part learning series helped, see part 4 to see my personal analysis on NVDA based on the above indicators.
Technical Analysis
How to Counter Trend Trade (Divergence)This is a quick tutorial on how to trade against the trend for a possible reversal. I think this might be the best strategy online for counter-trend
Feel free to ask any question and don't forget to like the video and follow me for more set ups and tutorials
Thank you
DAX Loves Head and Shoulders PatternA Head and Shoulders pattern is a chart formation that appears as a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In Technical Analysis, it describes a specific chart formation that predicts a trend reversal. The head and shoulders pattern is one of the most used reversal patterns because of its good reliability.
Here the example of the DAX index, where the pattern has been effective 6 times in the last 13 years (Bullish-to-Bearish case).
How to Spot Blow-off Tops - ES1!Here are 3 blow-off tops and 1 failed attempt which all occurred in the last 7 months. Successful completions are marked in solid black. The failed attempt is shown in dotted black.
On all 4 attempts, the price accelerated upwards to different degrees. Each target can be roughly measured based on the price move.
Notice how the failed blow-off begins closer to a price bottom than the successful ones did.
Volume was either steadily increasing or declining during successful blow-offs, compared to the unsuccessful attempt when volume was not clearly trending.
ROC (momentum) was increasing with all 4 attempts. The blow-offs were successful when momentum was at 0 or positive at the start of each blow-off.
Disclaimer: This is my opinion. This is not advice. Trading involves risk.
Pattern: how to use for make moneyCan you see the green light turn on? Cross the road. Can you see it raining outside? Take an umbrella. Do you see that there is a formed pattern on the currency chart? Analyze the market, specify which pattern it is, predict the price behavior, spend your profit.
A pattern is a graphical figure on a chart created by repeating price combinations and displaying the pattern of price movement.
Classification:
Trend continuation patterns (after a pattern is formed, the price continues to move in the same trend in which it opened it).
1. Classic triangle
It is formed by two lines, one of which is located on the chart at right angles to the coordinates (level). To form a pattern, at least 4 price touches are required. And you can start trading only after the pattern is completely formed - in this case, the price breaks through the level, “fixes on it by means of a rollback and continues to grow.
2. Pennant
Here, the upper line of the figure is not the level, but that line. Both lines must not be parallel (otherwise it will be "Flag"). If a straight line is drawn from the vertex of the intersection of the lines, it should divide the line of the figure base in half. The mechanics of the pattern: 4 touches, complete formation of the pattern, rebound from the line, opening a trade.
3. Flag.
To form this figure, only three points are needed and its slope on the chart can be absolutely any. There is no need to wait for the price to form a pattern and leave the pattern. The deal is opened after the price rebounds from the third point.
Reversal patterns (change the direction of the trend after the completion of the formation)
1. Head and shoulders
Depending on the trend, it can form at local lows (in a downtrend) or highs (in an upward) price. “Neck” is a straight line at the base of the figure. After the complete formation of the pattern, we can expect the price movement equal to the size of the pattern's height: from the middle of the “neck” to the top of the “head”.
2. Double / Triple Top-Bottom
The pattern is very similar to the Head and Shoulders, with the difference that the extremes (tops of the pattern) are located approximately on the same line. The “Double Top” pattern type implies the presence of two extremums and is a “bearish” pattern - that is, after its formation, the price changes its trend from upward to downward. “Double Bottom” is on the contrary a “bullish” pattern that changes a downtrend to an uptrend.
3 Wedge
Almost like a triangle, but incomplete. Feature: slope down (downward) or up (upward). The lines of the figure intersect, but not in the foreseeable space, but if they are mentally lengthened. In a reversal pattern, prior to the formation of a pattern, there should be no momentum that determines the direction of the trend.
Do you use patterns in trading?
