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Treasuries

Top Is In? Ugly GDP Print and 10 Year Treasury Yields Break DownI've been waiting for today to arrive as the Q2 GDP print is in and was ugly as expected. The awful number reported (a -32.9% collapse) was expected but I'm looking for some "trigger" that might change the market mood and I've suspected the GDP number could be it. Seeing the worst GDP decline on record, even worse than during The Great Depression, might be a wake up call for the majority of people that never look at economic data, despite the fact it was "expected." In support of that suspicion is the 2nd major event I was waiting for: a breakdown in treasury yields. The last few months 10 year treasury yields have NOT rallied with stocks creating this huge disconnect between a euphoric equity market and a glum bond market--and again this is something the average Joe doesn't watch. Today the yields on the 10 year treasury broke down from the support we've seen holding for months (shown on the chart in blue). It even broke below the spike down that happened on April 21. Yields are breaking lows, bond values are rallying, and this is exactly the opposite of what should happen if the stock market rally were on solid footing. Unless yields reverse and go back up, I'm calling this an early indicator that the stock euphoria has been wrong and the top could be in.
TShort
by MystryBox
6
US dollar - US Treasuries Divergence The US dollar correlates positively to US Treasuries. Market participants needs US dollar when buying US Treasuries as investments or as collateral. Now we see a pretty sharp diverence and break of that correlation. One would anticiapte a return to mean of this relationship. My base-case is that the dollar will follow bonds and get bid up. In short, my reasoning is as follows: If liquidity continues to be tight, as low interest rates and central banks going crazy are signaling, the dollar will catch a bid as it's still the world reserve currency. Regardless of my bias: when macro correlations diverge, its time to pay attention.
NASDAQ:SHY
by eirikb007
1
10-YEAR US BOND YIELDS BREAKING DOWN - BEARISH for SPXUS 10-year Bonds have broken out of 2 triangles now and breaking down. I count 5 waves in this massive triangle that formed between March 8th and June 24th with the final wave "e" itself being a triangle with 5 subways. Remember - triangles - per Elliot rules - are found either as wave 4's, wave B's (middle of a correction) OR as wave E's as the final "wave" of another bigger triangle. Since the breakdown out of these 2 triangles, the lower trendline of the larger triangle was tested at least 4 or 5 times from the underside, and each time was rejected - confirming the significance of this lower trendline and the subsequent breakdown in yields. I anticipate this yield breakdown will accelerate to the downside with strong bearish implications for the SPX, Dow, etc. An interesting observation is that the 10-year rose after making its low on March 8th - while the SPX made its low on March 23rd - 15 days later. Bonds yields are not confirming the rise in the SPX since the 10-year broke down on June 24th and now we are 28 days later so the divergence is past due for the SPX to now play catchup to the 10-year and move down. Cheers! Cyrus
TVC:US10YShort
by cyrusgr8
5
US 10 Year yield looks to be heading lower soonThe 10 year treasury yield looks ready to resolve its multi-month consolidation triangle to the downside. There's room for another run up to the .70% area over the next couple weeks, but I ultimately believe we are heading for lower yields. Note the fairly swift rejection from the rally above the 50MA at the end of May / start of June. I'm not making any plays directly on treasuries, but watching closely because a definitive break lower in yields would signal that stock markets may be heading for a major risk-off move.
TVC:US10Y
by ZChartDoc
TLT Bull Flag - Heading to 170 and BeyondWhen looking at the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) exchange traded fund (ETF), it is important to consider whether or not interest rates are likely to rise or remain low. Here, the relationship between Treasury yield bonds and interest rates is key to understand. Generally speaking, if you predict interest rates to rise in the future, it is best to avoid long-term bonds (such as the TFT, which is a 20-year Treasury bond) that could lock in a lower interest rate. However, if you believe interest rates will fall, then it makes sense to invest in an ETF like the TFT. Long-dated U.S. Treasuries remain the best non-derivative hedge for Canadian investors. Now there will be a time when we won’t want to touch US Treasuries with a 10 foot pole but for now, Treasuries and the U.S. dollar are still seen as safe haven assets and should provide us protection if/when stocks falter.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by TMoneyBidness
10 yrTreasuries look to be signaling that yesterday & today are in fact buy the dip we have risk on sentiment coming next couple weeks. If we check the weekly RSI 10 yr yields r very overbought, coincidentally so are all major indices RSI weekly indicators. Conclusion is we are in the final chapters of the bull market since March and another crash is imminent. But will likely be another opportunity to buy the best dip before another massive bull market over the next few years.
TVC:US10YLong
by Big_Mike716