TNX has been trading within a 1M Channel Down since 2000 up until January 2018 when it broke the pattern upwards. The mini uptrend found Resistance on the MA200 and has been declining for the past 7 months. We are currently on the most support tests of all, as it has touched the 2000 Channel's Lower High trend line and will test it as a Support for the first time....
May's "Risk Off" has catapulted Long-Term Corporate Bonds (LQD) and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) into two of the top 5 performing assets YTD: LT Corp Bonds: +10.41% 20+Year Treasuries: +9.02%
May's "Risk Off" has catapulted Long-Term Corporate Bonds (LQD) and 20+ Year Treasury Bonds (TLT) into two of the top 5 performing assets YTD: LT Corp Bonds: +10.41% 20+Year Treasuries: +9.02%
All my thoughts are on the chart. For reference, definition of treasuries yield curve: According to Investopedia, the yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. More specifically, the yield curve captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors. The U.S. Treasury Department issues bonds with...
A number of string events appear to be shifting the economic landscape around the world of late. Extreme euphoria one year ago ("Economies are booming, time to raise interest rates more"), turned into panic at the end of 2018 with slowdowns across the board. The prompt support provided by US officials (is keeping markets going up their job?), made everyone forget...
Getting close to inversion. If the 10y keeps the breakout momentum up, we will invert soon.
Treasury yields look to be breaking out of a triangle pattern from LT support. Pullbacks could represent a chance to join move higher
DANIEL BRUNO, CMT BE SURE TO SEE MY T-NOTE CHART LINKED BELOW LONG TERM TREND IS DOWN CURRENTLY AT THE 2/1 GANN, INFLECTION END OF MARCH AT CROSS OF 2/1 WITH THE 45 DEGREE 1/1
The inverse correlation of Stocks and Bonds have been quite telling in the recent months of equity volatility. The 10Y yield went from 3.25% in early Nov to lows of 2.55% as participants flew to safety in treasuries. In the last couple weeks as equities have recovered from the Dec 24th meltdown, treasuries have been sold with yields resting now around...
IEF has bounced off of its double top created during the recession. This has created a hard support. Not only that it has bounced off of it before in a similar fashion between 2013 and 2014. Volume is dramatically increasing at this level, the moving averages are flattening out. All of these are bullish signals. * This information is not a recommendation to...
I believe NASDAQ:TLT is breaking out. The main thesis I have been following is global slowdown is coming within the next 2 years. If this occurs the Fed's hand will be forced to stimulate the economy by having constant or lowering rates. From this we can derive that NASDAQ:TLT must go up since rates and bonds are inversely related. Finally with ...
The relationship between MERVAL and US Treasuries spread.
This is an attempt to forecast the yield on treasury notes based on technical analysis. Clearly this is an incomplete analysis as fundamentals will also impact heavily. So let us consider the following a base case. First, there are trends in the yield. I would not call it cycles because they have different duration. Those thends tend to last a longer time, more...
DOUBLE TREASURY FUTURES BUTTERFLYE +14 * ZT - 37 * ZF + 23 * ZN - 5 * TN
CBOT:UD1! The UD1! is on up trend and explains where all the stock market money has gone the past week...lol. I think I understand yield curve, but missed this one. ; )
1) Due to the zig-zag nature of the yield values, historically, it seems proper to use Elliott-waves. 2) There was a rate-hike environment in the past which seems similar to the current price action. Coincidentally the wave 5 drop corresponds to the year 2020; 2020 is the year many talking heads are calling for a US recession. 3) In recent years bonds and stocks...
First Inversion of the 5/2 spread. This is no less important than the well-known 10-2 spread.
Nothing huge here, just watching for this trend to break as many others have recently. Major trend breaks = regime change. If this falls out of the pattern here, I expect the yield curve to invert not all that long afterward.