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How to Trade the Breakout of a Range 101In this post, we will learn how to trade the breakout of a clear range. Let's start learning.
a) First of all, we need a clear Range ( we can say that is clear when we have a support and a resistance level and the price in between for a considerable amount of time)
b) From a technical perspective, the expected movement after a range is broken is the extension of it in the broken direction (green arrow)
c) Also, we will see how that projected movement fits in the context of the chart. In this case, we will look for the next resistance zone.
d) The correct way of identifying a resistance zone is by looking for clear reversal movements in the past. Ignore small corrections. Look for reversal movement and define it with a horizontal line ( in this case, we used 2 yellow arcs to show the idea)
e) Now you can see two things. 1) The projected distance of the range is very similar to the distance towards the next resistance zone 2) You have good space to try to catch a wave
f) But how can I trade a situation like this? You need a CONFIRMATION. In this case, we always wait for corrective structures (remember that corrective structures can be Flat, Zig Zag, Triangles, or Irregulars)
g) Wait for a clear corrective structure on the Edge of the broken Range. IF that happens, you need to define its edges, and from now, it's straightforward. (You can also look for a corrective structure on a lower timeframe; for example, if you define the range on the 4HS chart, you can change your timeframe to the 1H chart.)
h) Open positions on the Breakout of the structure, Set stop loss below the structure, Set take profit on the next resistance zone, Define the risk you will take on the trade
i) Use this as an archetype on how to trade this type of structure.
Have a great day!
Learn the "Gann Fan" in just 3 StepsGann theory has been widely used in various fields of finance. To learn to apply the Gann angle line, two problems need to be solved, namely, point selection and volatility. The question about volatility is in the Gann angle line. This article will mainly talk about the problem of selecting points.
The selection point of the Gann angle line is generally selected from the important top and bottom. When selecting, you can judge which point to choose based on your actual operating experience. But depending on the long-term trend, you can choose the Gann angle line starting from zero, which will play a very important role in future predictions.
We took NASDAQ as an example. In the chart, We have learned how to apply the Gann fan to a chart or the trend. It's complicated, but I tried to make it easy to understand and easy to apply. I have used only 2 to 3 things to perfectly apply the Gann Fan.
Gann fan is useful to all the traders, It can be applied to all the time frame.
In the investment process, Many investors like to buy bottoms. This is everyone's ultimate pursuit. That's because every market has important tops and bottoms. Analysis of this position is to make your own funds safer, with minimal risks and greater profits. These will use the Gann angle line confluence position. The force formed at the intersection of the rising angle line and the falling angle line can often form a reversal trend.
In " Financial Analysis Trends ", the grades are divided as follows:
1×1 intersects with 1×1
1×2 intersects with 2×1
1×3 intersects with 3×1
1×4 and 4×1 intersect
1×1 intersects with 1×2 or 2×1
1×1 intersects with 1×3 or 3×1
1×1 intersects with 1×4 or 4×1
1×2 intersects with 1×4 or 4×1
Above is the information about the Gann fan for education purposes only.
My favorite indicators update [part 2]An update on my use of indicators. Going to throw my thoughts out my thought process if you're interested.
In my last "My favorite indicators" idea I placed the moving averages in the ones I do not use, they were top of the list thought the first ones that come to mind and make most sense. They are no substitute for a complete analysis but you need a starting point and when you are scanning 40 different charts you want to make it simple.
I've been turning the trend indicators on and off (and probably will continue doing that).
Right now using EMAS again. Not too many I don't want the chart to get all nasty, no full GMMA that hide the price. Just 2 fast moving EMAS.
Fast moving but not dumb either. What I get out of those is I see the daily trend because they are daily ones, I don't need to have D1 & H4 side by side.
"My eyes are trained to see the trend" BS I keep doing random stupid things buying too early...
I've not really been trend following for long, I used to with crypto during the bubble because it was too easy but otherwise I had an edge doing something else, I must be 1 in a million doing this xd Most retail fight the trend and lose, professionals follow it I fight vertical moves and idk worked out so far.
Helps filter baddies, helps spot what is going on faster (I have a watchlist of 40 charts I can't every day full analyse them all I need to filter first), they look great I love the blue and red. Goes faster to have the daily trend on the 4 hour chart, don't have to look at 2 charts side by side and zoom in and out and always have to reajust the screen etc.
But honestly the main point is probably I like how they look. The red & blue. Makes a good looking chart I think.
Makes it look all technical and professional and I just love the colors. Isn't that the most important part? Having fun and wanting to look at the charts.
I kept losing this month. A good 17 losses in a row even with 1 potential winner I missed out on.... All those losses really ate up my other strategies profit. Pissed. Had +5 and +7 on a strat /3 and +5 -17 on my trend following strat for a grand total of 0, and then a few breakeven and +1 -1 zzzz Tried to make it with EURUSD had a wide trailing stop but it really bounced and all I got was 1R... Of course. And I have 4 positions now of course it's all slow 2/4 are more long term and this usually doesn't even move far from the entry where I can count it as a winner for a good month. And the other 2... We will see. Not counting the positions > 3 month horizon.
I doubt 90% would survive these situations, well I did have winners that absorbed my losses so it's not that bad actually.
And I choose to machine gun every setup with my new strategy (started as revenge trading at the start of the year and since I kept winning I looked into in again took a few good setups in the summer while backtesting and working on the strategy and then september I apply my rules and go for it for real and keep losing 🙃)
Normally I take, with the other 2 strategies, like 18 setups a year each. So 3/month total. And with this trend following I should probably take another 3/month not over 20...
Constant re-evaluation etc. So... I spent all of July to September backtesting improving and thinking this simple pullback trend following strategy.
I starting using it in the first 3 months of 2020, and had alot of knowledge from the start I did not start from zero.
I did not spend my whole days on it I looked at plenty of other things.
I would vaguely estimate I spent 8 hours a day on it for 3 months that's a total of 720 hours. And it's a rather simple strategy.
Just trying to get a decent strategy with a few setups here and there, that works for me.
Meanwhile complete noobs that aren't especially smart expect getting consistently profitable in 3 months with 1 hour a day on the side.
I tried looking at the oscillators again, see if they filter things I do not want.
This joke:
Versus:
On top of this, using arbitrary numbers, in a month there is 30*16 = 480 hours, and 16 hours a day, say on the average day I:
- Spend 4 hours going out to not go crazy (wups failed my objective here) as well as eating and sometimes playing
- Spend 4 hours reading articles watching videos that I count as grinding my skillz & knowledge and posting on tradingview
- Spend 4 hours backtesting improving estimating probas and doing boring things like taxes
- Spend 4 hours doing research on potential setups AND managing trades (2 hours for the 30/month + 2 hours for the 3-4 I actually end up taking)
That's it. There are no more hours on the day as you see. They get eaten up fast.
If I get overwhelmed with these trash RSI signals... how many hours will that take? Should I spend less time doing my DD on other setups and miss out the good ones or take bad ones? Should I eat up hours in the backtesting (even if I'm happy with my strategies I want to adapt to changing conditions). Then I can spend less time doing loose research (articles & videos) or the "leisure" and burn out and also potentially miss some important info, some piece of news...
Not going to post the whole RSI analysis (I can't even if I wanted it's all over the place I have stats & screenshots spread everywhere it's really disgusting).
But I am 100% on this. It is not for me. Or anyone else. Sucks beyond belief. I don't know maybe there is a microscopic edge in using it oh cool.
How well will that hold up after 20 loss in a row? Continue using it? Consider it doesn't work anymore? Flip it?
So that was an equity curve of some "many setups" strategy, maybe something with the RSI or macd lines firing mediocre signals over and over.
They really look like this. Well they would if anyone sticked to it.
Now an equity curve with less setups but being more picky with alot of research time spent on studying the currencies or other instrument (enough to avoid really bad setups and to be more precise and to manage it better at least).
And then of course when you reach the scholarly peak and go for diversified strategies (it isn't possible in my experience to have that much diversification but a little is possible. Basically if you tried diversifying too much you'd end up repeating the same strategies but with different conditions or taking positions too large by trying to diversify via assets because assets are correlated you can't have 10 different strategies but you can have a couple by having different timeframes different markets and some reversal if that's possible careful most fail and some trend following if quant then also arbitrage and so on holding fixed income too can be added but not only the markets aren't offering infinite uncorrelated possibilities but also each strat that you add is hundreds or thousands of hours to design and then alot of time and attention to manage and execute)
But with 2-3 strat that equity curve would look something like this...
Can strategies be completely uncorrelated thought? They're likely to all use some support and resistance analysis. It's sort of the same for forex stocks etc. Liquidity area. There aren't 30 ways to do this. What if S&R changes, what if they don't matter for whatever reason? Then it all falls down.
Just trying to use a simple example to show it can't all be uncorrelated. Even if you held bonds as an additional profit stream, their yield will change and it will impact the trends etc...
Oh and let's be real, the market does not provide an endless number of setups. I never heard of anyone that made money in choppy markets (if they do they are on a higher TF where it is not choppy). Even my reversal strategy is for trending markets. Some people say they trade inside ranges well even if they do and aren't just lucky lying or delusional there are very few clean ranges so here.
I do not remember ever hearing Goldman Sachs or Bank Of America or JP Morgan Chase going "ok we think the kiwie is going to stay in a range so we will buy it at the lows because it is oversold".
It's either "Based on the research presented, the trend, the fundamentals, the market conditions/past data, here are our 3/6/12 months targets" or "we think the euro will continue going lower" or "we think the usd rally is not over so we are still long" or "we see a ranging market we have no position".
You really got to bring the retail swing traders to come up with this kind of stupid crap 😂
Here is a quote from an investment banker active on social networks:
"Its 80% fundamental, 20% Technical. Professional Traders don't day trade often so day trading is a small part of a much larger overall approach. There's no such thing as swing trading in professional trading circles. That was something made up by brokers for the retail market. To be honest I had never heard of it until I started teaching retail traders and someone told me what it was. I laughed out loud when they told me! No Joke."
I don't know all the kinds of weird messed up strategies the various funds have but as far as I know bankers look for momentum.
How many opportunities there are day trading if there are some is irrelevant just look at the daily chart and how many are there matter for this thought process, because if day trading did better than real trading I think we'd f**ing know by now and every hedge & mutual fund would be looking for day traders. So ye, not that many opportunities realistically per strategy (day trading can be an additional strategy but there are only 16 hours in a day at some point I really don't think more than a couple is possible and 2-3 max probably with day trading), even over a good dozen instruments (like a dozen fx pairs).
Even Jérôme Kerviel that lost 5 billion looks for big movers, big volatility :D
Last thought: Howie Hubler made a successful short bet against the trend (or bubble rather) in subprime mortgages in the U.S (the big short) except he got the money from selling insurance on AAA morgages (the rating companies are basiclaly trolls) and he lost 9 billion 1 shot aaaaand it's gone. Rekt.
I've heard of plenty of trend followers (systematic or discretionary) Bitcoin bagholders from 2012 George Soros on the yen/Nikkei early buy/sell Warren Buffett..., I've heard of plenty of countertrend success (Enron shorts, 2007 CDS, Soros against the pound and SEA countries and so on), never heard of the "great flat market range trader". Well with the exception of the great signal providers and educators of course. Even Livermore didn't make money in ranging market but Livermore has alot to learn from 20 years old Ricky & Forex Lambo lifestyle & some random dudes in comments with 6 month old accounts and that have been offline for 2 years since then and whoever promotes this.
THE BIG PICTURE: Health is everything! Man and Money vs Virus! I think this chart will be of interest, in overlooking the big picture. I say what I see and it is largely about a health timebomb approaching. So I deal with some technical and hidden fundamental issues.
Always say what you see on the charts! Remember TA is about sentiment - until reality catches up.
1 - A popped bubble.
2 - A reinflated bubble.
3 - A reinflated bubble struggling to remain inflated.
4 - Total daily cases of COVID continuing north.
5 - Total daily cases is rising above the area of struggle in the DJI.
Note that the DJI represents sentiment in the top 30 major organisations - so it is important.
I entirely accept that because total daily cases is summative, it is not a sound measure of the impact of the virus on health or control of the virus.
But think deeply - yes these are fundamental issues - representing ' reality '. The total number of people infected means that a percentage of them will suffer lasting effects of the virus e.g. central nervous system problems, mental health disorders, clotting disorders, lung problems, heart problems and exacerbations of previous illnesses. This means there is a mounting economic burden that isn't quite realised by leaders.
Why is biotechnology and services servicing those industries flourishing? Obvious - isn't it.
Healthcare directed at fighting COVID has left lots of people with significantly reduced care for non-covid related conditions. What happens to those people? It can be expected that their health will deteriorate. I can't go into a whole list of medical conditions - but it's massive. There is only minor focus on the economic impact of that. Nations need 'health' for workforces to contribute well to 'the economy' and to service debt.
Our leaders have focused on 'the economy' and preventing a major financial crash that was coming anyway. The virus was just the pinprick. There was in the UK recently a situation where health set against the economy. This was misguided simply because health is the economy.
When people think of health they usually think of physical health. However, there is another ticking time bomb of mental health problems . Nobody knows exactly how big this is gonna be. If you thought people with physical health problems were neglected, then it is much bigger for those with new or pre-existing mental health problems. People who are mentally disabled but were managing with aids, adaptations and supervision aren't getting all that as they would have pre-covid. Is this likely to improve in the next 6 months? I don't think so.
How can economies recover if they are beaten by seriously damaged physical and mental health of its workforces? Difficult one.
Financial hardships are projected to get worse into Winter, in the northern hemisphere. That's not good for physical or mental health.
I have little doubt that agents of the FED will pump this market north, and that Robinhoods will punch the air with the FED. However, you can't create a sound economy built on thin air. The bedrock of a sound economies are the health of people.
If money printing would solve everything, then GDP and employment (of various types) would be irrelevant. Surely they aren't irrelevant.
So - expect the unexpected, is what I'm saying. Near 100% retracements in the face of such fundamental issues has to be suspect. There could be a big 'drop' coming - so stay alert (no predictions today - only probabilities). Those hoping for Gold to rocket north may also have a surprise.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Technical Analysis OverviewThe investment decision is based out of two different ways:
Fundamental Analysis: Analyzing a company's financial statement
Technical Analysis: Understanding the market sentiment behind price trends
Technical Analysis
The study of statistical trends, collected from historical price and volume data, to identify opportunities for trade.
Assumptions of technical analysis
Market discounts everything
History tends to repeat itself (psychological)
Price moves in trend (reflexive)
Trend
A trend is the overall direction of a market or an asset's price identified by trendlines.
Three possible trends:
Uptrend: Asset going up, making higher highs or higher lows
Downtrend: Asset going down, making lower highs or lower lows
Sideways: Asset trades in horizontal channel
Technical Analysis considers: (Basics of Technical Analysis)
Price
Chart Patterns
Volume-Momentum Indicator
Oscillators
Moving Average
Support Resistance levels
Movements are not linear, the price will face resistance as it goes up or support as it goes down.
-Resistance: Level where an uptrend can be expected to pause or rebound due to a concentration of sellers.
-Support: Level where a downtrend can be expected to pause or rebound due to a concentration of buyers.
Technical Indicators broadly serve three functions to alert, to confirm, and to predict. There are two types of indicators:
Leading Indicator: Leads the pice, generates a signal for trading opportunities. Eg. Oscillators i.e. RSI, CCI, Stochastic, Williams %R, Momentum, etc.
Lagging Indicator: Follows trends and patterns, reduces the risk in exchange for missing early opportunities. Eg. Moving Averages, Bollinger Band, and MACD.
A few myths about Technical Analysis:
TA is only for short trading or day trading-
TA can be used in all time frames, from 1 minute monthly charts
TA has a low success rate-
Solely TA can give you profits if used effectively
Technical Analysis is quick and easy-
Continued success requires in-depth learning, practice, good money management, and discipline
Ready-made technical analysis software can be helpful-
Such software may provide insights about trends or patterns but cannot guarantee profits, use of backtesting is necessary
TA can provide price predictions accurately-
TA is about probability and likelihood, and not guaranteed thereby price ranges can be predicted
The winning rate in TA should be higher-
Profitability does not depend solely on win-rate, it also incorporates risk-reward ratio
Limitations of Technical Anlaysis
Tend to give mixed signals when used in isolation, confusing traders
TA is all about probability and signal cannot guarantee a successful trade even after thorough analysis
Often technical analysts use indicators in different methods and may form a biased view regarding the same stock
Many a time the technical signal may lag, and by the time proper signal is generated it is possible that the trade might be over
A single trading strategy may not work in all scenarios as markets tend to be extremely dynamic
Few Trading Mistakes Beginners Make:
Starting with real money
The best way to get acquainted with trading rules is to have a demo with virtual money before investing in real money, you can perform paper trades on Mudrex
Not examining situation by yourself
Make your own strategy, test them on the Mudrex platform, and then follow the same plan to trade by understanding things on your own
Inevitable Losses
Set risk limits for yourself and trade accordingly and accept the losses you face
Margin Trading in the beginning
It is not recommended to margin trade until and unless you understand the risk completely as crypto trading is rewarding yet risky
Following the herd
Before making a start with real money, make a set of rules which needs to be followed and have stop losses to limit the loss incurred on your trade
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EURUSD: Long Term Perspective & Trend Analysis
hey guys,
I know that many of you are expecting a coming bearish movement on a daily on EURUSD.
analyzing a weekly time frame though, I want to warn you that the pair has still much space for a bullish continuation.
on a weekly, the price is clearly trading in a global bearish trend.
spring's covid bullish rally made the market set a higher low and triggered a bullish rally,
and it looks like a long term goal for buyers is 1.21 - 1.25 wide supply cluster.
this zone is based on 2008'th, 2010'th, 2012'th lows and 2018'th high.
in my view, a strong weekly bearish movement will most likely start from that area.
however, what makes me extremely cautious is the recent higher low.
usually, it is the first strong signal of a coming trend change.
if the above-mentioned zone is broken buy buyers, It will signify a long term bearish trend violation and start of a new long term bullish trend.
as always we can only speculate about the probabilities of both events.
but clearly decision point is close.
How to Capture more Profit through Trend Line AnglesTheory:
When I'm trading trending markets above the 4hr and daily timeframes, I often use trend angles to understand the rate of change as the market gets faster and steeper.
Today I'm going to use Gold as an example.
I have been trading this asset for a while as it has been trending well on a casual upward slope of approx 14 degrees.
Around July 20, the angle changed to 30 degrees... This is twice as steep, indicating stronger momentum.
Around the July 23, again the angle increased and this time to 52 degrees - almost double again.
On July 27 (today at time of publishing) the angle changed again to 76 degrees.
Using the trend angle tool, I can see the rate of change and how steep the trade has become.
Trading Tactics:
Each time the angle changes, I draw a new trend line and add an alert to the most recent inner trend line. This is now my priority.
As the trade develops, I can review the progress.
If the most recent inner trend is broken, that's the first red flag for me.
I can choose to sell a few contracts/shares/units and begin to scale out.
At the break of the most recent support directly below the inner trend line, I will scale out even further.
If a second trend line or a major channel is broken in addition to the inner trend and support, I will scale out completely.
Summary:
This tactic has allowed me to capture maximum profit without having to set up a trailing stop loss. Although a trailing stop can work exceptionally well in some circumstances, this is an alternative option.
Hope this helps!
Have you used similar tactics or a similar strategy?
NOTE - This is purely educational content and none of it should be taken as financial advice. I am sharing a tactic that works for me personally, with no guarantee of results being replicated.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Weakening Market & Consolidation
Crude oil is becoming weaker and weaker.
though many fundamentalists promised a quick return to "normal" price levels after the lockdown removal,
it looks like things are much more complicated than that.
if you are a swing trader and you are looking for an opportunity to jump in in the market,
I guess it is not the best moment.
for the entire month, we could not set a new high.
ATR drops as crazy and volatility is missing:)
let the market start moving.
let it pick the direction and then just act accordingly.
swaps are now very expensive on oil, so no need to incur these losses.
The Best Way to Trade Nonfarm Payrolls!The unprecedented world wide Coronavirus pandemic has put the markets on edge and set expectations really low for virtually all financial data points. Considering this, Non Farm Payrolls came in very strong, or at least not as bad as expected. Stocks reacted accordingly, and this tutorial is about how stocks react to strong numbers. This occurs in three phases:
Phase 1: Initial reaction - In the event of a number that the markets perceive as 'strong', stocks will rally accordingly. This usually continues until they hit a Fibonacci level or other technical level, or traders take profits.
Phase 2: Retracement/Squeeze - The rally discussed above usually will continue to around 9:00am or so. Don't forget that NFP comes out at 8:30am which is before the North American open. At this point, futures traders have taken profit, and stock traders are gearing up for the open. Watch the Kovach OBV to make sure that this retracement is not a reversal!
Phase 3: Continuation at open - At 9:30am, the US markets open, and stock traders clamour into trades pushing the markets up again. Stocks could retrace later on in the day, or set the stage for strong growth in the subsequent week.
Hopefully this tutorial can help you set up for some good trades if you see this behavior! If you want to learn more, check us out at Ghostsquawk!
Special Analysis for Bitcoin: Is Bitcoin prepare for bull run?Hello guys, in this technical analysis I want to talk you about why Bitcoin is so prepare for bull run soon? Now, I selected the Weekly and Daily timeframe.
Now, in weekly we see a Bitcoin bearish for MACD and price action, but there are a lot doubts that respald that a drop what a much traders hope, it's can be fake drop and the price is can to prepare to go to break up the simetric triangle from 2017.
But for this information we need to see in Daily timeframe, that is the key what Bitcoin do.
But in Daily timeframe, we see a reality so different than Weekly, because Bitcoin is now into this bullish rising wedge in formation and find up the Elliot Wave D, to later go to drop for the E to find down, and later we proyect for Bitcoin so bullish scenario reaching at $11,500 USD. That is a possible target to see in few weeks. Also the MACD is show us a possible buy!!! Now, if I asking you about if this scenario it's could be to pass. Are you prepare for there? Now, in that case that this rising wedge fail and broke down, we can see a Bitcoin so bearish until the $7,000 USD again. But, the key is in Daily timeframe how we see the trend key, structure and condition for midterm.
EURGBP: Key Levels & Structure Analysis
hey guys,
EURGBP has broken above a key daily structure last week.
Here are the key levels from where we will be looking for new trading opportunities.
0.90 - recent resistance that turned to support after a breakout
0.93 - major resistance and 2019's high
0.95 - major resistance and 2020's high
just in case of the start of a selling rally here are the key supports:
0.87 - mid-term 2020's support
0.83 - major support and 2020's low
the safest and the most accurate trading opportunities are always on key levels.
let the market reach on of those and then look for a signal.
Pitchfork Trend | XAUUSD | EducationOn the analysis you can see a perfect example of a pitchfork trend on the chart. In this case it is the price of gold. A Pitchfork trend is particularly good for entering and exiting a trade on the right time. You can see in the past there where good chances to go in with BUY until the end of the Pitchfork trendline.






















